Betting Talk

Poster Danshan

donny2donny2 Senior Member
edited August 2018 in Sports Betting
Not sure if its best to create a thread on this or not but not sure if i should post it in this thread but i have a few questions for you. Other posters could comment if they wish.



1. You seem to ask lot of questions on the forum. No issue with that since i did that and still do though on other forums and people have to ask questions to learn. However, you seem to ask questions about everything. Example like if a line is so and so you say how is it that line etc. Well first off, it is. And if it isn't shouldn't you be betting the value side? How long have you been betting sports for? Im curious because you seem to be a novice however... you seem to ask lot of questions about CLV and talk about making lines.


2. How exactly are you making lines? You seem to have lines for nba and mlb and say things like i make the line for these games to be so and so. The thing is i have a tough time thinking how could someone make their own lines... yet questions like CLV and seemingly basic questions... you don't know the answer to. Now i dont know a lot of answers to most questions like CLV and other things etc. But for someone to making their lines for nba sides and totals and mlb sides, how does one know that how to calculate CLV? Example how about you give an example of how you calculated a line for a specific nba or mlb game. Like how did you come up with i make this team -125.


3. I don't want to ask private questions here but im curious. What is your occupation? The reason why i ask this is because you mentioned how you bet nba and your average bet in the nba was like x amount of btc which is about 5000 usd. I believe you said you bet on average 3 nba games a day or so. I assume you got your money from other areas and not gambling right? I can't imagine your regular job allowed you to have this kind of bankroll to bet 5000 a game? I just have a tough time thinking of someone betting 5k on nba games yet ask certain questions where i can't imagine someone betting 5k a game does. So are you some rich whale? But based on the way you type, i don't imagine this.


4. You asked questions about betonline openers for nba. I believe someone mentioned their limits are 250 or so. Then you mentioned about do they limit you for openers etc. And you mention how you crush nba opening lines on betonline. What confuses me is if you are betting 5k a game on the nba, why are you so that concerned about nba opening lines with 250 limits? I believe there are no rebets allowed there right?


5. This to me is probably the most confusing thing of all. You asked questions about Drh and his service. His service cost 5k and its only half the season. For most ppl, they cant afford it because most people are not even betting that much to make the service worth it. Thus if you bet 1k a game, well you need to be up 5 units just to break even. Now that isn't that hard for someone like him since hes been up 35+ units on average. However, you mentioned 5k is way too rich for you. First off... if you are betting 5k a game on the nba on average, im not sure exactly how much you are betting on mlb games... im guessing you are betting at least 1/2 that right? Well how could 5k not be a drop in the bucket for someone like you? If you are betting 5k a game in the nba and have questions that you ask on the forum and probably bet at least 2500 a game on mlb at least... how is 5k too rich for you? That makes no sense. If my average bet was 2500 and drh service is 5k, i would buy it immediately. Now if someone bets say 100 or 200 or 500 a game or even less, even 2k for his service would be too much. Also he is a proven winner so the fact that you say his service is way too much for you makes zero sense. I mean if you average bet size is indeed 2500 or 5000, you make it back with 1 unit just to break even.
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Comments

  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    I just have a tough time thinking of someone betting 5k on nba games yet ask certain questions where i can't imagine someone betting 5k a game does. So are you some rich whale? .

    No one would ever, ever,ever lie about this on a sports betting forum.
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Guy is a troll, whether intentional or not is up for debate. Can't imagine why someone would care this much to ask so many questions of someone like that.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan is a young guy that got interested in betting but did not go through the regular process of learning about it. He did not start out clueless and learn as he went. He apparently got really interested and somehow found his way to BettingTalk and started asking a lot of questions that most people know the answer to so he came off as a moron. He has put together a model because he has some smarts but has no clue about market effiiency and such and is learning as he goes. As such, he asks novice questions despite a quite a bit of knowledge in other areas.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    As far as danshan's betting amounts, I believe he started out massively overbetting at Pinnacle and had a lucky run and ran up $40,000 in gains. He is now starting to realize he has no idea what he is doing.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    danshan is a young guy

    R40, he's no spring chicken. He learned his schtick by watching old "Columbo" re-runs. Dumb as a fox and likes to interact with unmovable preconceived notions.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    R40, he's no spring chicken. He learned his schtick by watching old "Columbo" re-runs. Dumb as a fox and likes to interact with unmovable preconceived notions.

    Probably in his 30s. He thought he had a little something going and was full of confidence but gradually learning he is not nearly as smart as he thought which is the usual learning process. It's hard not to have confidence when you are up 40K.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Probably in his 30s. He thought he had a little something going and was full of confidence but gradually learning he is not nearly as smart as he thought which is the usual learning process. It's hard not to have confidence when you are up 40K.

    R40--this is in no way meant to be snarky, nut how do you know he was up 40K. Certainly, not simply because he said so. I mean he hasn't been around this forum long enough to establish that type credibility/believability. And even if it is true, it would seem to be an attention grabbing, "hey look at me" type statement of braggadocio that would automatically raise my veracity radar. I mean the whole I bet $5K per game and am up $40K seems to be a ridiculously ostentatious statement early in one's tenure on a message board.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    . It's hard not to have confidence when you re up 40K.

    Maybe we're spoiled because we're on a forum that's mostly filled with competent, intelligent people, and where deliberate trolling is immediately shut down by Goats.
    For whatever reason, people post lies on messagboards all the time. There was a stripper that posted on Facebook last week that she was the founder of Cicada 3301, but that doesn't make it true.
    I still have threads like this bookmarked everytime I need a chuckle: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=566851&highlight=
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40--this is in no way meant to be snarky, nut how do you know he was up 40K. Certainly, not simply because he said so. I mean he hasn't been around this forum long enough to establish that type credibility/believability. And even if it is true, it would seem to be an attention grabbing, "hey look at me" type statement of braggadocio that would automatically raise my veracity radar. I mean the whole I bet $5K per game and am up $40K seems to be a ridiculously ostentatious statement early in one's tenure on a message board.

    Don't know it to be a fact. But it is not unreasonable to think he got up 40K over-betting with something he was having success with. It happens a lot to people with less to bet with.

    In any case, I am not concerned with any claims anyone makes regarding their own betting. I stick strictly to the subject at hand.

    danshan's claims of winning have been largely defensive because he felt people thought he was an idiot and his response was basically ...if I am an idiot why am I up 40K? ... which is generally a good indication that you are an idiot.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    Not sure if its best to create a thread on this or not but not sure if i should post it in this thread but i have a few questions for you. Other posters could comment if they wish.



    1. You seem to ask lot of questions on the forum. No issue with that since i did that and still do though on other forums and people have to ask questions to learn. However, you seem to ask questions about everything. Example like if a line is so and so you say how is it that line etc. Well first off, it is. And if it isn't shouldn't you be betting the value side? How long have you been betting sports for? Im curious because you seem to be a novice however... you seem to ask lot of questions about CLV and talk about making lines.

    I have been betting sports forever but not until I came here roughly a year ago have I been trying to be knowledgeable

    2. How exactly are you making lines? You seem to have lines for nba and mlb and say things like i make the line for these games to be so and so. The thing is i have a tough time thinking how could someone make their own lines... yet questions like CLV and seemingly basic questions... you don't know the answer to. Now i dont know a lot of answers to most questions like CLV and other things etc. But for someone to making their lines for nba sides and totals and mlb sides, how does one know that how to calculate CLV? Example how about you give an example of how you calculated a line for a specific nba or mlb game. Like how did you come up with i make this team -125.

    I created a model for the NBA, MLB and the NHL my goal is to estimate win probability of course I will not go into detail on my lines but they are about 1-2% off actual win% and 1% off pinnacles closing line on average. I do not have any real working knowledge about betting and all these terms and the process is all new to me.

    3. I don't want to ask private questions here but im curious. What is your occupation? The reason why i ask this is because you mentioned how you bet nba and your average bet in the nba was like x amount of btc which is about 5000 usd. I believe you said you bet on average 3 nba games a day or so. I assume you got your money from other areas and not gambling right? I can't imagine your regular job allowed you to have this kind of bankroll to bet 5000 a game? I just have a tough time thinking of someone betting 5k on nba games yet ask certain questions where i can't imagine someone betting 5k a game does. So are you some rich whale? But based on the way you type, i don't imagine this.

    I analyze market value of items for trials, lawyers, insurance and merger folks. I gamble all the BOL openers and I bet the 250 max as many times as I can before the line gets out of whack, last year I made about 33,000 on a stupid SDQL that i made I was betting exactly .8btc per game, there are links from nitrogen in my SDQL thread from last year which is proof if you think you need to see it. What do you mean by the way I type, you mean my grammar is bad or I am stupid or both?

    4. You asked questions about betonline openers for nba. I believe someone mentioned their limits are 250 or so. Then you mentioned about do they limit you for openers etc. And you mention how you crush nba opening lines on betonline. What confuses me is if you are betting 5k a game on the nba, why are you so that concerned about nba opening lines with 250 limits? I believe there are no rebets allowed there right?
    my betting method is I try and beat up openers for as much as I can at BOL and once pinny comes out if there is anything still good I bet at pinny too

    5. This to me is probably the most confusing thing of all. You asked questions about Drh and his service. His service cost 5k and its only half the season. For most ppl, they cant afford it because most people are not even betting that much to make the service worth it. Thus if you bet 1k a game, well you need to be up 5 units just to break even. Now that isn't that hard for someone like him since hes been up 35+ units on average. However, you mentioned 5k is way too rich for you. First off... if you are betting 5k a game on the nba on average, im not sure exactly how much you are betting on mlb games... im guessing you are betting at least 1/2 that right? Well how could 5k not be a drop in the bucket for someone like you? If you are betting 5k a game in the nba and have questions that you ask on the forum and probably bet at least 2500 a game on mlb at least... how is 5k too rich for you? That makes no sense. If my average bet was 2500 and drh service is 5k, i would buy it immediately. Now if someone bets say 100 or 200 or 500 a game or even less, even 2k for his service would be too much. Also he is a proven winner so the fact that you say his service is way too much for you makes zero sense. I mean if you average bet size is indeed 2500 or 5000, you make it back with 1 unit just to break even.

    I honestly was not interested in it mainly because of my plan to create my own lines. I have been following DRh's picks and he is a complete jerk like most people here but man is he talented at baseball picks. I am excited for his season and am in awe at his success, very talented. I would not have stuck to it to make it worth 5k TO ME, the service is worth way more in reality but NOT FOR ME! I also wonder maybe you or someone can answer since he does overnights is it possible to get his lines with a bet size of around 3-10k per game?

    just say outright you think my bet size is bullshit but I have nitrogen links on the site here that show my bet size on lots of bets if you feel the need to see them ( I do not bet on Nitrogen anymore once i learned the true cost of using nitrogen, i now use Rush or pinny for big bets). I made on basketball this season my aerage bet size was .5 btc and I made 2.673 btc on the season. baseball right now my average bet per game is about 500 on BOL average and about 2000 on Pinny and rush combined I use both and in baseball I am down $26,452.60 right now so far this season. I hope this answers your questions. My baseball Sdql last year made I think it was 3.8btc.
    anyway thanks for the questions and if you have anymore just ask, I love to chat sports betting anytime!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    No one would ever, ever,ever lie about this on a sports betting forum.

    the proof is in my sdql thread, real links from Nitrogen and they cant be altered of course, feel free to take a look
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40--this is in no way meant to be snarky, nut how do you know he was up 40K. Certainly, not simply because he said so. I mean he hasn't been around this forum long enough to establish that type credibility/believability. And even if it is true, it would seem to be an attention grabbing, "hey look at me" type statement of braggadocio that would automatically raise my veracity radar. I mean the whole I bet $5K per game and am up $40K seems to be a ridiculously ostentatious statement early in one's tenure on a message board.

    you can follow my nitrogen links to see my bet size and you can follow my thread to see I win, my plays are documented for that profit!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Don't know it to be a fact. But it is not unreasonable to think he got up 40K over-betting with something he was having success with. It happens a lot to people with less to bet with.

    In any case, I am not concerned with any claims anyone makes regarding their own betting. I stick strictly to the subject at hand.

    danshan's claims of winning have been largely defensive because he felt people thought he was an idiot and his response was basically ...if I am an idiot why am I up 40K? ... which is generally a good indication that you are an idiot.

    you think I am an idiot? I think that is a rude thing to say and you have no cause to say that, shame on you!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I honestly was not interested in it mainly because of my plan to create my own lines. I have been following DRh's picks and he is a complete jerk like most people here but man is he talented at baseball picks. I am excited for his season and am in awe at his success, very talented. I would not have stuck to it to make it worth 5k TO ME, the service is worth way more in reality but NOT FOR ME! I also wonder maybe you or someone can answer since he does overnights is it possible to get his lines with a bet size of around 3-10k per game?

    just say outright you think my bet size is bullshit but I have nitrogen links on the site here that show my bet size on lots of bets if you feel the need to see them ( I do not bet on Nitrogen anymore once i learned the true cost of using nitrogen, i now use Rush or pinny for big bets). I made on basketball this season my aerage bet size was .5 btc and I made 2.673 btc on the season. baseball right now my average bet per game is about 500 on BOL average and about 2000 on Pinny and rush combined I use both and in baseball I am down $26,452.60 right now so far this season. I hope this answers your questions. My baseball Sdql last year made I think it was 3.8btc.
    anyway thanks for the questions and if you have anymore just ask, I love to chat sports betting anytime!

    half my answers are below your questions the forum template mixed it all up for me
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    you think I am an idiot? I think that is a rude thing to say and you have no cause to say that, shame on you!

    I said you were a smart guy. But that kind of response does show you are a bit clueless and it was a small sample size. You gotta roll with the punches danshan. We have a long way to go.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I am beyond a bit clueless!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    I said you were a smart guy. But that kind of response does show you are a bit clueless and it was a small sample size. You gotta roll with the punches danshan. We have a long way to go.

    why do people think I am a troll? I ask legit questions and provide my thoughts, ideas and feedback. I am the first one to admit I am dumb about sports betting. I am so hated on here for I really dont even know why because I think and question responses and ask people to prove their answers. this is the internet you can take 99.9% of the answers you get on forums and throw them in the trash for various and most of the time obvious reasons.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    most people are FOS and say things like bet only underdogs when that is the dumbest thing you can say or they say use Kelly and they dont even know why. Stuff like that is the reason I say huh how prove it and more!
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I honestly was not interested in it mainly because of my plan to create my own lines. I have been following DRh's picks and he is a complete jerk like most people here but man is he talented at baseball picks. I am excited for his season and am in awe at his success, very talented. I would not have stuck to it to make it worth 5k TO ME, the service is worth way more in reality but NOT FOR ME! I also wonder maybe you or someone can answer since he does overnights is it possible to get his lines with a bet size of around 3-10k per game?

    just say outright you think my bet size is bullshit but I have nitrogen links on the site here that show my bet size on lots of bets if you feel the need to see them ( I do not bet on Nitrogen anymore once i learned the true cost of using nitrogen, i now use Rush or pinny for big bets). I made on basketball this season my aerage bet size was .5 btc and I made 2.673 btc on the season. baseball right now my average bet per game is about 500 on BOL average and about 2000 on Pinny and rush combined I use both and in baseball I am down $26,452.60 right now so far this season. I hope this answers your questions. My baseball Sdql last year made I think it was 3.8btc.
    anyway thanks for the questions and if you have anymore just ask, I love to chat sports betting anytime!


    How does someone who doesn't know much about sportsbetting and call themselves clueless make their own lines. That is the issue here. Could you give an example of a game whether nba or mlb and then explain how you got a certain line? You say okay i make this team -125 etc. How did you arrive to that number?

    Don't you have access to pinnacle? If you do, couldn't you try it out? Based on what people mentioned you might/might not be able to bet those amounts at his lines. People said his lines move very quickly. Also if 5k is your average bet size, i dont know why testing out 5k for his service would be any harm. I mean with a 5k unit bet size, bankroll is around 200k minimum right? Example if someone bets 500 dollars a game and thats his average unit. If a very good tout charges 500... thats a damn bargain. Thats only 1 bet. I know 5000 is a lot different since the amount is much bigger. But if my average bet size was 5k, i wouldn't even second guess not paying 5k for drh service. Now if ppl say its impossible to get the line, well that would be a reason.

    I dont think your bet size is bs to be honest. But the fact that you thought 5k for his service is way too much... that doesn't even make sense if your average bet size is 5k. Also you know what makes me question you a lot? For someone that is very clueless about all this, how did you even get the money to be able to bet this type of money on sports? That is pretty much the big question here if you are indeed betting the sizes you claim you are which for some reason i don't doubt.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I wont tell you my line making procedure but I can glady BEFORE They come out tomorrow give you sundays lines for MLB. I think if you read my convos with Jets you will see my nba lines I posted them up daily BEFORE they come out.

    I am confused are you asking how I got my money and if so I work and invest just like everyone else.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I seen you post lines before. That is not the issue here.


    You say you won't tell your line making procedure. You know what's the issue here? You seem to be very clueless about the math and ask lot of questions about CLV and other math questions where other posters answer it pretty easily. So if thats the case, how can anyone here even comprehend you are making lines correctly and not just randomly plugging in numbers? Like you might say you make this team -125 against the other team. Now if its someone like drh who is a legit capper, he obviously won't mention how he arrived at the line. But people know he isn't putting air out there and just making a number.


    With you on the other hand, if you don't know sportsbetting math and CLV and ask questions where lot of posters seem to know the answer of, i have a very tough time you are even using correct math to make your own lines for games. Such as if you were to actually reveal how you come up with a line, and someone who knows what they are doing are looking at it, they might say are you just plugging random numbers out there. That is the main issue here. You keep saying you made this line so and so. Then ask question like does anyone know why the line is so and so and its so off from your line. Umm maybe because you just put a number up there and then just add some variables and say okay it should be about -125? Whats not to stop me from saying i made this line -122 and then dont say anything else.


    Well if you do work and invest, it certainly has nothing to do with gambling right and thus job and stocks?


    Also how would someone have the type of money to even bet 5k on a game then? Very few ppl have the money to do that. I mean you just have 200k out there saved up strictly to learn how to sportsbet?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    if you seen me post lines before and you seen how accurate they are, why would you still have these questions. My skills are in analyzing value that is what I do for a living creating comparable market analysis, sports is no different. I am very good at what I do and I believe most of my work skills translate over well to estimating value in sports games. I dont do things like most people do and I dont think like most people think and I believe that gives me an edge in sports betting and life! I have a significant savings and well over 200k in BTC alone
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I have been following DRh's picks and he is a complete jerk like most people here but man is he talented at baseball picks.

    Why are you dissing most of the rank and file here? Many tried to help to no avail. Do you expect David Copperfield to reveal his illusions sans court order?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I am dissing them because they are complete jerks, they know who they are. Whats the movie called Grumpy old men, LOL
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    setting accurate lines is very easy really when you look at from a comp angle. I bet the best cappers could be realtors or pawn shop people and they dont even know it.

    power rankings and only count the things that should count
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Why are you dissing most of the rank and file here? Many tried to help to no avail. Do you expect David Copperfield to reveal his illusions sans court order?

    you dont help anyone, you are a rude mean person for literally no reason and I have repeated 100s of times how skilled some of these people are and have shown praise and appreciation for the info I did get BUT I dont just believe everything because some Special guy said it, I need to read it, understand it and then maybe believe it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I think the real challenge to lines is the adjustments now that is magic and I think very few people have this skill and I am 1 of them that does NOT have it yet.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Why are you dissing most of the rank and file here? Many tried to help to no avail. Do you expect David Copperfield to reveal his illusions sans court order?

    you must be an attorney only people ive heard use that lingo
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    you dont help anyone, you are a rude mean person for literally no reason and I have repeated 100s of times how skilled some of these people are and have shown praise and appreciation for the info I did get BUT I dont just believe everything because some Special guy said it, I need to read it, understand it and then maybe believe it.

    I didn't hone my skills for decades to give it away, especially to an anonymous well-healed poster. You're prying for successful methods by stroking egos all for gratis? I earned my living through trial and error and never kissed ass like you're trying at times. Mean? I get that way when I see freeloaders. I adhere to an old Filipino saying......"Walang Libre" = NOTHING IS FREE
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    so why are you on the forum?
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