Betting Talk

Punchline MLB Picks 18 BM openers, PS closers

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Comments

  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Record
    W-L 8-9
    Units -.25
    CLV .01%
    If your record was 8-8 -.45 going into yesterday and yesterday's Bal play was a loss, shouldn't your record now be 8-9 -1.45?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    no i bet using fixed profit, so I lost .7 on a +143 dawg
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Record
    W-L 8-8
    Unit Count .45
    CLV .04%

    I lost .7 and I was .45 so that puts me at -.25 and 8-9
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    so if I had bet 1 unit flat betting I would be right now -1.61 Units but since i did the flat profit I am down only -.25 Units, interesting how fixed profit helped me significantly in this small sample size.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    no i bet using fixed profit, so I lost .7 on a +143 dawg

    Thanks for the explanation. I hope you understand how someone looking in at your baseball plays, and not checking your previous posts would be confused by this. They see your record as 8-8 +.45. They see you had one play (Bal +143) and the play lost, so, since it wasn't specifically stated on that play that you were risking .7 units, they would surmise that you lost 1 unit therefore making your record 8-9, -.55
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I see the clarity issue and appreciate you showing it to me but I have been consistent in the stake method since the beginning. I will surely clarify all my plays in the future its just kinda headache writing them out each time but I will in the future thanks for the heads up!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record
    W-L 8-11
    Units -1.72
    CLV .11%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Rangers +158 .63for1
    Athletics -140 1.4for1
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    dont you work dude , you retired or something, how old are you ...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I never stop working, I am 45!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    what you do??
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I am a market valuer of things that do not have established prior value, like project projected value or business start up value. I also do tons of fun stuff with cryptos!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I actually started doing it in the pawn business and it kinda grew from there
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    what do you do?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    good for you , my crazy 19 year old son bought into bitcoin, made a ton of money and then kept it there too long and lost money , am wondering i just had my accountant do his taxes and he owed 3 bucks to new york state ...nothing fed....am wondering ...how does someone claim losses on bitcoin or gains for that matter....no records of anything on that chain thing...its obvious i know nothing about it.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    i think the government is going to be a little pissed not getting their share of taxes on cap gains.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    each wallet has an identifier so you can use the blockchain to trace in and outs of every satoshi and I am sure you can use that to show profits or losses. https://www.cryptocompare.com/portfolio/ I personally just use this to track everything and literally printed this out for my CPA! I hope this can help you
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    am a retired cop ....but still work with my brother who owns a roofing company ,just to stay busy , am getting up there in age and dont think my body and keep doing that kind of work to much longer
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    i dont think for him it matters , the lost money would only help if he owed money am guessing, but ill bookmark that just in case , thanks
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    you dont make enough cash gambling?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Jets you seem very knowledgable about this stuff and it seems to me like you probably make good money doing it
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    had great years and had bad years , gambling is not a fixed income like my pension, I do well , always working on models to get them better and i know dick about math , takes a lot of money to live where i live , highest property taxes in county . Few other guys on here live pretty close to city like me.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    my line for tonights nba phila -11.80 gsw -10.09 ..no plays ...but in the early going any line off my line by 4 or more has been 4-0 . and in reg season it was 74-85 53%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    my line for tonights nba phila -11.80 gsw -10.09 ..no plays ...but in the early going any line off my line by 4 or more has been 4-0 . and in reg season it was 74-85 53%

    I stopped doing NBA when it got to garbage time. best of luck with it and thanks again for all the help, trust me Jets my MLB model is super super close and getting closer daily. by May I am in great shape I am sure of it!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I get a little confused though, all these guys write all this stuff like its windy and the starter has 1 strike for every 5 balls and blah blah blah and I don understand that, isnt 99.99% of all that stuff in the line.
    I mean if you say Kershaw has allowed 1 run in 65 innings and the team he is playing is 1 for 99 against him isnt all that technically in the line, isnt that why they are -300 and not +105. I mean I just dont understand the value in all those calculations. if i take a team that is +180 I am pretty damn sure their starter is going to be worse than opp and the teams hits runs for the season will probably be lower than opp. I mean that is why they are 180, right???

    I mean shoot anyone could tell you why the Dodgers with Kershaw starting is probably a winner. I dont want to know if they are a winner I want to know if the line has any value in it
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    ok first every single game in baseball has value ,every single one of them.....and nothing for nothing LISTEN TO EVERYONE ,FOLLOW KNOW ONE .
    Make your line , decide how many cents off that line it takes before you bet on it....stay away from large favorites and large dogs , work in the middle , you know how many baseball game there are ? right, you have guys here with winnings records but are losing money ...i stopped looking at their thread , only because they are taking games -300 , -250 , minus ,minus .minus....go back and look at the great OZ past baseball picks, you see any large favorites or dogs, follow the leader dude, my model is better for him because i capped the capper ,
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    see this where you are losing out, its playoff time, if you have any trust in your model and i do in mine , then this is the time to shoot
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    see this where you are losing out, its playoff time, if you have any trust in your model and i do in mine , then this is the time to shoot

    in my nba model it was late fourth quarter and I stayed in the parking lot, got scared in garbage time, I bet I could tear it up, maybe I should crank up the furnace LOL
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    ok first every single game in baseball has value ,every single one of them.....and nothing for nothing LISTEN TO EVERYONE ,FOLLOW KNOW ONE .
    Make your line , decide how many cents off that line it takes before you bet on it....stay away from large favorites and large dogs , work in the middle , you know how many baseball game there are ? right, you have guys here with winnings records but are losing money ...i stopped looking at their thread , only because they are taking games -300 , -250 , minus ,minus .minus....go back and look at the great OZ past baseball picks, you see any large favorites or dogs, follow the leader dude, my model is better for him because i capped the capper ,

    excellent post, thanks much I try. I know people dont think I listen but if you remember when i came here to now, I dont think you can say anyone bought in more than i did. I will look back at those posts and will also keep grinding, this thread is for same day picks as discussed with r40 but my overnight clv is looking real good and my lines in MLB are close. the picks here are just the same dayers, my overnights have done much better value wise!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    id look at it for future ref....for the most part, your getting 100 percent every game ,
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