Betting Talk

TommyL's 2018 Soccer Plays

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  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    The rest of my plays as Thursday approaches. Should be it (already have almost 3/4ths of my bankroll in play), unless something really moves into range (though I'm sure I'll have some props on individual games)...

    Russia under 5 total goals (-140) 1.4 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
    Morocco last in Group B (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Croatia last in Group D (+640) .5 units to win 3.2 units
    Switzerland last in Group E (+350) .5 units to win 1.75 units
    South Korea last in Group F (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
    Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units

    Mexico -.5 South Korea (-116) 1.74 units to win 1.5 units
    Peru -.5 Australia (+110) 1 unit to win 1.1 units
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    With the World Cup costing Russia over 11 Billion $$$, and given the 2 countries' economic and political ties, I seriously have to consider the fact that Mohammed Bin Salman will fix the first game and let the Russians 'win'. For all the prestige he was supposed to get, fielding the worst Russian team in decades has to be deflating and embarrasing for Putin. Can't see MBS rubbing it in.

    Price on Saudi Arabia is definitely too high right now.

    Anyway,
    Best of luck with all your plays Tommy!!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Will end up with a bunch of "no actions", but all are mispriced...

    Artem Dzyuba no goals scored (-170) 1.7 units to win 1 unit
    Aleksei-Miranchuk no goals scored (-240) 1.2 units to win .5 units
    Denis Cheryshev no goals scored (-325) 1.625 units to win .5 units
    Aleksandr Erokhin no goals scored (-485) 1.455 units to win .3 units
    Anton-Miranchuk no goals scored (-550) 1.65 units to win .3 units
    Muhannad Asiri no goals scored (-925) 1.85 units to win .2 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Can't go worse than yesterday, goes in 10 minutes...

    Andre Silva no goals scored (-440) 1.76 units to win .4 units
    Gelson Martins no goals scored (-900) 1.8 units to win .2 units
    Ricardo Quaresma no goals scored (-800) 1.6 units to win .2 units
    Marco Asensio no goals scored (-600) 1.2 units to win .2 units
    Iago Aspas no goals scored (-300) 1.2 units to win .4 units
    Rodrigo Moreno no goals scored (-230) 1.15 units to win .5 units
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    how many different sports do you bet?
    how many plays do you get out of say a card of 10 games normally?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    how many different sports do you bet?
    how many plays do you get out of say a card of 10 games normally?


    I’ll follow some others in a variety of sports, but the only sports I originate (outside of a random play here or there) are international soccer and NCAA basketball (and with that, I took the year off with basketball). I literally had about 75% of my total bankroll tied up in soccer games earlier this week (including credit), so I couldn’t play much else right now if I even wanted to.

    As far as number of plays in a card, it all depends. If we are talking African qualifying, maybe 2% of the games. North American games, maybe 40%. World Cup, probably about 5 things per game between props, futures, straight plays, etc.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    thanks, just trying to get a grip on how many plays I should be finding generally in a slate of games, thanks for the info!
  • shoeboxshoebox Member
    edited June 2018
    good work today!

    little unlucky on Egypt but still a good result with Iran and then Spain over

    now that you free'd up some credit anything you would add in the group stages?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Good timing shoebox

    Some more plays...

    France HT/France FT (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    Saudi Arabia +2.5 Uruguay (-134) 2.01 units to win 1.5 units
    Spain/Iran under 2.5, 3 (-111) 1.11 units to win 1 unit
    Best Asian Team - Iran (+300) 1 unit to win 3 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Game is on 6/27

    Germany -1.5 South Korea (-138) 2.76 units to win 2 units

    It's my favorite game of the group stage (now that we know it will mean something for Germany, and South Korea is as crappy as I thought).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    If all goes as expected with the second wave of games, these will drop like a rock (and still not horrible plays if one of them does slip up)...

    Belgium/England under 2.5 (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
    Belgium/England to draw (+240) 1 unit to win 2.4 units
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    In the post today the VSIN pick is for colombia to win ....three way betting , what does that mean , i assume to win ml ...draw ml and not sure about the other one , is it minus a goal ???

    thanks
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    any opinion on the total in Poland game today?

    thanks in advance.
  • ct5320ct5320 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    In the post today the VSIN pick is for colombia to win ....three way betting , what does that mean , i assume to win ml ...draw ml and not sure about the other one , is it minus a goal ???

    thanks

    Typically when they talk about a 3-way line it includes the draw, so the 3 "ways" would be Columbia, Japan, or draw (vs a straight ML bet where draw would be a push). In this case it sounds like they are saying to take Columbia on the 3-way line. Which is the same as Columbia -.5
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    any opinion on the total in Poland game today?

    thanks in advance.

    Not really. Was close to playing Poland TT under, so lean Senegal/under, but ultimately passed.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Fedor Smolov no goals scored (-440) 2.2 units to win .5 units
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    ct5320 wrote: »
    Typically when they talk about a 3-way line it includes the draw, so the 3 "ways" would be Columbia, Japan, or draw (vs a straight ML bet where draw would be a push). In this case it sounds like they are saying to take Columbia on the 3-way line. Which is the same as Columbia -.5

    thank you
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Russia/Uruguay under 2 (+109) 2 units to win 2.18 units
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    so tommy , colombia lost 2-1 yesterday at -155 , what would the other 2 bets losses be , i see the -1/2 at -150 and draw at +265 which is another -100 ....so in a three way bet they would be -4.05 ....would that be right ?

    thanks
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    so tommy , colombia lost 2-1 yesterday at -155 , what would the other 2 bets losses be , i see the -1/2 at -150 and draw at +265 which is another -100 ....so in a three way bet they would be -4.05 ....would that be right ?

    thanks

    I don’t really understand the question, but I’m guessing it’s because you’re a little confused on what the 3-way bet is...it’s just the same as any other bet, just that you’ve got a third option (the draw). So with you bet Team A to win, team B to win, or the game to end in a tie.

    So if they were -155 to win and they didn’t win, you lose 155 for every 100 bet to win.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I got it ...just dont understand why thats a smart way to bet ..

    Col to win lost -155
    japen wins +130
    draw lost -100 at +265

    thank you
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    I got it ...just dont understand why thats a smart way to bet ..

    Col to win lost -155
    japen wins +130
    draw lost -100 at +265

    thank you
    That’s not an accurate portrayal of the lines ( at least lines that anyone sharp is playing). Japan would be a bunch higher. The hold percentages on the wagers themselves shouldn’t change much betting the three way lines, it just gives additional options on the game.
  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Tommy
    any thoughts on Iceland total tomorrow.
    thanks again.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    TommyL wrote: »
    That’s not an accurate portrayal of the lines ( at least lines that anyone sharp is playing). Japan would be a bunch higher. The hold percentages on the wagers themselves shouldn’t change much betting the three way lines, it just gives additional options on the game.

    I got you but thats the lines they will use if they ever post records and units won/lost
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I think for us pure American sport guys, that 3 way crap is weird. I think the main reason they do it is because so many games are a draw that so many tickets would cancel and that would suck for bettors and the books. Wins and losses are still the same in the US sense. I mean a 3way bet is basically a 2 way bet but with a -.5 point to every bet and of course you get paid better for taking the -.5.
    China +150
    US +270
    Draw +190
    is basically in an American odds world the same as
    China -.5 +150
    US -.5 +270
    Draw +.5 +190
    and dont even get started on that Asian handicap stuff, I mean with that Asian handicap -.25 gives you half your money back if your team loses by 1 and all kinds of for us different stuff. here is a link to a table for Asian if you are so interested which I am not, LOL
    https://www.betshoot.com/asian-handicap-betting/
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think for us pure American sport guys, that 3 way crap is weird. I think the main reason they do it is because so many games are a draw that so many tickets would cancel and that would suck for bettors and the books.

    Europeans think American betting is weird too, no love lost there. European betting has so many more options, that US betting looks simple. To wit:
    - Draw No Bet
    - Both Teams To Score
    - Exact Score
    - HT/FT
    - Double Chance
    - Win To Nil

    Anybody would be better off by trying to understand where both types of betting come from and use that to their advantage.
    danshan wrote: »
    and dont even get started on that Asian handicap stuff, I mean with that Asian handicap -.25 gives you half your money back if your team loses by 1 and all kinds of for us different stuff. here is a link to a table for Asian if you are so interested which I am not, LOL
    https://www.betshoot.com/asian-handicap-betting/

    Asian Handicap -0.25 means half the bet is on 'PK' and half the bet is on '-0.5'.
    You would lose half and push the other half when the game ends in a draw, not when it loses by 1. In that case AH -0.25 loses everything.
    (just to clarify)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I was not being specific, I was just saying how weird Asian can be to a typical US bettor but thanks for the clarity.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    vsin expert sucks , gill alexander ...this guy cant pick his nose, now today his sharp play was , and i dont understand if you were going to make a 3-way bet why say it like this.................the play , Iceland +160 to win in 3-way betting.....of course they lost -100 , nigeria won +190 and the draw lost -100, wouldn't say the bet more like iceland/nigeria 3 way bet ???
  • ct5320ct5320 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    vsin expert sucks , gill alexander ...this guy cant pick his nose, now today his sharp play was , and i dont understand if you were going to make a 3-way bet why say it like this.................the play , Iceland +160 to win in 3-way betting.....of course they lost -100 , nigeria won +190 and the draw lost -100, wouldn't say the bet more like iceland/nigeria 3 way bet ???

    His bet was Iceland +160, that's it. He didn't bet nigeria or the draw (those are the other 2 options on the 3 way line). So he lost 1 bet, Iceland +160. The best way to say it would be to say "we are taking iceland +160 on the 3-way line."

    - - - Updated - - -

    As opposed to saying "We are taking iceland -109 on the moneyline." The difference being, on the 3-way line you lose if it's a draw, and on the moneyline you push if it's a draw
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Mexico HT/Mexico FT (+180) 1 unit to win 1.8 units
    Mexico wins and South Korea no goals (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
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