1. #31
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    Hanley Ramirez back for Boston today.

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    Actual record was 38-36 +.96, counted a push as a loss. More plays coming after this, just sending as some lines just came on early games.

    Texas Rangers +1.5 -115
    Rangers/Astros u8 -115


    I've said it a few times and I'll say it again... until the Astros start hitting there is going to value on the underdog. That being said I'm getting really tired of losing 1-run games whenever I bet against them so will try the reverse run line today. I don't expect either team to do much offensively. I'm a big Charlie Morton fan and the Rangers' lineup is without 2 regulars. Weren't hitting much with Odor/Andrus in there but likely hit even less without them. I was hesitant on Minor after all those years off due to injury but the more I see him pitch the more I think he's back to being the top-end starter he was a few seasons back. Houston can't hit the last few lefties they've gone up against and Texas' bullpen seems improved. This has all the makings of a 3-2 final. It's debatable how much wind affects totals in Houston with their half-roof thing, but FWIW the roof is open and the wind is coming in at 18 MPH. Can't hurt.

    Lean Blue Jays +190 but can't pull the trigger. Doubt either team can do much scoring, wind is blasting in. Ultimately the Blue Jays are more reliant on the HR so with the wind it's tough to back this Toronto offense down 2 good players vs. Kluber. Figured I'd be on the under in that game too but line is set well. Garcia seems like he'll have a good game as well FWIW.

    Yankees/Tigers o8.5 -110

    Strange that this one got under as soon as it was released. The wind was supposed to be going out last night but is now blasting sideways but I still don't see how the under is the play here. I had it at 10.5 with the wind and I'm not too far off without it. The Yankees can really harm lefties with Stanton this year and Liriano shouldn't keep up his recent form in a tougher matchup. Cessa has been rocked in the Majors and hasn't done anything impressive in the Minors either. I see this game more as a 9.5 or 10 total.

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  4. #33
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    Nelson Cruz expected back for Seattle.

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    Yankees postponed so that one is scratched too.

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    Blackmon back for Rockies.

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    Lean Mets -115 but only because just about everything in the game looks pretty even and home field is worth more than 15 cents. Pass.

    Kansas City Royals +150 1st 5 innings

    I have no doubt the Kansas City bullpen will probably blow this one but at 5 innings I think we have a good chance. Junis is an excellent young pitcher who is pitching out of his mind lately. He's very tough to hit so even though the Angels are murdering the ball right now I think he can do well enough to keep us in this. LAA actually hasn't been overly impressive against starters in this series, scoring only 3 earned runs over 11 1/3 innings their last 2 games. They've been humiliating the KC bullpen but haven't been going nuts against the starters. Richards for the Angels is a very good pitcher and he's facing a KC offense that doesn't have any pop... but he also has been struggling badly with his command dating back to spring ball. Richards just doesn't have a good feel for the zone yet and that might be all it takes in a game where 1-run might get the job done for this bet.

    Athletics/Mariners o8.5 -110

    Graveman hasn't been at all sharp this year and Seattle has hit pretty well without Nelson Cruz. Cruz returns tonight and Graveman is HR-phone facing a team that has been going deep a lot without their premier long ball hitter. I actually like Gonzales for the Mariners but he's been a mess in the Majors for whatever reason. Guy has potential but at the end of the day he's serving up a ton of HRs and facing a team that, like the Mariners, is slugging the long ball really well. Neither of these bullpens are anything special either which makes me think the over is a good play. The bad part of this is that both starters are more capable than they have shown, but at the end of the day both are still very capable of giving up runs.

    Diamondbacks +155
    DBacks/Dodgers o7 -110


    I juggled with the idea of Arizona being favored on the road here so I'll definitely take them at this line. The Dodgers are starting to finally hit but Walker is a solid pitcher for Arizona. I don't expect anything special but think he can go 6 innings while giving up 3 or 4 runs. I've had a suspicion that Rich Hill is finally regressing this season and think Arizona can get to him pretty early. DBacks hit pretty well and Hill isn't capable of going many innings any more. The Giants, who can't hit lefties and were one of the worst hitting teams to start the year, got to Hill a bit last time out. This game should go over and the winner seems close to a coin flip.

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    Kemp out for Dodgers

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    Welp the Braves just blew an 8-run lead by leaving one of their worst bullpen guys out there for no apparent reason. Fun stuff. They had a bunch of better guys available and just let the same 2 relievers stay out there hitting people and showing no command.

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    Record: 42-40 +1.36

    Please correct me if my record is wrong again. I'm error-prone on that lately (probably because I add it up last thing before bed and my brain is foggy).

    Should have been a massive day yesterday but the Braves coughed up an 8-run lead late... made even more infuriating by the fact they didn't even put in their decent relievers and let 2 gas bags with no command face batter after batter. Makes no sense and I'm salty.

    Not playing anything in Mets/Brewers but just mentioning that Syndergaard had a blister issue last game. He said it was nothing to worry about but you never know. Ryan Braun might sit out too but he's been so useless that it might be a boost for Milwaukee's offense.

    These are only for the early games for tomorrow. I'm waiting until the AM to handicap Baltimore @ Boston (Hanley/Betts iffy) as well as the NYY/DET and COL/WAS games (can't figure out if big wind will be blowing in or side-to-side). Will cap the later stuff and those 3 early games tomorrow morning.


    Rays +130

    NOTE: One line service is showing Snell starts for Rays, another is showing Yarbrough. Seems like Yarbrough is more likely which would void the play (although I still might take a shot on the dog). We'll see what shakes out in the AM.

    I have the Rays as small favorites here as there isn't a whole lot to separate these teams (at least in this particular matchup). Lively and Snell are both sturdy but rarely dominant starters, both teams have average bullpens... Phillies have more power but in a pitcher's park like this that is negated quite a bit. Both teams about in the same recent form with the bats... I'll take the home team as a nice-sized dog as they try to avoid the sweep.

    Marlins +128

    This bet is similar to the Rays' bet reasoning really. I have Urena and Nova as about the same pitcher (capable of decent starters but will usually give up some runs) and neither bullpen is worth trusting. The Pirates seem to finally be cooling off offensively after that torrid start and they were definitely due for some regression. The Marlins are hitting well enough, nothing special but you don't need to be red hot to hit Nova. Seems pretty close to a tossup and I once again had this home team as a small favorite so might as well hit the underdog bet.

    Angels -1.5 -135
    Angels/Royals o7.5 -115


    Everyone in the world is going to be on the Angels which I'd normally try to avoid but I had to try the run line. I had this one close to Angels -300 so there is still value IMO. Ohtani is a stud and KC has no power hitters. They aren't hitting that well and Gordon is out. The Angels have a nice pen behind Ohtani. If KC gets more than 2 runs I'll be a bit shocked. The Royals, meanwhile, are starting Skoglund who is not good enough to pitch at this level and gets hit hard every time he takes the mound. The Angels' offense is mashing about everyone right now and the Royals' bullpen is not good. The only downside on the over is that Ohtani won't be hitting, but LAA is getting production from just about everyone. I honestly think there is a really good chance the Angels cover this total by themselves. Skoglund is just so bad and has no pen behind him. Ideally what will happen is that the Angels will be up 7-0 after 6 innings and both teams will use their lesser relievers to close out the blowout and ensure the over.

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  13. #40
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    jake--if the record was correct going into Sat, then the record you have now posted is correct

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  15. #41
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    Betts out for Red Sox, Hanley playing.

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    No other morning game bets on the 3 matchups I saved for this today. Capping the later stuff now,

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jake T. View Post
    No other morning game bets on the 3 matchups I saved for this today. Capping the later stuff now,
    is there a reason you cap games on the same day, instead of overnights?

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    Lean Orioles but passing.

    Diamondbacks +1.5 -115

    Thought long and hard about trying the 2/1 odds on the ML but feel more comfortable with the +1.5. I might end up kicking myself for that decision but we'll see. Godley was very good last year and has been unhittable so far this season. He's facing a Dodger lineup that is showing signs of starting to hit but IMO their offense still can't be trusted. Looking at their raw batting stats it appears they are peaking upward but I'm not sold. They hit Greinke okay after he injured himself early and pitched through it, but beyond that they only really hurt Oakland's poor bullpen in that recent series and then got to a solid Arizona bullpen in that Greinke game. Hits are starting to pile up and I think they are out of their slump but still not anything special just yet offensively despite the recent run totals. Arizona's offense is hitting pretty but obviously won't score a ton against Kershaw... but this bet probably only needs 1 or 2 runs to win. This just seems like a game where someone wins 3-2. Just has that close game feel I suppose. Thought about the under but my theory about the Dodgers' offense still having issues is just a theory and I didn't want to risk a 2nd bet I'm wrong and they get to Godley.

    Lean o8.5 +100 in Athletics/Mariners but passing. I really like Manaea for the A's, Mariners are hitting everyone but he's really talented. Will be interesting to see who wins that battle with Seattle smacking around about everyone lately.

    Padres -115

    Tried to talk myself out of this but will play it anyway. So the Giants are starting to hit, facing a San Diego youngster named Lucchesi who is very talented but who also skipped a few levels of the Minors and might experience some struggles at some point. San Francisco has hit lefties well lately and I'm not entirely sure where Lucchesi slots in... but at the end of the day I had to play this because the Giants are starting a pitcher who has no business being in the Majors. They are rushing this youngster to the Majors due to injuries, but unlike Lucchesi he hasn't shown he's capable of dominating in the Minors. He has a 1.30ish WHIP in high A and AA and was hit hard in AA. The Padres don't really hit anyone but I have to believe that even their poor offense can hit this guy... an MLB club should be able to score off a guy that AAA lineups hit pretty hard, right? That's what I want to believe anyway. I could realistically see a scenario where this guy with no business in the Majors gets enough outs to do well since he's facing this stinky Padres offense but I just can't resist trying this one knowing the pedigree of both starters.

    Not even going to cap the 2nd Yankees/Tigers game. The first one just got canceled and it looks like the 2nd will as well.

    Really want to try the Rangers/Astros at u8.5 but I'm having a hard time figuring out if Houston can cover that by themselves. Colon gave up 8 runs over 5 innings against this Astros team last year but they aren't hitting as well as last year just yet. Verlander obviously does really well. Is this Astros' lineup capable of hitting the 44-year old while on a bit of a cold streak? I'm going back and forth on it. 8.5 seems high with Verlander likely to dominate. Colon could just as easily give up 2 runs over 6 innings and he could give up 6 runs over 2 innings. Pass but heavy lean toward under.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    is there a reason you cap games on the same day, instead of overnights?
    No good reason at least. What usually happens is I tell myself to wait until really late the night before to get the most accurate wind forecast I can find, then I start handicapping and get tired around halfway through and save the rest for later.

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