1. #16
    Senior Member R40's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    yeah but come on he is about 1% over margin assuming pinny doing overnights!
    What do you want to prove? If you want to show you are a winner, post against overnights. If you want to test your model, post against widely available lines. That is the standard.

    Your model might be good enough to win against openers and overnights. If you post those picks, you will be a very popular poster here. But you will not be considered a professional level gambler. It just depends on what you are shooting for.

    If you just want to show you have an effective model then fire away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    Yes. But he earned his chops posting here.
    I am gonna keep going here this way and I am doing my thing off line and right now I am .01% above my margin overnights using pinny so far this year, but I will keep going this way!

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    What do you want to prove? If you want to show you are a winner, post against overnights. If you want to test your model, post against widely available lines. That is the standard.

    Your model might be good enough to win against openers and overnights. If you post those picks, you will be a very popular poster here. But you will not be considered a professional level gambler. It just depends on what you are shooting for.

    If you just want to show, you have an effective model then fire away.
    no I am up to the challenge and will try my best with same day for some time and see how it goes. remember my model is a newborn so it is growing daily as well and IMO will get sharper!

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    Senior Member R40's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    no I am up to the challenge and will try my best with same day for some time and see how it goes. remember my model is a newborn so it is growing daily as well and IMO will get sharper!
    OK then. That is the idea. Learn as you go. You post here and learn a few things. Improve the model and become more effective.

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    ADD ON 4-7
    LAA Ramirez +104 .96for1

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I am thinking the only way to beat the line for me is going to be overnights like once pinny comes out I think is fair because I use pinny lines to bet now because same day bets are brutally hard to beat holy smoke!!! I will keep trying but might switch to overnights AKA when pinny comes out!
    Depends how much you wanna get down. Low overnight limits can be a challenge.

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    I ahve been going pretty heavy on BOL after BM comes out and of course real heavy on PInny once they come out

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    Record
    2-3, -1.56U, .79%CLV

    Picks
    Twins -115 1.15for1
    Reds +131 .76for1

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    Record
    2-3, -1.56U, .79%CLV

    Picks
    Twins -115 1.15for1
    Reds +131 .76for1
    looks like Twins is cancelled I will replace with
    Rockies -139 1.39for1

  10. #25
    Head Moderator Goats's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    looks like Twins is cancelled I will replace with
    Rockies -139 1.39for1
    So you weren't going to play/post Colorado until the Twins cancellation?

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    it was 3rd on my gap list so when Twins cancelled I did not just want to have 1 game so I added it. I am brain dead on the Royals game though, Why is it -220, I got the Royals game way way lower??????

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goats View Post
    So you weren't going to play/post Colorado until the Twins cancellation?
    Why do you ask, am I violating the rules somehow by adding this pick?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    Why do you ask, am I violating the rules somehow by adding this pick?
    Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.

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    goats am glad you asked that, i was writing this whole thing like i do many times on here and then said fuck it and deleted it...and minutes later you post the same exact thing i was wondering about

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goats View Post
    Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.
    I usually have like 3 or 4 games and I use how far off from the current line and I post the top 2 usually unless I have like 3 or 4 close or something. I am right now sitting about a 25 off the line average so if my guess is more than a 25 off I call it a maybe play and then I usually just play the top 2 or 3 of those!, I hope that clarifies but there is no way I think I am going to get better than margin against the "same day lines" it is going to be a tough road I am sure of that but everyday my model gets smarter so hopefully the model can learn faster than my CLV sinks doing same day!

    My Overnights are doing a very good I am a few cents better than margin on overnights and way better on BOL openers! I have not had any limit issues with overnights using pinny and BOL and I am doing about 4-5 per game I like per day on the overnights!

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