Betting Talk

TommyL's 2018 Soccer Plays

TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
edited March 2019 in Sports Betting
Behind schedule vs. the last few World Cups due to life getting in the way (new job, travel, coaching son's soccer team, kids in general). Took some time off, but back into it over the past several weeks as I've been gearing up for Russia 2018 (the USA debacle probably contributed to my difficulty getting started with everything). I should finish up my initial plays in the next few hours, and will throw them into this thread.

Below is a link to my 2017 thread. Ended up +44.735 units with an ROI of 15.8%.

http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/180208-TommyL-s-2017-Soccer-Plays?highlight=Tommyl+2017+soccer
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Comments

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2018
    I took everything from 5Dimes or Bookmaker. If you've got access to Pinnacle, some of these can be had for a better price.

    Russia doesn't advance from Group A (+255 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 3.825 units
    Egypt wins Group A (+575 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 5.75 units
    Iran advances from Group B (+700 @ 5Dimes) .5 units to win 3.5 units
    Spain wins group B (-195 @ Bookmaker) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
    Peru wins Group C (+1024 @ Bookmaker) .5 units to win 5.12 units
    Peru advances from Group C (+220 @ 5Dimes) 2 units to win 4.4 units
    Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590 @ 5Dimes) 2.36 units to win .4 units
    Argentina wins Group D (-149 @ Bookmaker) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
    Costa Rica wins Group E (+1998 @ Bookmaker) .2 units to win 3.996 units
    Costa Rica advances from Group E (+400 @ 5Dimes) .5 units to win 2 units
    Germany wins Group F (-235 @ Bookmaker) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
    South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450 @ 5Dimes) 2.25 units to win .5 units
    Panama advances from Group G (+1100 @ 5Dimes) .2 units to win 2.2 units
    Belgium wins Group G (-115 @ Bookmaker) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia wins Group H (+135 @ Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
    Japan advances from Group H (+230 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
    Poland doesn't advance from Group H (+150 @ 5Dimes) 2 units to win 3 units

    Saudi Arabia/Russia under 2.5 (-134 @ 5Dimes) 2.68 units to win 2 units
    Egypt +.5 Uruguay (+122 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
    Iran +.5 Morocco (-149 @ 5Dimes) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
    Portugal/Spain over 2.5 (+132 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.32 units
    France -1.5 Australia (-130 @ 5Dimes) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
    Peru -.5 Denmark (+268 @ Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 2.68 units
    Costa Rica +.5 Serbia (-115 @ 5Dimes) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    Sweden -.5 South Korea (+118 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 1.77 units
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2018
    They actually still hold this thing when the US doesn't qualify? :surprised:

    GL. I'll actually be on vacation in Alaska for the entire group stage and honestly can't say I'd be following it as closely as usual anyway.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Two more futures...

    Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600 @ 5Dimes) .4 units to win 6.4 units
    Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000 @ 5Dimes) .15 units to win 6 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    One for today (from 5Dimes)...

    Saudi Arabia +.5 Greece (-161) 1.61 units to win 1 unit
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Wooooo! Tommy L Soccer and Summer coming, life is good!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Goes in about 10 minutes (from 5Dimes)...

    Egypt -.5 Kuwait (-106) 1.06 units to win 1 unit
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I heard on vsin that Croatia is a live side for WC, do you agree with that?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    I heard on vsin that Croatia is a live side for WC, do you agree with that?

    A lot of people seem to like them from what I’m hearing, but I’m not as high on them. If anything, I’ll probably be fading them some if the current prices hold.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    my friend says this line is way off.
    2:30PM
    91660.

    Gimn?stic Tarragona
    -1 +112
    -164
    O 2? -107


    Props
    15826.

    Huesca
    +1 -126
    +450
    U 2? -101


    15827.
    Draw

    +275
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I heard on vsin that Croatia is a live side for WC, do you agree with that?

    Any team with a midfield of Modric, Rakitic, Kovacic and Perisic (or a combination thereof) with Mandzukic, Kramaric and Kalinic (or a combination thereof) in attack is going to be a live-side. They won their group at Euro 2016 by beating Spain and Turkey. They would have very probably made it to the Final Four if not for the bonkers 3-3 draw by Hungary and Portugal, which got them an early look at Portugal in the round of 16 where they lost After Extra Time by a 117th minute goal by Cuaresma.

    Looking at their group in Russia, they have a very good chance of finishing 2nd or 1st. Group D is pitted vs Group C in the round of 16 which would see them play either France/ Australia/Peru or Denmark. A match vs France would be very difficult to win, all the others they 'd be favorites against.

    So yes, in my opinion they're a live side, but it's going to be very difficult for them to reach the semi-finals. I would want to see how they get through the friendlies in the coming weeks. How tired are their players, how many injuries do they have, how is the coach's tactics holding up? Then I might bet them.
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Tommy....you like anything in the Champs final today?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Uruguay to win Group A (-105 @ 5Dimes) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Tommy....you like anything in the Champs final today?

    I don't cap anything on the pro side, outside of some CONCACAF Champions League stuff and a rare future or friendly where I think I found an edge. Certainly don't think I'd ever have an edge in a game as big as today's (though glad I'm watching, as the Salah injury was enough to push me towards Uruguay who I was already on the fence with playing).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Friendlies over the next few days (all from 5Dimes)...

    Monday, 5/28

    Portugal -1 Tunisia (-158) 1.58 units to win 1 unit
    Ireland/France over 2.5 (-118) 1.18 units to win 1 unit
    USA -1 Bolivia (-138) 1.38 units to win 1 unit
    Saudi Arabia +2 Italy (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit

    Tuesday, 5/29

    Peru -1, -1.5 Scotland (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units

    Wednesday, 5/30

    Japan -.5 Ghana (-120) 1.2 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Coming back for more on this one (from 5dimes)...

    Portugal -1.5 Tunisia (+147) 1 unit to win 1.47 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Coming back for more on Peru (from 5Dimes)...

    Peru +.5 Denmark (-128) 1.28 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    Thursday (5/31)

    Chile/Romania over 2.5 (+117) 1 unit to win 1.17 units
    Senegal -1.5 Luxembourg (+122) 1.5 units to win 1.83 units

    Friday (6/1)

    Colombia -.5, -1 Egypt (-135) 1.35 units to win 1 unit

    Saturday (6/2)

    Iceland -.5 Norway (+109) 1 unit to win 1.09 units
    Mexico -.5 Scotland (-353) 1.765 units to win .5 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    YTD Result: -3.2 units (ROI: -16.6%)
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Wednesday (6/6)

    Belgium -1, -1.5 Egypt (-117) 1.17 units to win 1 unit
    Panama +1 Norway (-156) 1.56 units to win 1 unit

    Thursday (6/7)

    Costa Rica/England under 3 (-169) 1.69 units to win 1 unit
    Portugal -1 Algeria (-148) 2.22 units to win 1.5 units
    Iceland -.5 Ghana (+124) 1 unit to win 1.24 units

    Friday (6/8)

    Saudi Arabia/Germany under 3.5 (-103) 1.03 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    A bunch of World Cup Props/Futures, plus some plays on the second wave of games (all from 5Dimes)...

    Russia under 5.5 points (-127) 1.27 units to win 1 unit
    Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
    Denmark under 3.5 points (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
    South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
    Poland under 4.5 points (-109) 1.09 units to win 1 unit

    Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
    Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
    Best CONCACAF Team - Costa Rica (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units

    Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
    Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units

    Egypt/Russia under 2 (+116) 1 unit to win 1.16 units
    Portugal -.5 Morocco (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
    Portugal -1 Morocco (+125) 1 unit to win 1.25 units
    Argentina -.5 Croatia (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia E Poland (-138) 2.76 units to win 2 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    And since having 2/3's of my bankroll pending isn't enough, one more friendly...

    Saturday, 6/9

    Spain -.5 Tunisia (-307) 1.535 units to win .5 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Goes off in about 10 minutes, but they didn't adjust this one enough as the game line moved heavily towards Portugal (from 5Dimes)...

    Portugal HT/Portugal FT (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    TommyL wrote: »
    Goes off in about 10 minutes, but they didn't adjust this one enough as the game line moved heavily towards Portugal (from 5Dimes)...

    Portugal HT/Portugal FT (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit

    Solid win,
    game became a joke at the end,
    but I really liked their passing, strategy of keeping the field wide, very crisp and quick one-touch passing, always looking to go in the direction of the opponent goal. This team is playing at a very good level.
  • milfhuntermilfhunter Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Tommy,

    Any future World Cup plays? Thoughts on Uraguay winning their group and Saidia Arabia Under 2 points?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    milfhunter wrote: »
    Tommy,

    Any future World Cup plays? Thoughts on Uraguay winning their group and Saidia Arabia Under 2 points?

    A good chunk of this thread is World Cup plays...as with anything, those really come down to the price. I think the current prices that I see on Uruguay are about right (I did play them at -105 a few weeks ago, but they'd be tougher to play in that -135 or -140 range). For Saudi Arabia, I thought about playing them over 1.5 points (+175), but ultimately decided to pass. I don't think there is value in fading them, since I have major questions about the rest of the group (not that there aren't questions about Saudi Arabia too).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Solid win,
    game became a joke at the end,
    but I really liked their passing, strategy of keeping the field wide, very crisp and quick one-touch passing, always looking to go in the direction of the opponent goal. This team is playing at a very good level.

    I'm liking their path to the quarters with their current form (looked sharp today, and an impressive draw in Brussels last week). I hate everything about Group A, so being in Group B is a big advantage for them come the round of 16.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    One more for today (goes in just over 15 minutes)...

    1st half Serbia -.5 Bolivia (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Some more World Cup Futures...

    Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
    Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
    Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
    South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
    Russia is Lowest Scoring Team (+6600) .1 units to win 6.6 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    YTD Result: +2.8 units (ROI: +8.9%)
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Most likely no more plays on friendlies heading into the big event next week. Here is everything I have pending heading into the World Cup...

    Russia doesn't advance from Group A (+255) 1.5 units to win 3.825 units
    Russia under 5.5 points (-127) 1.27 units to win 1 unit
    Egypt wins Group A (+575) 1 unit to win 5.75 units
    Uruguay to win Group A (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
    Iran advances from Group B (+700) .5 units to win 3.5 units
    Spain wins group B (-195) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
    Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
    Peru wins Group C (+1024) .5 units to win 5.12 units
    Peru advances from Group C (+220) 2 units to win 4.4 units
    Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590) 2.36 units to win .4 units
    Denmark under 3.5 points (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Argentina wins Group D (-149) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
    Costa Rica wins Group E (+1998) .2 units to win 3.996 units
    Costa Rica advances from Group E (+400) .5 units to win 2 units
    Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
    Germany wins Group F (-235) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
    South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450) 2.25 units to win .5 units
    South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
    Panama advances from Group G (+1100) .2 units to win 2.2 units
    Belgium wins Group G (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia wins Group H (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
    Japan advances from Group H (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
    Poland doesn't advance from Group H (+150) 2 units to win 3 units
    Poland under 4.5 points (-109) 1.09 units to win 1 unit

    Saudi Arabia/Russia under 2.5 (-134) 2.68 units to win 2 units
    Egypt +.5 Uruguay (+122) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
    Iran +.5 Morocco (-149) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
    Portugal/Spain over 2.5 (+132) 1 unit to win 1.32 units
    France -1.5 Australia (-130) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
    Peru -.5 Denmark (+268) 1 unit to win 2.68 units
    Peru +.5 Denmark (-128) 1.28 units to win 1 unit
    Costa Rica +.5 Serbia (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    Sweden -.5 South Korea (+118) 1.5 units to win 1.77 units
    Egypt/Russia under 2 (+116) 1 unit to win 1.16 units
    Portugal -.5 Morocco (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
    Portugal -1 Morocco (+125) 1 unit to win 1.25 units
    Argentina -.5 Croatia (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia E Poland (-138) 2.76 units to win 2 units

    Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600) .4 units to win 6.4 units
    Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000) .15 units to win 6 units
    Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
    Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
    Best CONCACAF Team - Costa Rica (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units
    Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
    Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
    Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
    Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
    Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
    South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
    Russia is Lowest Scoring Team (+6600) .1 units to win 6.6 units
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