Because of all the switching (now back to the original matchup) I've lost about 20 cents combined of line value. Fantastic. Reinstating the original writeup I had for Hammel/Fulmer:
Both of these are pretty strong plays for me. My lines weren't even close. So the Tigers are starting to mash finally and they crushed Hammel already once this year. Hammel hasn't done that well against them in the past. Beyond Hammel the Royals have shown the worst bullpen in baseball this year. Detroit should score plenty of runs now that their offense is in good form. Them covering the total by themselves wouldn't surprise me. Then you have Fulmer for the Tigers who is actually a really good pitcher. He's coming off a bad start but is capable of throwing really good innings most of the time. I don't think the Royals will do anything too major against him but KC has finally started hitting a bit themselves and seem in good offensive form. Even if Fulmer only gives up 1 or 2 runs (I think he'll give up 2 or 3 over 6ish innings) you then have another terrible bullpen closing things out for Detroit. Detroit's pen is better this year but still nothing special and they've been crushed in back-to-back games so it seems they are reverting to their 2017 form. Even beyond all that, this is a good ballpark for hitters and the wind is blowing out to dead center at 8MPH for 2 teams that are hitting for power nicely. 8 runs as the total seems like a joke. I think Detroit has the better offense, the better starter, and the better bullpen (although that's not saying much). Tigers win 7-4.
Phillies -113
I had written up the over here but I'm going to end up passing. The Pirates are playing more underish lately as their offense hasn't hit righties much since Harrison went on the DL and their bullpen is finally putting it together. I rate these starting pitchers about even... neither is capable of dominating but both generally throw decent-enough innings. The Phillies have a small bullpen edge, their offense is much more dangerous, and they are at home. At -113 I'll play this one. Just seems like it should be in the -130 to -140 range.
Lean Twins, I had them at -105 but want to see how Lynn looks. I think the 11 days in between starts will probably be helpful for him as he signed kinda late in spring and could probably use the time to get right, but you never know how a pitcher will respond to having their start skipped. Archer is a mess right now. He usually dominates in spring and didn't this year, and then took a ball off his forearm on top of it. Twins probably win here but I don't want to force a bet with Lynn being somewhat of an unknown.
Lean Royals in G2 with Detroit likely to rest some guys and Junis having a massive pitching advantage over Norris. Ultimately Tigers have the better pen and the better offense, I had that game around -125 or -130 for the Royals so not a ton of value in taking them at -116. Just a lean.
Small lean on the Jays but weird game. I could see both pitchers doing really well but I could also see both pitchers getting hit hard. Seems like a good game to pass on.
Really wanted to take the Braves but they've already been bet down 25 cents. One of these days I'll have to buckle down and hit overnights like I should be doing. Still value in Atlanta at +126 as their offense is doing well and I think Newcomb will have a nice outing against a Mets team not hitting lefties. Neither bullpen can be trusted. Heavy lean for now.
Rangers -115
Kind of ashamed to admit it but I had the Rangers closer to -170 here. Seattle's offense has fallen off a cliff since Cruz came back and they haven't hit lefties all year (or last year either). The Mariners' offensive decline has come against some excellent pitchers so they aren't as bad as it would seem but Minor is a very capable pitcher and I like his form despite the Astros game last time out. Guy still pitched pretty darn well though, only putting 6 guys on base over 5 innings (5 of them scored). Felix isn't what he used to be and has struggled on the road this year. One negative is that Texas is swinging hard at everything and either striking out or hitting home runs... and the wind is blowing in pretty nicely in Texas today. That being said, Texas has a nice bullpen edge and the better starter. At home at only -115 is a steal.
Almost passed on this one but had to play it. Wacha has been a mess and Cincy just hit him but the Reds are struggling even worse with the bats lately. It's possible Wacha has a good outing but he generally gives up a few runs even when he's on. He doesn't seem on right now but the Reds aren't hitting so who knows. What sold me on this play is that Finnegan is not a good pitcher and the Cards hammered him a week ago. The Cardinals' offense is hitting pretty well and I just don't think Finnegan is capable of getting outs. Cincinnati's bullpen is not any good. Basically there were 2 scenarios that I think could happen here... the Cards kill Finnegan and Wacha does well... which means we get lesser relief pitchers if the game isn't tight... or the Reds hit Wacha and we get our over there. The odds of Finnegan pitching well are very low. At 8.5 I don't love it but it's worth a shot even in this under park. Finnegan just gets into trouble against patient teams and the Cards are drawing walks really well.
Red Sox/Athletics o9 +105 (2-unit play, counts as 1 for record keeping)
I had this one at a hilarious o10 -120. How in the world is this at 9? Graveman is pitching horribly after a horrible spring, he's giving up HRs left and right, the wind is blowing out in Oakland and Boston is crushing everyone they go up against. On top of that the Athletics have a poor bullpen. This stadium has played to the over well in recent years. Then you have the Oakland offense which is mashing as well and hitting for plenty of power. Pomeranz is a very good pitcher who I like and he's backed up by a very good bullpen but you also have to realize Pomeranz got almost nothing done in spring training due to injury. He recently pitched a AA and a AAA game and gave up runs in both of them. Basically it's tough for me to imagine he's anywhere close to being ready for the season, especially against a hot team. Oakland didn't hit lefties well last year but has done a better job this year. 9 seems far too low with 2 of the hottest offenses in baseball, 1 awful bullpen, and 2 starters that can't be trusted.... and you're giving me +105 on it? I'm in.
Lean Angels and lean over in that game as well but passing for now. No good way to tell what each starter is capable. Heaney had a good start in single A and then was a bit rocky in season debut against the Royals, Samardzija also missed most of the spring and has been hit hard in starts at AA and AAA. The Angels have stopped hitting, the Giants never really have done much hitting... Heaney seems like the better bet for consistent innings and the Angels have the pen advantage... but who really knows how this game goes down.
Lines just came up on this one. Honestly I kinda like the White Sox as massive home dogs but don't have the stones to try it. Verlander is pitching great and Chicago can't hit any halfway decent pitchers lately. Should have a strong game if not a complete game, but the Astros have an excellent pen if needed. Shields for the White Sox is nothing special but he's a vet that generally works through innings. I think he'll give up a few runs but probably not get rocked as the Astros still aren't hitting well enough to scare me. Maybe 3 or 4 runs given up over 5 or 6 innings. Shields is rarely sharp but rarely knocked out early either... he gets through his innings I guess. Houston's offense just faced 3 poor starting pitchers in a row and really didn't hit them that hard... Got 3 unearned runs last night, didn't touch Paxton or Miranda. Didn't touch Colon lately. They are starting to mash bullpens but Chicago has a solid pen that is better than what the Astros have faced lately. 8 just seems too high.
Stroman simply hasn't been himself. He wasn't able to pitch through most of spring with the shoulder injury and hasn't been effective since coming back. The Yankees have hit him well enough in the past even when he was healthy. Montgomery is the better pitcher here and he has the better bullpen behind him. The Jays getting Kendrys Morales back will help them against lefties but I still think the starting pitchers are far enough apart where there is value here. Both teams have good pens but the Yankees' is better. New York has scary potential against pitchers who aren't in form and you just can't trust Stroman until he proves he's back to normal.
Royals/Tigers is interesting. Slight lean to over. Both pitchers were awful in spring training and then went down with injuries. No clue where either guy is at right now but both bullpens are iffy at best. Neither offense is particularly scary though though so laid off.
Reds/Cards u8 -105
The Reds can't hit anyone lately and Carlos Martinez is a stud with a solid bullpen behind him. The Cardinals play in a pitcher's park and the wind is blowing in nicely. I'm not entirely sure I trust Homer Bailey just yet but he's looked pretty darn good. He's battled injuries the last few seasons so it's possible he's back to his 2014 form where he was an above average pitcher. Not sold on that just yet but Bailey has been nice. He's also capable of deliver 6 or 7 decent innings which helps the stinky Reds' bullpen. The Cardinals seem good enough offensively to score a couple runs off Bailey but they've had a heck of a time hitting for power at home and that's kept their offense in check. Somehow the Cards couldn't do a thing against this awful Reds bullpen last night despite knocking the starter out after 3 innings (still salty, had the over). Either way 8 seems high. Line probably goes to 7.5 by morning time.
Phillies -1.5 +130
Not a huge fan of taking the run line when the team is at home but I think this one gets us there. Nola is pitching extremely well and Pittsburgh's offense has been pathetic since Harrison went to the DL. Nola is going to throw a great game and go deep. Brault is a pretty average lefty at this stage and hasn't had much success in the Majors. I have no clue what Philadelphia's offense will do from game to game as they lack consistency but with Nola dealing it won't take many runs to get this bet in. On top of the starting pitcher matchup, the Phillies also have a nice bullpen edge. Was thinking I'd take the under here but line was set lower than I figured so it's a pass. 4-1 Phillies.
Jake, I believe your cheating yourself on your figure. I have U losing -1.40 units and U were -.01 going into yesterday, I have -1.41 going into today. Again Thank You for sharing with the board, the writeups are great especially the weather conditions, and love the 2 unit plays the way U point those out, I believe they are 2-1 on the early season.
Jake, I believe your cheating yourself on your figure. I have U losing -1.40 units and U were -.01 going into yesterday, I have -1.41 going into today. Again Thank You for sharing with the board, the writeups are great especially the weather conditions, and love the 2 unit plays the way U point those out, I believe they are 2-1 on the early season.
Thanks for the heads up. Updated it. Also up to 4-1 on the 2-unit stuff! Been a good year for those... not so much the rest of the plays but still plenty of time left.
Toronto is not starting their leadoff hitter, #3 (in lineup) hitter, #4 hitter, and starting 2B today. Will be interesting to see how that plays out as none of them are doing much hitting right now. Happy I took the Yankees but not entirely sure these guys all missing is a negative.
This is mostly a play on Snell being a better pitcher than Gibson. Snell is creeping up to #1/#2 starter status this year while Gibson hasn't been reliable the past few seasons. Minnesota has more pop in their lineup but they aren't hitting particularly well and it won't help them as much in this pitcher's park. Tampa Bay's offense has been consistent lately and they are capable of getting a few runs which is all it should take to give us a nice shot here with Snell pitching so well. Bullpens are about even. Oh and to top this play off the Twins don't have Buxton who has been a good hitter against lefties. This is one quite a bit lower than I had it capped at.
Lean White Sox +190 but quite frankly I'm tired of losing money fading the Astros. I had the White Sox closer to +165 but I'm just over fading the Astros. Giolito has the potential to put Chicago in a position to win IMO, but he's also having control issues lately. Not going to mess with it.
Braves +143
Some weird line movement in this one. The under was also a potential play but the line movement on the side and the total have both moved against me. Decided to limit this to 1 play in case I'm missing something. Seems a lot of big money thinks that Teheran reverts back to his garbage form from earlier in the year. He's put together back-to-back excellent outings and is facing a Mets squad that isn't doing much hitting. He has HR problems at times but the wind is blowing in at about 10 MPH which should help that. Teheran was very good against the Mets last season. deGrom is obviously very good but the Braves' offense is in a nice place right now and have done pretty well over their last 5 games while facing quality pitchers... they haven't been shut out by any starter over that span and have put up 3+ in 3 of 5. They just are seeing the ball well right now. Neither of these bullpens is worth trusting but I think both starters do well enough. The under is honestly a decent play here but the double line movement against me made me lessen my risk on this game. Home team at +143 in a game that is pretty close to a pick works for me.
Lean DBacks -1.5 +135 but the humidor is keeping games low-scoring and close in Arizona this year and I'm not thrilled with the recent form of the DBacks' offense. Pass for now. Everyone is on Arizona and the line has moved the other way so that's probably a good reason to lay off too.
Angels -1.5 -115
Giants/Angels u9 -110
If this game goes over I have to believe it's because the Angels are just beating the heck out of SF pitching. The Angels' offense has completely fallen off a cliff lately but they are facing some solid pitchers over that span. Holland is not a solid pitcher and he wouldn't be starting MLB games if the Giants' rotation didn't have all those injuries. Even these cold Angels should be able to get 3 or 4 runs off him over 4 or 5 innings. I don't think this is a situation where he gets knocked out after 1 inning as he's a vet and is smart enough to get outs here and there but the best case scenario for him is giving up a few runs while not going past 6 innings. After that the Giants' bullpen is hittable but the Angels couldn't do a thing against them last night so I'm not overly worried. Basically I think even cold hitting teams can put up runs on Holland. If I lose my under it's because the Angels are easily covered the run line. The Giants' offense has been a mess all year and I'm not seeing many encouraging signs regarding them. They've hit awful pitchers okay and have failed against anyone decent or better... Richards might be a top 5 pitcher in baseball. He's been hurt the last 2 years but has legit ace potential. Basically I just can't see the Giants doing much in the way of offense here. The Angels' bullpen has been a mess but they have the talent to be an above average unit and did great against the Giants last night. I think you're going to see improvement from the rotation in this series. Ultimately I'm not sure the Giants can score here and the Angels are hitting so poorly that I'd have to assume their production will be a bit capped, even against some poor pitchers. Let's say the Angels win 5-1 or so.
Athletics +148
Interesting matchup here. Both teams hitting really well. Sale's a stud and probably pitches a very nice game. He has a very strong bullpen behind him. All that being said, I'm a huge Manaea fan (side note, bought a ton of rare Manaea autographed rookie cards before the season started because I expected him to be an ace) and think he's capable of getting outs here. He pitched well at home against Boston last season and the Red Sox have only faced 2 lefties all year. They hit Skaggs a few games ago but he's nothing special and had been putting a ton of guys on base, then in the 2nd game of the season they couldn't touch a good lefty in Snell. Boston has been harassing right-handers all year but they haven't really been tested against lefties. This is where I think they will really miss Bogaerts and Pedroia as both of them hit left-handers really well. The Red Sox were probably below average vs. lefties last year if you toss those 2 out of the lineup. Oakland's bullpen is obviously having their issues but many of those issues stem from the fact that the starting pitching, minus Manaea, has been getting rocked regularly and leaving games early. With Manaea much more capable of going into the 7th (or at least lasting longer than 3 innings and stretching the relievers) that stinky bullpen will be negated quite a bit. This is closer to a tossup than people think. The wind is blowing out but neither pitcher has an edge as far as serving up the long ball.
Rangers definitely seem bettable but not sure I want to try Colon in his first start in Texas. He's a million years old but pitching well against a team that is having offensive issues. That being said he's HR-prone at times and Seattle has some sluggers. Ultimately I want to see how he handles pitching in a park geared more toward hitters to see if his improvement from last season is real.
Indians -1.5 -130
Originally was going to lay off here but had to play it. Line has already moved 20-25 cents and a lot of value was sucked out. Personally I only had Cleveland at -210 (line is -195) which doesn't leave a lot of room for value... but while I was writing up why I was passing I talked myself into a RL play. Clevinger is a good pitcher for Cleveland, Mancini is out for the Orioles and that hurts their offense a ton, Baltimore relies on the HR to score runs lately, Clevinger doesn't give up HRs, and Cleveland has a strong bullpen. Contrast that with Tillman getting crushed by everyone for the last few seasons, the Indians murdering him last year, and Baltimore's bullpen being a bit of a mess... I'm going a bit off script here by making a bet that my handicapped odds didn't suggest a ton of value in but I just can't see this game going any other way than Cleveland winning 7-2 or so.
Was worried this would be at 6.5 and I wouldn't be able to do anything with it. 7.5 at even money is kind of a joke line to me. Kluber is a stud and Baltimore isn't hitting anything. Even worse they are unlikely to have Mancini who is one of their best hitters. Kluber might throw a complete game like Clevinger did the game prior. Cleveland has a nice bullpen and for me it's hit or miss whether or not the Orioles can get past 1 run at most. Cleveland has been feasting on garbage pitchers but having issues with the better guys they've faced. Cashner is pitching well right now. Cleveland did hit Cashner last year when Cashner was throwing well but it was a strange game as Cleveland only got 8 guys on base over 5 innings and 5 of them scored. I don't think the Indians are capable of causing major damage against a halfway decent pitcher right now. Cleveland's strikeouts are high and their walks are low. When they can't get hits they just don't score that much and Cashner's current form is nice enough to keep them at bay. Baltimore's bullpen is an issue but not enough to scare me off a game that Cleveland should win 4-1 or so.
More to come. Posting that one early as I think it could move.
Tigers -1.5 +130 (2-unit play, counts as 1-unit for record keeping)
Royals/Tigers o8.5 -125 (2-unit play, counts as 1-unit for record keeping)
Skoglund fade continues! In a weird twist of fate, Skoglund's only career good start came against the Tigers last year even though Detroit was one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties. I do not expect a repeat. I've faded Skoglund all year. He's not good. He's not an MLB-caliber pitcher. Detroit has only faced 2 lefties all year but they've hit both of them hard. Duffy last game was a way better lefty and Detroit hit him really well. Skoglund just isn't good enough to last more past the 4th inning here IMO. On top of that the Royals bullpen isn't good. KC is hitting better than they were earlier in the year when Liriano pitched great against them and I'm not entirely sure I trust Liriano to maintain his control for much longer. That being said, Detroit is at home with the far superior starter, the better bullpen, and are much stronger at hitting lefties. Tigers win 8-4.
That's the full card. Only got 5 games capped. Need to go to bed, waking up at 4AM to fly to Mexico tomorrow for vacation. Status for MLB stuff from me over the next 4 days: questionable.
Made it halfway through the card and didn't like anything. Only decent lean was Rangers as a home dog, mostly because I'm not yet ready to trust Cahill. Will finish the card in the morning. Good luck to all.
Cole is pitching out of his mind and is a legit ace. Facing an Angels offense that has forgotten how to hit all of a sudden. Their offense has looked way off after that hot stretch. Astros have a nice bullpen behind Cole. Houston is finally starting to hit and their form has been much better lately. Skaggs is a sturdy pitcher but he's nothing special and gives up runs most starts. Behind him is a shaky Angels bullpen that is showing improvement but still isn't worth trusting at this point. Everything favors the Astros and the line just feels short. Houston wins 5-2. Nearly took u8.5 but laid off as I could see Los Angeles' bullpen ruining it late and I'm already fed up with bullpens right now.
Was hoping the Padres would be close to 2/1 dogs so I could take a shot on stinky Bryan Mitchell. Rockies weren't as favored as I figured so it's a definite pass. Only real reason I wanted to bet on a stinky pitcher is that Bettis is pitching way above his talent level and due for a bad one. Figured the books would make the Rockies bigger favs based on his recent form but it wasn't meant to be.
Marlins +225
Buehler is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball but I also think he's still really inexperienced and wasn't that impressive in AAA last year. Basically it's probably too soon to expect results at the top level. I'm sure he'll do well enough against this light hitting Marlins team but he could use another year in the Minors still. Then you have Garcia for the Marlins who is very much an unknown but he's been dominating in his 2 starts this year. Garcia is another guy that could probably use some time in the Minors honestly. The Dodgers' offense is no longer slumping but they also rely on their big power a bunch and a ground ball guy like Garcia should be able to take advantage of that. Basically the starting pitching matchup is close enough to even and the Dodgers' home field and bullpen advantages aren't worth this huge line. Eh it's a big dog with a chance, that's all I ask. I only had LAD around -170.
Cole is pitching out of his mind and is a legit ace. Facing an Angels offense that has forgotten how to hit all of a sudden. Their offense has looked way off after that hot stretch. Astros have a nice bullpen behind Cole. Houston is finally starting to hit and their form has been much better lately. Skaggs is a sturdy pitcher but he's nothing special and gives up runs most starts. Behind him is a shaky Angels bullpen that is showing improvement but still isn't worth trusting at this point. Everything favors the Astros and the line just feels short. Houston wins 5-2. Nearly took u8.5 but laid off as I could see Los Angeles' bullpen ruining it late and I'm already fed up with bullpens right now.
Was hoping the Padres would be close to 2/1 dogs so I could take a shot on stinky Bryan Mitchell. Rockies weren't as favored as I figured so it's a definite pass. Only real reason I wanted to bet on a stinky pitcher is that Bettis is pitching way above his talent level and due for a bad one. Figured the books would make the Rockies bigger favs based on his recent form but it wasn't meant to be.
Marlins +225
Buehler is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball but I also think he's still really inexperienced and wasn't that impressive in AAA last year. Basically it's probably too soon to expect results at the top level. I'm sure he'll do well enough against this light hitting Marlins team but he could use another year in the Minors still. Then you have Garcia for the Marlins who is very much an unknown but he's been dominating in his 2 starts this year. Garcia is another guy that could probably use some time in the Minors honestly. The Dodgers' offense is no longer slumping but they also rely on their big power a bunch and a ground ball guy like Garcia should be able to take advantage of that. Basically the starting pitching matchup is close enough to even and the Dodgers' home field and bullpen advantages aren't worth this huge line. Eh it's a big dog with a chance, that's all I ask. I only had LAD around -170.
I actually thought Mia might be a better play @ +240 1st 5 innings, as If we were fortunate enough to get ahead early, against the inexperienced and sometimes wild Buehler, I would still worry about them giving it up late.
Astros -1.5 Skaggs is a sturdy pitcher but he's nothing special and gives up runs most starts. Behind him is a shaky Angels bullpen that is showing improvement but still isn't worth trusting at this point.
Scioscia might not use his best reliever Middleton tonight.
I actually thought Mia might be a better play @ +240 1st 5 innings, as If we were fortunate enough to get ahead early, against the inexperienced and sometimes wild Buehler, I would still worry about them giving it up late.
That's actually a darn good idea and I'm kinda mad I didn't think of it. Good stuff.
Got what I wanted out of the Marlins at 5/2 but they coughed up a late run to lose. Oh well. Starting Tuesday's card now. On a side note I never realized how rough it is to use a laptop to handicap when I'm used to having 3 screens at home. Not ideal.
Sounds like Mancini back for the Orioles which will be a nice boost for their offense. He pinch hit last night and was targeting today so I'll call him probable.
Avisail Garcia and Tim Anderson might not be the biggest names in baseball but they seem super important today. Both are iffy for the White Sox, both mash left-handed pitching and they are facing a lefty today.
Comments
Royals/Tigers o8 -120
Because of all the switching (now back to the original matchup) I've lost about 20 cents combined of line value. Fantastic. Reinstating the original writeup I had for Hammel/Fulmer:
Both of these are pretty strong plays for me. My lines weren't even close. So the Tigers are starting to mash finally and they crushed Hammel already once this year. Hammel hasn't done that well against them in the past. Beyond Hammel the Royals have shown the worst bullpen in baseball this year. Detroit should score plenty of runs now that their offense is in good form. Them covering the total by themselves wouldn't surprise me. Then you have Fulmer for the Tigers who is actually a really good pitcher. He's coming off a bad start but is capable of throwing really good innings most of the time. I don't think the Royals will do anything too major against him but KC has finally started hitting a bit themselves and seem in good offensive form. Even if Fulmer only gives up 1 or 2 runs (I think he'll give up 2 or 3 over 6ish innings) you then have another terrible bullpen closing things out for Detroit. Detroit's pen is better this year but still nothing special and they've been crushed in back-to-back games so it seems they are reverting to their 2017 form. Even beyond all that, this is a good ballpark for hitters and the wind is blowing out to dead center at 8MPH for 2 teams that are hitting for power nicely. 8 runs as the total seems like a joke. I think Detroit has the better offense, the better starter, and the better bullpen (although that's not saying much). Tigers win 7-4.
Phillies -113
I had written up the over here but I'm going to end up passing. The Pirates are playing more underish lately as their offense hasn't hit righties much since Harrison went on the DL and their bullpen is finally putting it together. I rate these starting pitchers about even... neither is capable of dominating but both generally throw decent-enough innings. The Phillies have a small bullpen edge, their offense is much more dangerous, and they are at home. At -113 I'll play this one. Just seems like it should be in the -130 to -140 range.
Lean Twins, I had them at -105 but want to see how Lynn looks. I think the 11 days in between starts will probably be helpful for him as he signed kinda late in spring and could probably use the time to get right, but you never know how a pitcher will respond to having their start skipped. Archer is a mess right now. He usually dominates in spring and didn't this year, and then took a ball off his forearm on top of it. Twins probably win here but I don't want to force a bet with Lynn being somewhat of an unknown.
Small lean on the Jays but weird game. I could see both pitchers doing really well but I could also see both pitchers getting hit hard. Seems like a good game to pass on.
Really wanted to take the Braves but they've already been bet down 25 cents. One of these days I'll have to buckle down and hit overnights like I should be doing. Still value in Atlanta at +126 as their offense is doing well and I think Newcomb will have a nice outing against a Mets team not hitting lefties. Neither bullpen can be trusted. Heavy lean for now.
Rangers -115
Kind of ashamed to admit it but I had the Rangers closer to -170 here. Seattle's offense has fallen off a cliff since Cruz came back and they haven't hit lefties all year (or last year either). The Mariners' offensive decline has come against some excellent pitchers so they aren't as bad as it would seem but Minor is a very capable pitcher and I like his form despite the Astros game last time out. Guy still pitched pretty darn well though, only putting 6 guys on base over 5 innings (5 of them scored). Felix isn't what he used to be and has struggled on the road this year. One negative is that Texas is swinging hard at everything and either striking out or hitting home runs... and the wind is blowing in pretty nicely in Texas today. That being said, Texas has a nice bullpen edge and the better starter. At home at only -115 is a steal.
More plays coming. 6 games left to cap.
Almost passed on this one but had to play it. Wacha has been a mess and Cincy just hit him but the Reds are struggling even worse with the bats lately. It's possible Wacha has a good outing but he generally gives up a few runs even when he's on. He doesn't seem on right now but the Reds aren't hitting so who knows. What sold me on this play is that Finnegan is not a good pitcher and the Cards hammered him a week ago. The Cardinals' offense is hitting pretty well and I just don't think Finnegan is capable of getting outs. Cincinnati's bullpen is not any good. Basically there were 2 scenarios that I think could happen here... the Cards kill Finnegan and Wacha does well... which means we get lesser relief pitchers if the game isn't tight... or the Reds hit Wacha and we get our over there. The odds of Finnegan pitching well are very low. At 8.5 I don't love it but it's worth a shot even in this under park. Finnegan just gets into trouble against patient teams and the Cards are drawing walks really well.
Red Sox/Athletics o9 +105 (2-unit play, counts as 1 for record keeping)
I had this one at a hilarious o10 -120. How in the world is this at 9? Graveman is pitching horribly after a horrible spring, he's giving up HRs left and right, the wind is blowing out in Oakland and Boston is crushing everyone they go up against. On top of that the Athletics have a poor bullpen. This stadium has played to the over well in recent years. Then you have the Oakland offense which is mashing as well and hitting for plenty of power. Pomeranz is a very good pitcher who I like and he's backed up by a very good bullpen but you also have to realize Pomeranz got almost nothing done in spring training due to injury. He recently pitched a AA and a AAA game and gave up runs in both of them. Basically it's tough for me to imagine he's anywhere close to being ready for the season, especially against a hot team. Oakland didn't hit lefties well last year but has done a better job this year. 9 seems far too low with 2 of the hottest offenses in baseball, 1 awful bullpen, and 2 starters that can't be trusted.... and you're giving me +105 on it? I'm in.
Lean Angels and lean over in that game as well but passing for now. No good way to tell what each starter is capable. Heaney had a good start in single A and then was a bit rocky in season debut against the Royals, Samardzija also missed most of the spring and has been hit hard in starts at AA and AAA. The Angels have stopped hitting, the Giants never really have done much hitting... Heaney seems like the better bet for consistent innings and the Angels have the pen advantage... but who really knows how this game goes down.
Lines just came up on this one. Honestly I kinda like the White Sox as massive home dogs but don't have the stones to try it. Verlander is pitching great and Chicago can't hit any halfway decent pitchers lately. Should have a strong game if not a complete game, but the Astros have an excellent pen if needed. Shields for the White Sox is nothing special but he's a vet that generally works through innings. I think he'll give up a few runs but probably not get rocked as the Astros still aren't hitting well enough to scare me. Maybe 3 or 4 runs given up over 5 or 6 innings. Shields is rarely sharp but rarely knocked out early either... he gets through his innings I guess. Houston's offense just faced 3 poor starting pitchers in a row and really didn't hit them that hard... Got 3 unearned runs last night, didn't touch Paxton or Miranda. Didn't touch Colon lately. They are starting to mash bullpens but Chicago has a solid pen that is better than what the Astros have faced lately. 8 just seems too high.
Yankees -145
Stroman simply hasn't been himself. He wasn't able to pitch through most of spring with the shoulder injury and hasn't been effective since coming back. The Yankees have hit him well enough in the past even when he was healthy. Montgomery is the better pitcher here and he has the better bullpen behind him. The Jays getting Kendrys Morales back will help them against lefties but I still think the starting pitchers are far enough apart where there is value here. Both teams have good pens but the Yankees' is better. New York has scary potential against pitchers who aren't in form and you just can't trust Stroman until he proves he's back to normal.
Royals/Tigers is interesting. Slight lean to over. Both pitchers were awful in spring training and then went down with injuries. No clue where either guy is at right now but both bullpens are iffy at best. Neither offense is particularly scary though though so laid off.
Reds/Cards u8 -105
The Reds can't hit anyone lately and Carlos Martinez is a stud with a solid bullpen behind him. The Cardinals play in a pitcher's park and the wind is blowing in nicely. I'm not entirely sure I trust Homer Bailey just yet but he's looked pretty darn good. He's battled injuries the last few seasons so it's possible he's back to his 2014 form where he was an above average pitcher. Not sold on that just yet but Bailey has been nice. He's also capable of deliver 6 or 7 decent innings which helps the stinky Reds' bullpen. The Cardinals seem good enough offensively to score a couple runs off Bailey but they've had a heck of a time hitting for power at home and that's kept their offense in check. Somehow the Cards couldn't do a thing against this awful Reds bullpen last night despite knocking the starter out after 3 innings (still salty, had the over). Either way 8 seems high. Line probably goes to 7.5 by morning time.
Phillies -1.5 +130
Not a huge fan of taking the run line when the team is at home but I think this one gets us there. Nola is pitching extremely well and Pittsburgh's offense has been pathetic since Harrison went to the DL. Nola is going to throw a great game and go deep. Brault is a pretty average lefty at this stage and hasn't had much success in the Majors. I have no clue what Philadelphia's offense will do from game to game as they lack consistency but with Nola dealing it won't take many runs to get this bet in. On top of the starting pitcher matchup, the Phillies also have a nice bullpen edge. Was thinking I'd take the under here but line was set lower than I figured so it's a pass. 4-1 Phillies.
More to come in the AM.
Thanks for the heads up. Updated it. Also up to 4-1 on the 2-unit stuff! Been a good year for those... not so much the rest of the plays but still plenty of time left.
"2-Unit Plays"
4/2: Orioles/Astros u9.5 (WIN, 6-1 final)
4/9: Phillies -125 (WIN, 6-5 final)
4/13: Yankees/Tigers o9 (WIN, 8-6 final)
4/17: Astros/Mariners o8 (LOSS, 4-1 final)
4/20: Red Sox/Athletics o9 (WIN, 7-3 final)
This is mostly a play on Snell being a better pitcher than Gibson. Snell is creeping up to #1/#2 starter status this year while Gibson hasn't been reliable the past few seasons. Minnesota has more pop in their lineup but they aren't hitting particularly well and it won't help them as much in this pitcher's park. Tampa Bay's offense has been consistent lately and they are capable of getting a few runs which is all it should take to give us a nice shot here with Snell pitching so well. Bullpens are about even. Oh and to top this play off the Twins don't have Buxton who has been a good hitter against lefties. This is one quite a bit lower than I had it capped at.
Lean White Sox +190 but quite frankly I'm tired of losing money fading the Astros. I had the White Sox closer to +165 but I'm just over fading the Astros. Giolito has the potential to put Chicago in a position to win IMO, but he's also having control issues lately. Not going to mess with it.
Braves +143
Some weird line movement in this one. The under was also a potential play but the line movement on the side and the total have both moved against me. Decided to limit this to 1 play in case I'm missing something. Seems a lot of big money thinks that Teheran reverts back to his garbage form from earlier in the year. He's put together back-to-back excellent outings and is facing a Mets squad that isn't doing much hitting. He has HR problems at times but the wind is blowing in at about 10 MPH which should help that. Teheran was very good against the Mets last season. deGrom is obviously very good but the Braves' offense is in a nice place right now and have done pretty well over their last 5 games while facing quality pitchers... they haven't been shut out by any starter over that span and have put up 3+ in 3 of 5. They just are seeing the ball well right now. Neither of these bullpens is worth trusting but I think both starters do well enough. The under is honestly a decent play here but the double line movement against me made me lessen my risk on this game. Home team at +143 in a game that is pretty close to a pick works for me.
More to come.
Angels -1.5 -115
Giants/Angels u9 -110
If this game goes over I have to believe it's because the Angels are just beating the heck out of SF pitching. The Angels' offense has completely fallen off a cliff lately but they are facing some solid pitchers over that span. Holland is not a solid pitcher and he wouldn't be starting MLB games if the Giants' rotation didn't have all those injuries. Even these cold Angels should be able to get 3 or 4 runs off him over 4 or 5 innings. I don't think this is a situation where he gets knocked out after 1 inning as he's a vet and is smart enough to get outs here and there but the best case scenario for him is giving up a few runs while not going past 6 innings. After that the Giants' bullpen is hittable but the Angels couldn't do a thing against them last night so I'm not overly worried. Basically I think even cold hitting teams can put up runs on Holland. If I lose my under it's because the Angels are easily covered the run line. The Giants' offense has been a mess all year and I'm not seeing many encouraging signs regarding them. They've hit awful pitchers okay and have failed against anyone decent or better... Richards might be a top 5 pitcher in baseball. He's been hurt the last 2 years but has legit ace potential. Basically I just can't see the Giants doing much in the way of offense here. The Angels' bullpen has been a mess but they have the talent to be an above average unit and did great against the Giants last night. I think you're going to see improvement from the rotation in this series. Ultimately I'm not sure the Giants can score here and the Angels are hitting so poorly that I'd have to assume their production will be a bit capped, even against some poor pitchers. Let's say the Angels win 5-1 or so.
Athletics +148
Interesting matchup here. Both teams hitting really well. Sale's a stud and probably pitches a very nice game. He has a very strong bullpen behind him. All that being said, I'm a huge Manaea fan (side note, bought a ton of rare Manaea autographed rookie cards before the season started because I expected him to be an ace) and think he's capable of getting outs here. He pitched well at home against Boston last season and the Red Sox have only faced 2 lefties all year. They hit Skaggs a few games ago but he's nothing special and had been putting a ton of guys on base, then in the 2nd game of the season they couldn't touch a good lefty in Snell. Boston has been harassing right-handers all year but they haven't really been tested against lefties. This is where I think they will really miss Bogaerts and Pedroia as both of them hit left-handers really well. The Red Sox were probably below average vs. lefties last year if you toss those 2 out of the lineup. Oakland's bullpen is obviously having their issues but many of those issues stem from the fact that the starting pitching, minus Manaea, has been getting rocked regularly and leaving games early. With Manaea much more capable of going into the 7th (or at least lasting longer than 3 innings and stretching the relievers) that stinky bullpen will be negated quite a bit. This is closer to a tossup than people think. The wind is blowing out but neither pitcher has an edge as far as serving up the long ball.
Rangers definitely seem bettable but not sure I want to try Colon in his first start in Texas. He's a million years old but pitching well against a team that is having offensive issues. That being said he's HR-prone at times and Seattle has some sluggers. Ultimately I want to see how he handles pitching in a park geared more toward hitters to see if his improvement from last season is real.
Indians -1.5 -130
Originally was going to lay off here but had to play it. Line has already moved 20-25 cents and a lot of value was sucked out. Personally I only had Cleveland at -210 (line is -195) which doesn't leave a lot of room for value... but while I was writing up why I was passing I talked myself into a RL play. Clevinger is a good pitcher for Cleveland, Mancini is out for the Orioles and that hurts their offense a ton, Baltimore relies on the HR to score runs lately, Clevinger doesn't give up HRs, and Cleveland has a strong bullpen. Contrast that with Tillman getting crushed by everyone for the last few seasons, the Indians murdering him last year, and Baltimore's bullpen being a bit of a mess... I'm going a bit off script here by making a bet that my handicapped odds didn't suggest a ton of value in but I just can't see this game going any other way than Cleveland winning 7-2 or so.
Saturday was a pretty darn good night.
Indians/Orioles u7.5 +100
Was worried this would be at 6.5 and I wouldn't be able to do anything with it. 7.5 at even money is kind of a joke line to me. Kluber is a stud and Baltimore isn't hitting anything. Even worse they are unlikely to have Mancini who is one of their best hitters. Kluber might throw a complete game like Clevinger did the game prior. Cleveland has a nice bullpen and for me it's hit or miss whether or not the Orioles can get past 1 run at most. Cleveland has been feasting on garbage pitchers but having issues with the better guys they've faced. Cashner is pitching well right now. Cleveland did hit Cashner last year when Cashner was throwing well but it was a strange game as Cleveland only got 8 guys on base over 5 innings and 5 of them scored. I don't think the Indians are capable of causing major damage against a halfway decent pitcher right now. Cleveland's strikeouts are high and their walks are low. When they can't get hits they just don't score that much and Cashner's current form is nice enough to keep them at bay. Baltimore's bullpen is an issue but not enough to scare me off a game that Cleveland should win 4-1 or so.
More to come. Posting that one early as I think it could move.
Royals/Tigers o8.5 -125 (2-unit play, counts as 1-unit for record keeping)
Skoglund fade continues! In a weird twist of fate, Skoglund's only career good start came against the Tigers last year even though Detroit was one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties. I do not expect a repeat. I've faded Skoglund all year. He's not good. He's not an MLB-caliber pitcher. Detroit has only faced 2 lefties all year but they've hit both of them hard. Duffy last game was a way better lefty and Detroit hit him really well. Skoglund just isn't good enough to last more past the 4th inning here IMO. On top of that the Royals bullpen isn't good. KC is hitting better than they were earlier in the year when Liriano pitched great against them and I'm not entirely sure I trust Liriano to maintain his control for much longer. That being said, Detroit is at home with the far superior starter, the better bullpen, and are much stronger at hitting lefties. Tigers win 8-4.
That's the full card. Only got 5 games capped. Need to go to bed, waking up at 4AM to fly to Mexico tomorrow for vacation. Status for MLB stuff from me over the next 4 days: questionable.
Not much luck with my short card on Sunday. Bullpens wrecked havoc on my plays.
Record: 62-56 +5.65
Tomorrow's card coming up in an hour or so.
Cole is pitching out of his mind and is a legit ace. Facing an Angels offense that has forgotten how to hit all of a sudden. Their offense has looked way off after that hot stretch. Astros have a nice bullpen behind Cole. Houston is finally starting to hit and their form has been much better lately. Skaggs is a sturdy pitcher but he's nothing special and gives up runs most starts. Behind him is a shaky Angels bullpen that is showing improvement but still isn't worth trusting at this point. Everything favors the Astros and the line just feels short. Houston wins 5-2. Nearly took u8.5 but laid off as I could see Los Angeles' bullpen ruining it late and I'm already fed up with bullpens right now.
Was hoping the Padres would be close to 2/1 dogs so I could take a shot on stinky Bryan Mitchell. Rockies weren't as favored as I figured so it's a definite pass. Only real reason I wanted to bet on a stinky pitcher is that Bettis is pitching way above his talent level and due for a bad one. Figured the books would make the Rockies bigger favs based on his recent form but it wasn't meant to be.
Marlins +225
Buehler is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball but I also think he's still really inexperienced and wasn't that impressive in AAA last year. Basically it's probably too soon to expect results at the top level. I'm sure he'll do well enough against this light hitting Marlins team but he could use another year in the Minors still. Then you have Garcia for the Marlins who is very much an unknown but he's been dominating in his 2 starts this year. Garcia is another guy that could probably use some time in the Minors honestly. The Dodgers' offense is no longer slumping but they also rely on their big power a bunch and a ground ball guy like Garcia should be able to take advantage of that. Basically the starting pitching matchup is close enough to even and the Dodgers' home field and bullpen advantages aren't worth this huge line. Eh it's a big dog with a chance, that's all I ask. I only had LAD around -170.
I actually thought Mia might be a better play @ +240 1st 5 innings, as If we were fortunate enough to get ahead early, against the inexperienced and sometimes wild Buehler, I would still worry about them giving it up late.
Scioscia might not use his best reliever Middleton tonight.
That's actually a darn good idea and I'm kinda mad I didn't think of it. Good stuff.
Love to hear it! Fingers crossed.
Got what I wanted out of the Marlins at 5/2 but they coughed up a late run to lose. Oh well. Starting Tuesday's card now. On a side note I never realized how rough it is to use a laptop to handicap when I'm used to having 3 screens at home. Not ideal.
Sounds like Mancini back for the Orioles which will be a nice boost for their offense. He pinch hit last night and was targeting today so I'll call him probable.