1. #421
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    Id work on the model and dont worry about the timing of the bet so much ,just my opinion .

  2. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    my whole setup is a train wreck as you can see LOL but I think I am on to something special with my MLB model, I am tightening the screws on when to bet and when not to. I expect good things LOL coming up
    So, with this newfound confidence in your model, does that mean you will no longer be betting 10 times as much on your SDQL plays?

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    by when I meant at what number to bet at, I am already seen a huge difference in line movement, I think tomorrow will be night and day different, but it could be night and day wrong too, LOL.

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    6-12 SDQL Play
    and the winner of the dumbest move of the day can he hit -20 units or not???
    Dodgers -173

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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckyBadger View Post
    So, with this newfound confidence in your model, does that mean you will no longer be betting 10 times as much on your SDQL plays?
    shoot I cant stop now with the SDQL's I mean anyone can see that 65% implied winners hitting at 50% is variance if it was not shoot I would be rich just go against it! I think the sdql is solid and I will keep going on it, obviously I think at this point it is probably too deep in a hole for recovery but I wont quit on it.
    My model difference is huge you can see it in the 12th picks and with the adjustments I should not have even taken the model play on Kennedy, I really do think I am on to something much better but we shall see how after first pitch if I got anything for tomorrow with a big card, I hope there are some plays for me with the adjustments. I feel good things coming on, I mean the model plays are a 4 or 5 game streak from being even!

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    6-13
    Model Play
    Tigers +155

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    so we were talking about the cubs game yesterday and timing of bets , if I were to dope out games early and found the cubbies a dog, like you did, and they stayed dogs up to i seen the lineups, i wouldve taken them ...so fast followed later in the day and i see the lineups come out and also see the money coming in on cubbies making milu around +103 , well things change then, and it would be a clear pass for me.
    So for me , it's better if i wait to lineups come out and now i have a clearer look at the game.

    keep plugging away

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    I had a bad day but with the changes, I was way better against the line and with my adjustments I would not have even bet the royals

    6/12 Nationals 131 156 0.64 L 4.23%
    6/12 Cubs -111 109 0.92 L 4.76%
    6/12 Royals -104 -105 1.05 L -0.24%
    6/12 Astros -148 -127 1.27 W 3.73%

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    dude I am on to something I just cannot find the answer just yet! I am so close to getting close to what I want, I just need to keep working on it!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    so we were talking about the cubs game yesterday and timing of bets , if I were to dope out games early and found the cubbies a dog, like you did, and they stayed dogs up to i seen the lineups, i wouldve taken them ...so fast followed later in the day and i see the lineups come out and also see the money coming in on cubbies making milu around +103 , well things change then, and it would be a clear pass for me.
    So for me , it's better if i wait to lineups come out and now i have a clearer look at the game.

    keep plugging away
    the issue for me is I dont have the skill set to even use lineups to do anything for me. I only know numbers so lineups do me no good. I am still very confused on all that and have not even reached that branch yet. I know people probably read me writing this and say what the hell, but I am just being honest!

  7. #427
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    i understand ill email you later with what i do with lineups for my model

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    sounds awesome!

  9. #429
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    what you have for the la/sea game ....looks too good

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    Mariners +100

  11. #431
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    interesting ...without seeing the lineups I REALLY like sea ....ill be gone going to the yankees/nats game will be seating a little behind first base ...ill hold a sign up that reads DANSHAN.....

  12. #432
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    that is awesome, Yanks live I have not been to NY in 15 years easy, have a blast!

  13. #433
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    6-13 SDQL Play
    Dodgers -168

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    Model Record 52-58 47.27%
    avg line 49.15%
    Units -6.71
    CLV .15%

    SDQL Record 17-16 51.51%
    avg line 64.7%
    Units -16.6
    CLV .17%

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    6-13 Model Play
    Dodgers -168

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    Model Record 54-58 48.21%
    avg line 49.22%
    Units -4.71
    CLV .20%

    SDQL Record 18-16 52.9%
    avg line 64.7%
    Units -15.6
    CLV .18%

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    6-14 SDQL Play
    Astros -190

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