Punchline MLB Picks 18 BM openers, PS closers
danshan
Senior Member
I will only use BM for my bets and will use Pinnacle for closing lines to calculate, I will post gross margin and will not deduct for margin
Record 0-0
CLV
4/6
Cubs -135
because I like the WIND LOL and the pitcher throws good on fridays with some clouds, oh yeah and I like the line I got it at -155 to 60ish
Braves +136
I got them at +110ish probably cause of the dodger pressure on this line
Record 0-0
CLV
4/6
Cubs -135
because I like the WIND LOL and the pitcher throws good on fridays with some clouds, oh yeah and I like the line I got it at -155 to 60ish
Braves +136
I got them at +110ish probably cause of the dodger pressure on this line
Comments
Cubs 1.35 to win 1u
Braves .73 to win 1u
1-1 -.35U -.75% and actually I think that CLV is wrong because if I am betting less than 1 unit how can I count 1 unit of CLV, if someone could chime in that would be awesome
Picks
Tigers (Fulmer) +105 .95for1
Dodgers (Hill) -125 1.25for1
I bet 1000 at -1.22% CLV and I bet 100 at +1.22CLV
average that you get 0%CLV
but in reality you are 1% negative
is that right or wrong?
That's fine. But it will not win you any respect around here. If you have a professional level model, which is the standard here, you have to beat the line the way the pros do.
Correct. That's why it is tough to impress.
Yes. But he earned his chops posting here.
What do you want to prove? If you want to show you are a winner, post against overnights. If you want to test your model, post against widely available lines. That is the standard.
Your model might be good enough to win against openers and overnights. If you post those picks, you will be a very popular poster here. But you will not be considered a professional level gambler. It just depends on what you are shooting for.
If you just want to show you have an effective model then fire away.
I am gonna keep going here this way and I am doing my thing off line and right now I am .01% above my margin overnights using pinny so far this year, but I will keep going this way!
no I am up to the challenge and will try my best with same day for some time and see how it goes. remember my model is a newborn so it is growing daily as well and IMO will get sharper!
OK then. That is the idea. Learn as you go. You post here and learn a few things. Improve the model and become more effective.
LAA Ramirez +104 .96for1
Depends how much you wanna get down. Low overnight limits can be a challenge.
2-3, -1.56U, .79%CLV
Picks
Twins -115 1.15for1
Reds +131 .76for1
looks like Twins is cancelled I will replace with
Rockies -139 1.39for1
So you weren't going to play/post Colorado until the Twins cancellation?
Why do you ask, am I violating the rules somehow by adding this pick?
Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.
I usually have like 3 or 4 games and I use how far off from the current line and I post the top 2 usually unless I have like 3 or 4 close or something. I am right now sitting about a 25 off the line average so if my guess is more than a 25 off I call it a maybe play and then I usually just play the top 2 or 3 of those!, I hope that clarifies but there is no way I think I am going to get better than margin against the "same day lines" it is going to be a tough road I am sure of that but everyday my model gets smarter so hopefully the model can learn faster than my CLV sinks doing same day!
My Overnights are doing a very good I am a few cents better than margin on overnights and way better on BOL openers! I have not had any limit issues with overnights using pinny and BOL and I am doing about 4-5 per game I like per day on the overnights!
Please Jets any time you got anything to say about my stuff dont hesitate good nice mean whatever! Please Comment