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    Default Punchline MLB Picks 18 BM openers, PS closers

    I will only use BM for my bets and will use Pinnacle for closing lines to calculate, I will post gross margin and will not deduct for margin

    Record 0-0
    CLV

    4/6
    Cubs -135
    because I like the WIND LOL and the pitcher throws good on fridays with some clouds, oh yeah and I like the line I got it at -155 to 60ish
    Braves +136
    I got them at +110ish probably cause of the dodger pressure on this line

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    oh shoot sorry just started
    Cubs 1.35 to win 1u
    Braves .73 to win 1u

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    Results
    1-1 -.35U -.75% and actually I think that CLV is wrong because if I am betting less than 1 unit how can I count 1 unit of CLV, if someone could chime in that would be awesome
    Picks
    Tigers (Fulmer) +105 .95for1
    Dodgers (Hill) -125 1.25for1

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    I would just base your CLV on each bet with the amount bet being irrelevant. You want to measure how much your line has moved on your average bet. That's going to give you an estimation of the value of your bets. You cannot assign a value to a bet at this point if we assume you are a coinflipper. The only judgment otherwise will be if you have CLV ignoring how good you think each bet is or the size of it.

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    its not about assigning value its about this to me
    I bet 1000 at -1.22% CLV and I bet 100 at +1.22CLV
    average that you get 0%CLV
    but in reality you are 1% negative
    is that right or wrong?

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    It does not matter what you bet. It only matters how much the line moved.

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    yeah for a per bet average line movement but for ROI and season CLV wouldnt it be per dollar?

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    I am thinking the only way to beat the line for me is going to be overnights like once pinny comes out I think is fair because I use pinny lines to bet now because same day bets are brutally hard to beat holy smoke!!! I will keep trying but might switch to overnights AKA when pinny comes out!

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    It depends on what you want to measure I suppose. The idea here is to get the value of your average bet by measuring it against the line. ROI and per dollar value are not meaningful. If you hit 60% and have negative CLV, you will be a projected loser.

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    my clv not only needs to be positive it needs to be above a margin!

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I am thinking the only way to beat the line for me is going to be overnights like once pinny comes out I think is fair because I use pinny lines to bet now because same day bets are brutally hard to beat holy smoke!!! I will keep trying but might switch to overnights AKA when pinny comes out!
    That's fine. But it will not win you any respect around here. If you have a professional level model, which is the standard here, you have to beat the line the way the pros do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    my clv not only needs to be positive it needs to be above a margin!
    Correct. That's why it is tough to impress.

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    DRH does overnights, is his model not a pro model?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    DRH does overnights, is his model not a pro model?
    Yes. But he earned his chops posting here.

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    yeah but come on he is about 1% over margin assuming pinny doing overnights!

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