Betting Talk

2018 MLB

24

Comments

  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    -123 = .5516
    +114 = .4673

    ((.5516 * 100) - ((.5516 * 100) + (.4673 * 100) - 100) / 2) / 100 = .5421

    -122 = .5495

    .5421 - .5495 = -.0074
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yaeh I just use the -104 to -104 for sides and -105 -105 for totals

    so I would say 77
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Not entirely sure what you mean by that but it sounds like you're just removing a fixed margin from the closing line for calculating the no vig line. That's problematic because margins increase as odds increase. That's probably why you are off a little bit.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yeah I assume that the margin will be what is pretty standard for the market of -104 -104 across the board on sides can you please give me an example of where that margin is grossly off my every game -104 margin amount, please
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Show the math on how you reached your no vig numbers on that Mets game you asked for as an example. First you said one number that differed from mine, then a second number shortly after that still differed. Changing your number arbitrarily is always bad. Will try to see where you are errant.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    sure thanks for the help it really is appreciated

    bought at 54.95
    sold 55.16
    leaves .2
    margin at -104 -104 is .97
    .97 -.2 leaves .77
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I mean understand there is some small and slight variations from -104 but really enough to make you have to do for and against odds on every bet, I already do weighted CLV anyway!
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I'm sorry I'm not really following your thought process at first glance. I will expand on the math I shared in post #32 later for you to better understand how to properly calculate the no vig closing line.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I understand your math clearly on that one. What I am saying is you are calculating the CLV on every individual game by +- and I am just saying pinny charges a -104 margin which equates to .0097.
    so if it was -122 to -122 the net CLV for me would be -.97%
    and if it was -122 to -123 the net clv for me would be -.77%
    instead of taking every single game and adding the plus and minus and getting the actual margin for each game. I think there is a slight difference as the numbers move but in reality I think .97% is pretty darn close overall, dont you agree to that?
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/8
    SF/PHI Over 7.5 -125
    CLE/MIL Under 8 -105
    KC +132
    SEA -121
    HOU -125
    LAA +123
    NYY -195
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    35-34 (50.7%) -2.68u +2.18% CLV

    5/9
    DET +113
    KC +114
    CLE -147
    LAA +133
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    40-36 (52.6%) +0.26u +2.13% CLV

    5/9
    MIA/CHC Under 11.5 -105
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    csh wrote: »
    35-34 (50.7%) -2.68u +2.18% CLV

    5/9
    DET +113
    KC +114
    CLE -147
    LAA +133

    huh??? Angels?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    huh??? Angels?

    It was +133 for another 4 hours after he posted looks legit and very nice.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yeah that is what is said Old timer, like huh wow amazing, good job trying to catch me slipping but I was basically saying wonder why not that his line is bad
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Line is now +119. I'm not going to tell you what I made it but I obviously had my line lower than +133.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I had them at +130 so I thought it was a bad buy at 133 when i seen it but you were right it moved your way, good pick!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    honestly you have made some really good picks, I have looked at them as you post them and some are nice!
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Thank you
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    42-39 (51.9%) -0.55u +1.99% CLV

    5/10
    SF/PHI Over 9 -111
    ATL/MIA Under 8 -114
    MIL +142
    BOS +133
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/10
    STL -133
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    csh wrote: »
    Thank you

    Csh, did you always wear a beard:confused:
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/11
    MIN/LAA Under 8.5 -110
    WSH -190
    BOS -175
    LAA -170
    CHC -221
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/11
    MIL +141
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    45-40 (52.9%) +1.31u +2.04% CLV

    5/12
    MIL/COL Over 11 -107
    TEX/HOU Under 8.5 -103
    NYM -154
    OAK +168
    MIN +131
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/12
    WSH -180
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    48-43 (52.8%) -0.24u +2.06% CLV

    5/12
    TB G1 -137
    BOS -128
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/13
    WSH/ARI Over 8 -108
    TB/BAL Under 9 -117
    KC/CLE Under 8 -102
    NYM +110
    KC +254
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    53-49 (52.0%) -0.70u +2.13% CLV
    Sides 38-32 (54.3%) +3.23u +1.59% CLV
    Totals 15-17 (46.9%) -3.93u +3.23% CLV

    Running well below expectation, especially on totals. Gets frustrating at times.

    5/14
    CHC -149
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    53-50 (51.5%) -2.19u +2.12% CLV

    5/15
    HOU/LAA Over 7.5 -117
    TOR/NYM Under 7.5 -119
    DET +121
    NYY -116
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