1. #16
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    I had the phillies much higher as well but I was confused so I looked closer and seen the game between Arrieta and Reed line 170 and compared Arrieta to Lively and I think Arrieta is about 60-70 cents better than Lively and and Lively is home so I guessed -130ish
    so 170 verse arrieta subtract say 70 for arrieta better than lively and add 30ish for home so I got -130ish and that made it a dont play for me! Yes I know my thinking is retarded but I was just agreeing way higher and then a closer look made me think -130ish

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    Record: 28-21 +6.49

    Lean Cubs but going to pass. A bit worried about their offense with Rizzo out but also think Nova might be slanting downward in his career. Meh, big card, better bets to find.

    Detroit Tigers +175

    Neither team here is hitting much of anything right now which makes the big dog more appealing. Tomlin wasn't that good last year, wasn't that good in spring, and then got rocked in his opener. He's getting older and simply put is a bit tough to trust right now. All the Tigers need is a few runs here to have a decent shot at the win. Boyd for the Tigers is coming off a great spring and looked excellent in his opener. He's always had potential to be a really good MLB pitcher and it seems like he might finally be putting it together. The Indians have 3 or fewer hits in 3 of their last 5 games and are striking out a good amount lately. Obviously the Tigers' bullpen is capable of giving up a million runs late but at close to 2/1 I'll roll the dice.

    Lean Mets/Marlins u8 but not sure I trust Smith just yet.

    Texas Rangers +125

    The Angels didn't hit lefties last year and haven't faced one since the 2nd game of the season where they didn't hit Manea at all. The Angels could be improved against lefties this year but they still have gone about 10 straight games against right-handed pitching and some rust is to be expected. Perez had good starts against LAA last year. The Rangers have done well enough against the 3 talented lefties they've faced this season and I think their offense is coming around. I don't trust Skaggs much. LAA has a decent bullpen edge but I have Texas as a small favorite here so will take them as dogs at home. Skaggs was hit hard in 3 of 4 starts last year against Texas and in 2 of his 3 career road trips against the Rangers. Perez isn't anything special but this just seems like a tossup at best.

    Minnesota Twins +142
    Twins/Astros u8 -105


    My fade of the Astros continues. They keep barely winning and costing me money but I'm not off of it yet. Houston simply isn't hitting right now and Odorizzi is a capable pitcher. Houston has the bullpen advantage and I'll probably lose my MLB bet in the later innings which seems to be the norm when I fade the Astros, but I'm still going to try it. Keuchel is a very good pitcher and I doubt the Twins will hit him much but until Houston proves they can score runs it makes sense to fade them. Someone wins 3-2.

    Mariners -113

    Felix isn't the pitcher he once was but how can you not hammer this line? The scary part is that the money has been on KC despite the public being on SEA... which usually is a spot I avoid but I can't hold off. This Skoglund guy for the Royals has no business starting. He got rocked in his spot start earlier this year, has been rocked about every time he's pitching in the Majors, and honestly has been hit pretty hard in the lower leagues as well. Does KC not have anyone better? Worst case scenario is Felix gets rocked but even then it's still a tossup since Skoglund almost never makes it past an inning or 2. This might be the square play of the day but I'm on it.

    Oakland Athletics +111
    Athletics/Dodgers u8.5 -120


    I'm a massive Manaea fan and he's been filthy so far. The Dodgers can't hit anyone right now and are unlikely to get it going against a potentially elite starting pitcher. Oakland's offense isn't sharp either but Ryu had control issues in spring and in his first start. He'll still probably find a way to put together solid innings against an Oakland squad that doesn't hit lefties that well but he's not 100% either. Seems like a game the A's win 4-2 or so.

    Arizona Diamondbacks -112

    I had this one closer to -135. Corbin is looking great to start this season and the Giants don't hit lefties (or much of anything really... at least right now). The DBacks' have the much stronger offense, the better bullpen, and the better start. This kid the Giants are starting is being rushed to the majors in a major way. It's not unheard of for these guys to come up and baffle opponents for 1 or 2 starts because no one has seen them but this seems super early for Beede. The guy wasn't even a good AAA pitcher last year and is making a massive jump. Even if he pulls one of those rabbit-out-of-the-hat starts due to limited tape I still feel Arizona has a good shot with a quality starter and the better pen.

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    Dragging a bit behind today but didn't like anything in the early games. First one I'll play is Arizona which doesn't start for a few hours. Will post the full card shortly.

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    Record: 32-25 +6.79

    Lean Rays/White Sox o8.5 but decided to pass. If the White Sox were hitting a tick better I'd take a shot.

    Diamondbacks -115

    The Giants aren't hitting, didn't hit lefties last year, and I don't trust their bullpen. Ray is an excellent pitcher and looked back to normal in his last start. He should do really well. Arizona's offense hasn't been particularly sharp lately but at only -115 when they have the better starter, better offense, and better bullpen... I feel like I have to play this. The youngster for SF is making his MLB debut, he's not awful but doesn't seem capable of dominating teams either. Seems like a guy that will put in 5 or 6 good innings and give up 2 or 3 runs regularly. Guy should do well enough but will give up some runs which should get the job done for Arizona.

    Lean to the Orioles and the over 9 but going to pass. Both pitchers have HR issues but Morales is out for the Jays which ultimately made me pass on the total. Passed on Orioles because Gausman had an iffy spring while messing around with a new pitch and I'm not sure where he's at. Neither offense is hitting well but this seems like a game where the teams hit a bunch of long balls. Ultimately I'll pass.

    Reds/Phillies o8 -105

    Neither offense is hitting and I'm questioning why I'm taking the over knowing that... but 8 is just too low for these teams. Cincy doesn't have Suarez in the lineup but Pivetta is almost never sharp and generally gives up runs while only lasting about 5 innings. Castillo for the Reds is a future stud but he's been really shaky to start the year and had a rough spring. Makes me think he's not 100% just yet. The Reds' bullpen is trash and always good to give up a few late runs. 8 is just too low for this matchup, but it wouldn't surprise me if someone won 1-0 either I guess.

    Marlins +132
    Mets/Marlins o8.5 -115


    Neither starting pitcher can be trusted here and neither bullpen is good. Both offenses are hitting well enough. Wheeler seems destined to give up runs here like he does in most starts. The kid the Marlins are starting has potential and if the over doesn't hit it's because he throws a nice game and I hit the ML play, but more likely is that he gives up some runs. The game seems like a tossup where the only starter I have much hope of trusting is starting for the Marlins. Garcia has been a stud out of pen this year but his minor league ERA is nothing to write home about. His minor league WHIP shows promise though... ultimately both starters and both bullpens are capable of giving up runs so I'll take the home dog and the over.

    Angels -107

    Figured I'd hammer the over here but the total is set really high and I couldn't pull the trigger. Matt Moore is not an MLB pitcher any more. He's just not good, his bullpen is not any good, the Angels are mashing on offense, and this park plays to the over. The Angels should score a bunch of runs. The one negative is that they didn't hit lefties well last year and have only faced 2 lefties all year but that didn't stop them from crushing Perez last night who is a far superior lefty to Moore. The Angels are starting an unknown in Barria due to all the pitcher injuries they have but he's been solid enough in the minors and looks the part of a decent pitcher. This is a big jump for him in a good park for hitters but the worst case scenario is he gets bombed along with Moore and then the Angels have a nice bullpen advantage for the later innings. I think he'll put in 5 decent innings, give up a few runs but it won't matter with Moore and the Texas bullpen getting beat up. After typing all that I'm kicking myself more for not taking the over but I'm just not sure I can touch a total at 11.5 that isn't in Coors... probably goes over though.

    Small lean on Pirates. Their offense has been really impressive. Going to pass though.

    Athletics/Dodgers u7.5 +100

    The A's aren't hitting well and aren't good against lefties. Wood should dominate and he has a nice pen behind him. The Dodgers haven't done much hitting this year and Mengden is better than his ERA indicates. He got nickel and dimed with lucky hits against the Angels in his opener and then was pitching well last game before taking a comebacker off his leg and committing an error that made his line look worse. He's a capable pitcher and against this somewhat lifeless Dodgers offense he should do well. I had this as u7.5 -120 or so.

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    Record: 34-29 +4.59

    Rough day yesterday, hoping to rebound.

    Cubs/Pirates o8.5 -105

    A play on the Pirates wouldn't be awful here but the total was stronger. The wind is a bit deceiving today as it's blasting out early but then might be coming in a bit later. Still worth a try on the over IMO. Trevor Williams is a solid enough pitcher but he's been a bit lucky this season and is facing a Cubs lineup that is hitting pretty well considering Rizzo has been out. On top of that the Pirates have a poor bullpen that Chicago is knocking around. Williams isn't the type of guy to go deep into games so even if he puts together a decent start you should get 3 or 4 innings against this struggling pen. I really like Hendricks for the Cubs and think he's a nice starter but the fact of the matter is that Pittsburgh's offense might be the hottest in baseball. Hendricks has some HR issues (has given up 2 HRs in 3 of last 4 starts) and the Pirates are hitting for power (2 HRs in 3 straight games). With the wind blowing out early it makes sense for the Pirates to get a couple easy runs. 8.5 is just too low.

    Tigers +180

    This would be a slam dunk under if the wind wasn't blasting out early today. It'll die down but I think the wind is enough to scare me off. Wind looks close to out at 20 MPH early and 10 MPH for the 2nd half of the game. If it was at 10 the whole way I'd try the under but I'll pass. Both of these teams are struggling badly to hit right now. 2 of the least in-form offenses in baseball. Both starters are in great form. Enjoy these prices on Fulmer while they last because he's an ace right now and should be one of the better pitchers over the next 5 seasons. I like him a lot. Bauer has put together 2 nice starts as well. Bauer is more HR-prone which helps the Tigers bet, although it's not overly significant. Detroit's awful pen has a chance to kill our hopes here but at nearly 2/1 with a stud pitcher facing a team that can't hit you have to try it. On top of that Detroit that rocked Bauer in like 6 straight starts.

    Can't cap the Rockies/Nats game yet as Blackmon and Arenado are both iffy. Wind is blasting out in that one and the ball will fly but need to figure out if those 2 studs are playing before doing anything. Will circle back around later if time permits.

    Twins/White Sox u8.5 +100

    I'm a big fan of Berrios and I don't think the White Sox are hitting well enough to get much done against him. They've failed to score a run against 3 of the last 4 right-handed starters they've seen and Berrios is as talented as any of them (other than maybe Fulmer who I love as well). The White Sox just aren't hitting much lately. Minnesota's bullpen is an issue but I think Berrios can go deep in this one to mitigate that. Giolito is less trustworthy but he's still a solid enough pitcher who shouldn't get rocked. Minnesota's offense has been hit or miss lately. They have the power to score some runs but under 8.5 at even money makes sense with Berrios set to dominate. Minnesota hit 3 HRs against Giolito last year and only got 4 runs over 6 which is doable for this total IMO, and that was when Minnesota was hitting better. I figure this game will have the White Sox up 3-1 or so after 6 innings which will hopefully be enough to get the job done.

    What the heck do I do in the Angels/Royals game? Tropeano making his return from Tommy John, wind is blasting out, Tropeano gives up a ton of HRs but KC is hitting for zero power this year and doesn't have Gordon... Ian Kennedy is throwing like an ace again after a poor 2017 but also has big HR issues and LAA is mashing. Value has been sucked out of Angels and the over so I'll pass. Really interesting game but just not seeing line value anywhere.

    Figured I'd like the Giants/Padres under but can't pull the trigger. Slight lean under (I had it around 8 at pk). Neither team can hit at all, the game is in Petco which is great for pitchers,and the wind is coming in really nicely. All that being said, these are 2 very tough-to-trust starters with 2 awful bullpens behind them. Just couldn't do anything with the game.

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    Votto out for Reds today.

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    Record: 34-29 +3.54

    Going to start handicapping and sending out plays the night prior to games from here on out. Wrigley Field games will have to wait until morning since the totals are so dependent on the wind report being accurate but the rest will be out the night before.

    Lean Rockies +159. Don't particularly trust either starter or either offense right now. Wind is blasting out and Roark seems like the pitcher that struggles more with the long ball. Pass for now. If Blackmon ends up playing I'll take another look.

    Orioles/Red Sox o10 -105

    Was thinking about a play on the Orioles here but think I'm going to pass for the time being. Tillman is just a mess and not capable of getting outs. The Red Sox are without Bogaerts and probably without Hanley but I don't think it will matter here as Tillman just can't get outs any more and the entire Red Sox lineup is mashing lately. Rodriguez for the Red Sox seems very hittable right now. He had knee surgery, had a short spring trying to rehab, and then came out and looked like had no command in his opener against the weak-hitting Rays who got to him really nicely. Baltimore has done well against left-handers and even at his best Rodriguez is HR-prone. Seems like this total might be over around the time the starters are run from the game.

    Cleveland Indians -128

    Price seems pretty low. Clevinger is pitching very well and the Blue Jays' offense hasn't hit that well lately. The wind is blowing out pretty well and Toronto has been a bit reliant on the long ball... but Clevinger doesn't give up many HRs. Stroman has a chance to do well here as the Indians aren't hitting particularly well either but I can't trust him just yet. He had an injury in spring and has struggled with his command through 2 starts as he tries to make up for lost time. The Indians are a bit reliant on the long ball lately too but Stroman is more likely to give them up and Cleveland has the better bullpen. At home this price seems short.

    Tampa Bay Rays -105

    I have the Rays at -130 so will take them at this cheaper price. Neither offense is particularly trustworthy. Philly gets a HR here or there and draw walks pretty well but they don't get many hits each game and in this under park where it's tough to hit a long ball I feel like their strategy will fail them. Faria is a quality starter and I think he's a tick better than Velasquez. Velasquez is decent enough but the Marlins seem like they are starting to hit a bit lately and TB has a small bullpen advantage. With HRs largely out of the equation I think the Marlins' offense is going to be the better bet to manufacture runs. Combine all of that and it makes sense to take the home team here.

    Lean Marlins +120. I like Peters a lot and don't like Kuhl at all... but the Pirates are mashing and the Marlins aren't hitting much. Peters was rushed to the majors and seems like the type of guy that will either dominate or get rocked... he has the stuff to succeed but probably won't be consistent for a little while. I wanted to play the under in this under park with the wind coming in but both of these bullpens are bad so I got scared off.

    Detroit Tigers +161
    Yankees/Tigers o9 -125 (2-unit play, doesn't count on record as 2-units, just noting)


    The total is the play of the day IMO. The Tigers aren't hitting that well lately but have somehow not faced a single lefty all year. Last season they couldn't hit righties but absolutely murdered left-handed pitching. Montgomery put together solid stats last year but faced a really weak lineup of opponents that could hit southpaws. Fiers for the Tigers is going to give up runs too. Ultimately I think both starters struggle which keeps the dog in play. As much as I'm scared of this Detroit bullpen, they are actually doing about as well as New York's pen thus far. Have to hit the dog and the over.

    Houston Astros -1.5 -125
    Rangers/Astros u8.5 +100


    Total just seems a tick too high. Hamels was decent enough against the Astros earlier this year and Texas' bullpen is doing well enough. Getting the impression that Houston's offense is heating up but thus far they've struggled to score. That being said, Cole is pitching incredibly while Texas isn't hitting much and will be without Odor and Andrus today. This just seems like a game where the Rangers might put up a goose egg. Let's say Houston wins 6-1.

    Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +105

    Scary one here but I can't resist. Last night the Royals faced a quality guy at home coming off a major injury who gives up a ton of HRs with the wind blasting out and they couldn't touch him. Same situation today, wind blasting out, quality pitcher coming off injury who has HR issues... you just can't expect the Royals to take advantage of that wind blasting out with the little amount of pop they have. With Gordon out they just aren't a threat to do much scoring. The Angels, meanwhile, are mashing. Hammel is very hittable and the Royals' bullpen has been a mess. Have to try the -1.5 even with all potential issues surrounding Heaney. I'm not sure the Royals could hit off a tee right now.

    Lean Diamondbacks but worried the Dodgers' offense is finally coming around. Tough to say, how they do against Greinke will show me a lot.

    Lean Mariners +100 but wind is blasting out and Oakland has more power.

    San Diego Padres -102

    Not that these pitchers need much help considering the spacious confines of Petco but the wind is coming in today. I have Ross as a slightly better starter than Blach and neither team is doing much hitting. Both bullpens were awful last year but are performing well this season. -102 seems cheap with the pitcher and home field advantages.

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    Enjoy reading your thoughts and just a suggestion I believe you can keep a separate record for your 2 unit plays. GL

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    Jake, you forgot to add the plays in for thursday were 34-29 going in and you went 1-2 makes the record 35-31. Thank You for sharing & just like OT I enjoy the writeups.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    Enjoy reading your thoughts and just a suggestion I believe you can keep a separate record for your 2 unit plays. GL
    Will probably just leave it be and those that want to double those bets can do so. Appreciate the suggestion though. Good to know that's possible.

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    Record: 38-37 -.9

    Rockies +180

    Neither of these teams are doing any hitting lately and both starters are very good. The Rockies might have a small edge in the bullpen but both sets of relievers are trustworthy. This isn't the blowout that the ML suggests. I fiddle around with playing the under here but the wind is supposed to be blowing out pretty nicely (neither starter is HR-prone FWIW) and there is the possibility that Charlie Blackmon could be back for the Rockies which helps the over. Maybe I'll take another look at the under tomorrow if the wind drives the total up.

    Twins -1.5 +115
    White Sox/Twins u8.5 -105


    Both bets are due to the fact that I think Lance Lynn will dominate this White Sox lineup. CHW isn't hitting at all and Lynn is a quality starter with a solid enough bullpen behind him. Gonzalez is a hittable starter and facing a Twins lineup that is putting a ton of guys on base every game while scoring runs well. The wind is blasting in which helps the under quite a bit, although the Twins don't really need the long ball to score (they've been scoring without it lately). I just don't see the White Sox scoring here.

    Braves +170

    No total on this one yet since it's Wrigley but FWIW the wind is expected to be absolutely blasting in tomorrow... which honestly doesn't help either pitcher as much as you'd think since neither gives up any HRs. Quintana is the more consistent of the 2 starters but Newcomb is the more talented starter. He battles control issues at times but when he's on he's usually getting through innings quickly. I rate both bullpens at about even. Atlanta maybe hitting a tick better than Chicago, at least since they lost Rizzo from the lineup. I only had the Cubs as -150 favorites.



    Going to cap the 4 PM ET and later games in the morning. Only made it halfway through the card. FWIW, there are 2 games off the board that I capped, my lines are:

    Cards -125, o9.5 -112
    Yankees -130, o10.5 -125

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    GL Jake. I've read and followed some of your MLB picks for many years now!

    I rarely post,but wishing you best of luck dude.

    - Ivan

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    Jake, again not trying to bust balls just trying to figure why our totals don't add up. I have -2.58 units and 3-5 yesterday which puts my total at 38-36 +.96. I counted the Detroit total as a 1 unit play. Thank You a decent size play for me I like how you acknowledge the play of the day. If and when you get a chance between handicapping the card could you let me know what I did wrong. Thanks again for sharing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bluejake View Post
    Jake, again not trying to bust balls just trying to figure why our totals don't add up. I have -2.58 units and 3-5 yesterday which puts my total at 38-36 +.96. I counted the Detroit total as a 1 unit play. Thank You a decent size play for me I like how you acknowledge the play of the day. If and when you get a chance between handicapping the card could you let me know what I did wrong. Thanks again for sharing.
    You're right once again. Trying to sink my own record apparently. For some reason was thinking I had the Boston total at 10.5 when the bet at 10 was a push. Nice catch.

    Record: 38-36 +.96

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    Twins/White Sox game is postpone so that bet for today is off.

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