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    oh shoot ok I will go take a look thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    oh shoot ok I will go take a look thanks
    he asks so many questions in so many threads he can't keep up.

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  4. #33
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    I know I act like this is a forum, its crazy of me!

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    I wonder what that game does if RAS does not release that pick today. Do you think that line still flips if RAS did not release that pick or bet today?

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    my guess is no

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    Highly unlikely it would move as far as it did, but at the same time, it closed Dream -2 at many books and was Dream -2 -115 at CRIS. You'd think if there was any pro Sky sentiment someone would have taken the +2.

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    so my question is, is that line now effecient
    we knows its a small market. It does not get much public money I would assume so if RAS with its network puts out a play and 25 people jump on it that sways it way harder than it was. I actually modeled Sky -2.5 and that was looking correct until RAS made its play. I make MLB plays and I see the book I am using move the line a cent or 2 when I do, obviously my opinion does not count as sharp or making the market more effecient. So forget the long winded is the line now effecient? SMart Money RAS money said +2.5 was a cheap price so tehy played it but did they think it was 4 points cheap??? I highly doubt they did, I am guessing they had it a +1 or so or maybe even PICK. I wish RAS would chime in unless of course an answer would be exposing something they may not want as public knowledge.

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    Highly unlikely it would move as far as it did, but at the same time, it closed Dream -2 at many books and was Dream -2 -115 at CRIS. You'd think if there was any pro Sky sentiment someone would have taken the +2.
    I dont think its a big enough market. I think a pump from RAS has a huge impact on the small WNBA market but not sure of course, just guessing at best

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    so my question is, is that line now effecient
    we knows its a small market. It does not get much public money I would assume so if RAS with its network puts out a play and 25 people jump on it that sways it way harder than it was. I actually modeled Sky -2.5 and that was looking correct until RAS made its play. I make MLB plays and I see the book I am using move the line a cent or 2 when I do, obviously my opinion does not count as sharp or making the market more effecient. So forget the long winded is the line now effecient? SMart Money RAS money said +2.5 was a cheap price so tehy played it but did they think it was 4 points cheap??? I highly doubt they did, I am guessing they had it a +1 or so or maybe even PICK. I wish RAS would chime in unless of course an answer would be exposing something they may not want as public knowledge.
    I wouldn't put a ton of stock in how good your line was before Ras made a play. The game tipped at noon and wasn't on the board for very long prior to their release.

    Someone asked Ed if he would play Atlanta +1.5 and Ed replied on Twitter that he'd play it to pick em.

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    I wish when they posted the plays they would give us their line so we know how much we can go before stopping betting. I mean if they Got Atlanta -2 and the line is +2.5 I bet now its +2 I bet now its 1 I bet Pick I bet and stop there but if I dont know what they had I can only bet when its +2.5 because that is the play they gave even though I think he said a half point lower is ok, I am not sure but RAS said something like that!

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    I wouldn't put a ton of stock in how good your line was before Ras made a play. The game tipped at noon and wasn't on the board for very long prior to their release.

    Someone asked Ed if he would play Atlanta +1.5 and Ed replied on Twitter that he'd play it to pick em.
    so they had it Atlanta favorite by probably a couple points if he would have taken it at pickem, That would be good info to have when it was betting time, I could have got down 2 or 3 times on that game as it moved I would be able to bet again! 20 bets could become 60,now I would like that!

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I dont think its a big enough market. I think a pump from RAS has a huge impact on the small WNBA market but not sure of course, just guessing at best
    If *anyone* in the market liked the Sky, why wouldn't they at least bet at +2 -105?

    If Ras released Sky -2.5, do you think it would close Sky -6?

    Also, it's an early season Ras WNBA release. Surely someone was willing to play through 0 and take worse numbers through the 1s.

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    Dude RAS can move an NFL line and you dont think they have a huge huge impact on the WNBA?

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    I think bet the other side of course but not near with the force and bettors from everywhere betting Atlanta, Books know when they get bombarded on a game that this happened and they probably over adjust to try and control the flow, they dip low to slow it down and then try to find neutral ground I assume, of course I dont know any of this as fact

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    so they had it Atlanta favorite by probably a couple points if he would have taken it at pickem, That would be good info to have when it was betting time, I could have got down 2 or 3 times on that game as it moved I would be able to bet again! 20 bets could become 60,now I would like that!
    Lines move around all the time. I just went back and looked at the last cbb public season from 2017 (there is no archive listed for last year's service) and 25 of 344 releases finished with 0.0 CLV or minus. That's obviously a small percentage of overall releases but it's still 7% of the time.

    If Ras said what every play was good through, it would hurt your ability to add more later if the market moved the line back/near the release line later in the day.

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