Betting Talk

Punchline MLB Picks 18 BM openers, PS closers

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited July 2018 in Sports Betting
I will only use BM for my bets and will use Pinnacle for closing lines to calculate, I will post gross margin and will not deduct for margin

Record 0-0
CLV

4/6
Cubs -135
because I like the WIND LOL and the pitcher throws good on fridays with some clouds, oh yeah and I like the line I got it at -155 to 60ish
Braves +136
I got them at +110ish probably cause of the dodger pressure on this line
«13456720

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    oh shoot sorry just started
    Cubs 1.35 to win 1u
    Braves .73 to win 1u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Results
    1-1 -.35U -.75% and actually I think that CLV is wrong because if I am betting less than 1 unit how can I count 1 unit of CLV, if someone could chime in that would be awesome
    Picks
    Tigers (Fulmer) +105 .95for1
    Dodgers (Hill) -125 1.25for1
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I would just base your CLV on each bet with the amount bet being irrelevant. You want to measure how much your line has moved on your average bet. That's going to give you an estimation of the value of your bets. You cannot assign a value to a bet at this point if we assume you are a coinflipper. The only judgment otherwise will be if you have CLV ignoring how good you think each bet is or the size of it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    its not about assigning value its about this to me
    I bet 1000 at -1.22% CLV and I bet 100 at +1.22CLV
    average that you get 0%CLV
    but in reality you are 1% negative
    is that right or wrong?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    It does not matter what you bet. It only matters how much the line moved.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    yeah for a per bet average line movement but for ROI and season CLV wouldnt it be per dollar?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I am thinking the only way to beat the line for me is going to be overnights like once pinny comes out I think is fair because I use pinny lines to bet now because same day bets are brutally hard to beat holy smoke!!! I will keep trying but might switch to overnights AKA when pinny comes out!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    It depends on what you want to measure I suppose. The idea here is to get the value of your average bet by measuring it against the line. ROI and per dollar value are not meaningful. If you hit 60% and have negative CLV, you will be a projected loser.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    my clv not only needs to be positive it needs to be above a margin!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I am thinking the only way to beat the line for me is going to be overnights like once pinny comes out I think is fair because I use pinny lines to bet now because same day bets are brutally hard to beat holy smoke!!! I will keep trying but might switch to overnights AKA when pinny comes out!

    That's fine. But it will not win you any respect around here. If you have a professional level model, which is the standard here, you have to beat the line the way the pros do.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    my clv not only needs to be positive it needs to be above a margin!

    Correct. That's why it is tough to impress.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    DRH does overnights, is his model not a pro model?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    DRH does overnights, is his model not a pro model?

    Yes. But he earned his chops posting here.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    yeah but come on he is about 1% over margin assuming pinny doing overnights!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yeah but come on he is about 1% over margin assuming pinny doing overnights!

    What do you want to prove? If you want to show you are a winner, post against overnights. If you want to test your model, post against widely available lines. That is the standard.

    Your model might be good enough to win against openers and overnights. If you post those picks, you will be a very popular poster here. But you will not be considered a professional level gambler. It just depends on what you are shooting for.

    If you just want to show you have an effective model then fire away.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Yes. But he earned his chops posting here.

    I am gonna keep going here this way and I am doing my thing off line and right now I am .01% above my margin overnights using pinny so far this year, but I will keep going this way!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    What do you want to prove? If you want to show you are a winner, post against overnights. If you want to test your model, post against widely available lines. That is the standard.

    Your model might be good enough to win against openers and overnights. If you post those picks, you will be a very popular poster here. But you will not be considered a professional level gambler. It just depends on what you are shooting for.

    If you just want to show, you have an effective model then fire away.

    no I am up to the challenge and will try my best with same day for some time and see how it goes. remember my model is a newborn so it is growing daily as well and IMO will get sharper!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    no I am up to the challenge and will try my best with same day for some time and see how it goes. remember my model is a newborn so it is growing daily as well and IMO will get sharper!

    OK then. That is the idea. Learn as you go. You post here and learn a few things. Improve the model and become more effective.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    ADD ON 4-7
    LAA Ramirez +104 .96for1
  • CirclejerkCirclejerk Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I am thinking the only way to beat the line for me is going to be overnights like once pinny comes out I think is fair because I use pinny lines to bet now because same day bets are brutally hard to beat holy smoke!!! I will keep trying but might switch to overnights AKA when pinny comes out!

    Depends how much you wanna get down. Low overnight limits can be a challenge.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I ahve been going pretty heavy on BOL after BM comes out and of course real heavy on PInny once they come out
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record
    2-3, -1.56U, .79%CLV

    Picks
    Twins -115 1.15for1
    Reds +131 .76for1
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Record
    2-3, -1.56U, .79%CLV

    Picks
    Twins -115 1.15for1
    Reds +131 .76for1

    looks like Twins is cancelled I will replace with
    Rockies -139 1.39for1
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    looks like Twins is cancelled I will replace with
    Rockies -139 1.39for1

    So you weren't going to play/post Colorado until the Twins cancellation?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    it was 3rd on my gap list so when Twins cancelled I did not just want to have 1 game so I added it. I am brain dead on the Royals game though, Why is it -220, I got the Royals game way way lower??????
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Goats wrote: »
    So you weren't going to play/post Colorado until the Twins cancellation?

    Why do you ask, am I violating the rules somehow by adding this pick?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Why do you ask, am I violating the rules somehow by adding this pick?

    Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    goats am glad you asked that, i was writing this whole thing like i do many times on here and then said fuck it and deleted it...and minutes later you post the same exact thing i was wondering about
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Goats wrote: »
    Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.

    I usually have like 3 or 4 games and I use how far off from the current line and I post the top 2 usually unless I have like 3 or 4 close or something. I am right now sitting about a 25 off the line average so if my guess is more than a 25 off I call it a maybe play and then I usually just play the top 2 or 3 of those!, I hope that clarifies but there is no way I think I am going to get better than margin against the "same day lines" it is going to be a tough road I am sure of that but everyday my model gets smarter so hopefully the model can learn faster than my CLV sinks doing same day!

    My Overnights are doing a very good I am a few cents better than margin on overnights and way better on BOL openers! I have not had any limit issues with overnights using pinny and BOL and I am doing about 4-5 per game I like per day on the overnights!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    goats am glad you asked that, i was writing this whole thing like i do many times on here and then said fuck it and deleted it...and minutes later you post the same exact thing i was wondering about

    Please Jets any time you got anything to say about my stuff dont hesitate good nice mean whatever! Please Comment
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