Pomeranz still isn't right after his late start and injury. His velocity isn't where it needs to be and even when he was healthy last year the Yankees hurt him. This year the Yankees are more dangerous against lefties and I just don't think Pomeranz is ready for this tough of an assignment yet. Mookie playing for Boston makes their lineup scarier. Severino is obviously good but he also got hit hard by Boston earlier this year. The Red Sox don't need to score a lot to get this over. Excellent pens on both sides but ultimately I don't see Pomeranz pitching well here and both offenses are really talented. Worth a try at only 8. Yankees win 7-3.
As always the Reds' bullpen scares me but the Mets don't have a good pen either. Reds probably hitting a tick better and are at home. I don't trust Romano too much but I also don't trust Wheeler. Guy hasn't been the same since his injuries. I don't see any reason Cincinnati shouldn't be a decent sized favorite here.
Brewers +140
It's tough to know how Carrasco will pitch but he does seem a bit worse than last season and has had 2 bad outings in a row. Milwaukee's offense isn't anything special but they've been hitting okay and Cleveland's bullpen is falling apart in unison ever since Miller went down. It's tough to know what you'll get out of Guerra but he's been pretty nice this year and I'm not sure how good Cleveland's offense is hitting. They had a nice 5 or 6 game stretch where they were mashing but they were also facing some poor pitchers over that span. Their last 3 games in NYY they haven't shown the same pop and really just haven't done much hitting on the road. Guerra seems like he can do decently and the Brewers have a nice bullpen advantage. Just seems like the home team has a chance here.
Lean White Sox +113. Two talented but wild starters, Pirates probably have the better offense but neither team hitting particularly well, bullpens even. Seems closer to a pick for me, might play it later.
Lean Astros/A's u8.5 -115. Probably hits but seems like the ball will carry pretty well and Mengden had issues with the Astros last game. Guy likely pitches better at home and Cole should dominate but ultimately Mengden hasn't been going deep in games and the Athletics' pen is sketchy so I laid off.
Not a great start today. Over half the base runners have scored in MIN @ STL. Twins have gotten 11 guys on and scored 7 of them including 2 off errors. Still hoping for a push.
Stroman may finally be back to normal but there is no reason for this line to be at an 8. Stroman was solid last year vs. Seattle but the Mariners have a good lineup and now with Toronto's closer suspended the bullpen is much tougher to trust than before. Paxton hasn't been as sharp as last year and this Toronto team should hit lefties pretty well now that they are finally healthy. Mariners' bullpen is only average or maybe slightly below average. Can't put a ton of trust in either pen and I'm not sold on trusting these starters just yet either. 8 seems low. Segura back in there for Seattle helps their lineup after this migraines last game.
LOL can't make this up. Wade Miley, who I faded because he's awful, gets hurt after getting one out. The Brewers put in Brent Suter who is a better pitcher so I'm already a bit angry how that turned out... now Suter just took Kluber deep for a HR. I don't even know what's happening anymore.
Lean Yankees -143 but going to pass. Eduardo Rodriguez is better than his stats indicate and I'm not entirely sure how well the Yankees are hitting. Figured I'd like the under here but line was adjusted to where I figured it should be.
Mariners/Jays u9 -120
Happ has pitched well against the Mariners the last few years and is in a good groove right now. Should do nicely and has a strong pen behind him. Leake is better than his line indicates. Hasn't been particularly sharp but Toronto's offense isn't doing a ton of hitting lately. Mariners have an average pen which should do well enough to get us there with the total set fairly high. Lean Jays here as well but I've been playing too many MLs with middling success and am trying to only go after the ones I really love. Jays win 4-2.
Lean Marlins +110. Think they should be small favs. Braves having some offensive issues lately and aren't hitting lefties which they should be really good at. Folty for the Braves isn't that good of a pitcher but the Marlins aren't hitting much of anything. Don't trust either bullpen or I'd be all over the u8. Just don't think the home team should be an underdog with how well Smith has been throwing but ultimately he has random games where his command goes to heck so will pass.
Rockies -150
Marquez is a quality pitcher but he has his share of issues at Coors. That being said the Brewers aren't doing a ton of hitting right now and don't seem dangerous enough to put a big hurt on him. Marquez gave up 4 runs over almost 6 innings against them last year and I'd expect something similar although hopefully a tick better. The main reason I made this bet is because I don't think Chacin can pitch here. He got rocked in his Coors start last year and Colorado's offense is starting to peak. Brewers have the better pen but both are reliable. I think we have the better starter and better offense at home and -150 is short of where the line should be.
Lean Twins/Angels o7.5. Berrios and Richards are both excellent starters but both offenses are hitting pretty well. Berrios has been having some issues in recent starts. Ultimately the main reason why I considered this is I think both pens are capable of giving up runs. Richards doesn't go deep in games and Berrios hasn't been going deep lately. Seems like both starters could do decently enough but this might be one of those games where it's 2-1 after 6 innings and 5-4 final. Ultimately just a lean.
Lean o7.5 in Reds/Dodgers. Buehler has been good against some of the worst hitting teams in baseball but I still think it's a bit too early for him to have success at this level. Unfortunately Reds aren't hitting right now. Mahle is solid but also HR prone and LAD has some power in their lineup. Unfortunately once again.... not really hitting for power lately. Ultimately just a lean. Guessing Cincinnati's poor pen gets us to where we nee but too many question marks to bet it.
Cardinals -133
Mikolas has been very impressive and he's facing a San Diego team that doesn't provide much in the way of offense. He should go 7 or 8 innings while giving up a run or 2 before turning it over to a pretty reliable pen. Lyles for the Padres hasn't been able to get outs in the Majors for years. He's not good. He hasn't been able to get outs in the minors either. Just a guy that never lived up to his potential. St. Louis hasn't been hitting that well over their last 2 or 3 games but have been without Yaddy and Pham. Pham returns today and it should be a big boost for the offense. Petco Park has made poor pitchers pitch well before but I just don't think Lyles is good enough to have success here. Cards win 6-2.
Finishing up the card shortly. Here's the first half.
Line on the Cubs is way too high but not sure I can trust a bet on the White Sox. Fulmer has random games where he's pretty darn good but he's one of these guys that has been rushed to the Majors before he's ready. Cubs' offense seems to maybe be returning to normal after that cold stretch. White Sox hitting pretty darn well despite injuries but I wonder how long they can keep it up. Chatwood walks a lot of guys but the White Sox don't have a patient offense. Ultimately the Cubs should be favored at around -200 and now -240 but don't think I have the stones to try it. The wind blasting in doesn't really favor either pitcher as neither gives up many HRs.
Phillies -158
Mets aren't hitting and Arrieta shouldn't have any trouble with this lineup. Phillies have the pen advantage, Mets' pen can't be trusted. Matz is a sturdy enough lefty but he's been having back issues and just not looking that good lately. Philly is a middle of the road offense against lefties but they are hitting for nice power and Matz is HR-prone. Phillies' offense is in a good spot and I think they take a 6-2 win.
Lean Orioles -129. Line just seems low with TB's offense not hitting. Pens are both average, Gausman seems like maybe the tick better pitcher. Going to pass but doesn't seem bad.
Lean Marlins +125 but not sure I can trust Straily yet. He's coming off injury and didn't get a normal spring. Pitched well enough last start but I'm not sure where he's at. If he were healthy I'd take a shot as the Braves' offense is in a bit of a lull and McCarthy isn't anything special. Passing though.
Rangers/Astros u8 -115
Verlander has already dominated this Rangers lineup twice this season and shouldn't have much trouble making it 3 for 3. Hamels is still a solid lefty and has pitched pretty well against the Astros in 2 starts this year. Houston's offense is starting to hit lefties like they are capable of but this park plays to pitcher's and Hamels should do enough to get us the under. Texas' bullpen is worrisome but have to think this game only has 3 or 4 runs after 6 innings. Astros win 5-2.
Lean DBacks +175 but I just can't trust Koch. He shouldn't be pitching this well but just keeps together quality starts. He's probably overdue for a bad one but I might still take a shot later if this line starts climbing. Wind is blowing out at 24 MPH which is huge but I really don't know what affect it will have with the humidor and the stadium's retractable roof negating it a bit. Will be a good study to watch.
Twins/Angels o8.5 -105 (2-unit play, counted as 1-unit for record keeping)
Really like this one. Lynn finally showed some signs of life in his last start but it's clear that he's way behind on the year after starting late. He's pitched very poorly and his control hasn't been there. The Angels are hitting well again and even if Lynn has gotten it together he's still probably going to give up some runs. Then you have Skaggs who is pitching over his head. At best he's an average lefty and I don't think he's quite at that level. The Twins have hit lefties well and are hitting well of late. They also could get Buxton back to the lineup which will only make them stronger. The Twins' pen is a mess and the Angels' pen has had their own share of struggles. With neither one of these pitchers generally working deep into games that will certainly strengthen the over. On top of everything else the wind should be blowing out at 12 MPH.
Padres +135
Lauer is potentially stinky but have to think this one has legs. Didn't really want to bet on Lauer at first but the more I think about it the more I've convinced myself that this line is plenty generous. Cards not hitting lately and don't hit lefties well on the year. Getting Pham back will be good for them vs. lefties but Molina out is a ding. Ultimately Lauer should be in AA right now and I'm not sure I can trust him, but I'm not sure I can trust Weaver for the Cards either. Weaver has had a few bad starts in a row and is trying to figure out some control issues. He has ace potential and I have to think that pitching at Petco against this light-hitting Padres squad will get him back on track. Ultimately both pitchers are a bit of a mystery but seems like both can do well. Bullpens about even. Have to take the home dog here and hope Lauer doesn't implode.
Waiting to cap OAK @ NYY, BOS @ TOR, and MIL @ COL due to pitchers not yet named, and waiting to cap SEA @ DET for Castellanos' status.
I also need to stop assuming these stinky Padres pitchers will still pitch poorly in Petco (lots of P's in that sentence). Lyles looking halfway decent.
I don't know if you want my constructive criticism, but you remind me almost exactly of how I handicapped ten years ago, and you seem like a good guy, so here it is.
If you're handicapping off a general feel of which teams seem overrated/underrated by the market, you need to very carefully analyze your own write-ups as an objective third party. The big question is whether your analysis is definitely not something the books took into account while setting the line on the game. Sometimes you do find an angle, and sometimes you don't.
Also, research the concept of Confirmation Bias, and try and see how that might effect your thought processes and handicapping.
As for sides, it's very, very, very difficult to get any edge betting MLB favorites, unless you've found a book that has an odd line on a particular game. Getting a line that is much better than what Pinnacle is dealing is much more important than anything else there.
You're not going to get rich betting baseball. But if you have realistic expectations and constantly look for ways to improve and refine your methodology, you will have respectable results, and more importantly enjoy the process of betting and watching baseball (I get the feeling you have no problem with this last part).
I really hope you win. You're one of the good guys.
"As for sides, it's very, very, very difficult to get any edge betting MLB favorites, unless you've found a book that has an odd line on a particular game. Getting a line that is much better than what Pinnacle is dealing is much more important than anything else there."
what does that mean? can you clarify that better for me because it is difficult getting an edge on faves or dogs but why would you say it is harder to get an edge on faves over dogs?
Comments
Red Sox/Yankees o8 -120
Pomeranz still isn't right after his late start and injury. His velocity isn't where it needs to be and even when he was healthy last year the Yankees hurt him. This year the Yankees are more dangerous against lefties and I just don't think Pomeranz is ready for this tough of an assignment yet. Mookie playing for Boston makes their lineup scarier. Severino is obviously good but he also got hit hard by Boston earlier this year. The Red Sox don't need to score a lot to get this over. Excellent pens on both sides but ultimately I don't see Pomeranz pitching well here and both offenses are really talented. Worth a try at only 8. Yankees win 7-3.
Reds +106
As always the Reds' bullpen scares me but the Mets don't have a good pen either. Reds probably hitting a tick better and are at home. I don't trust Romano too much but I also don't trust Wheeler. Guy hasn't been the same since his injuries. I don't see any reason Cincinnati shouldn't be a decent sized favorite here.
Brewers +140
It's tough to know how Carrasco will pitch but he does seem a bit worse than last season and has had 2 bad outings in a row. Milwaukee's offense isn't anything special but they've been hitting okay and Cleveland's bullpen is falling apart in unison ever since Miller went down. It's tough to know what you'll get out of Guerra but he's been pretty nice this year and I'm not sure how good Cleveland's offense is hitting. They had a nice 5 or 6 game stretch where they were mashing but they were also facing some poor pitchers over that span. Their last 3 games in NYY they haven't shown the same pop and really just haven't done much hitting on the road. Guerra seems like he can do decently and the Brewers have a nice bullpen advantage. Just seems like the home team has a chance here.
Lean White Sox +113. Two talented but wild starters, Pirates probably have the better offense but neither team hitting particularly well, bullpens even. Seems closer to a pick for me, might play it later.
Lean Astros/A's u8.5 -115. Probably hits but seems like the ball will carry pretty well and Mengden had issues with the Astros last game. Guy likely pitches better at home and Cole should dominate but ultimately Mengden hasn't been going deep in games and the Athletics' pen is sketchy so I laid off.
Mariners/Jays o8 -110
Stroman may finally be back to normal but there is no reason for this line to be at an 8. Stroman was solid last year vs. Seattle but the Mariners have a good lineup and now with Toronto's closer suspended the bullpen is much tougher to trust than before. Paxton hasn't been as sharp as last year and this Toronto team should hit lefties pretty well now that they are finally healthy. Mariners' bullpen is only average or maybe slightly below average. Can't put a ton of trust in either pen and I'm not sold on trusting these starters just yet either. 8 seems low. Segura back in there for Seattle helps their lineup after this migraines last game.
Dodged a bullet. Someone bump this next time I complain about a rough loss. Was eyeballing the under.
Not good last few days. Hoping for a nice recovery today.
it's not bad---but it's certainly not "pretty darn good"
Lean Yankees -143 but going to pass. Eduardo Rodriguez is better than his stats indicate and I'm not entirely sure how well the Yankees are hitting. Figured I'd like the under here but line was adjusted to where I figured it should be.
Mariners/Jays u9 -120
Happ has pitched well against the Mariners the last few years and is in a good groove right now. Should do nicely and has a strong pen behind him. Leake is better than his line indicates. Hasn't been particularly sharp but Toronto's offense isn't doing a ton of hitting lately. Mariners have an average pen which should do well enough to get us there with the total set fairly high. Lean Jays here as well but I've been playing too many MLs with middling success and am trying to only go after the ones I really love. Jays win 4-2.
Lean Marlins +110. Think they should be small favs. Braves having some offensive issues lately and aren't hitting lefties which they should be really good at. Folty for the Braves isn't that good of a pitcher but the Marlins aren't hitting much of anything. Don't trust either bullpen or I'd be all over the u8. Just don't think the home team should be an underdog with how well Smith has been throwing but ultimately he has random games where his command goes to heck so will pass.
Rockies -150
Marquez is a quality pitcher but he has his share of issues at Coors. That being said the Brewers aren't doing a ton of hitting right now and don't seem dangerous enough to put a big hurt on him. Marquez gave up 4 runs over almost 6 innings against them last year and I'd expect something similar although hopefully a tick better. The main reason I made this bet is because I don't think Chacin can pitch here. He got rocked in his Coors start last year and Colorado's offense is starting to peak. Brewers have the better pen but both are reliable. I think we have the better starter and better offense at home and -150 is short of where the line should be.
Will finish the card at some point. Need to run.
Lean o7.5 in Reds/Dodgers. Buehler has been good against some of the worst hitting teams in baseball but I still think it's a bit too early for him to have success at this level. Unfortunately Reds aren't hitting right now. Mahle is solid but also HR prone and LAD has some power in their lineup. Unfortunately once again.... not really hitting for power lately. Ultimately just a lean. Guessing Cincinnati's poor pen gets us to where we nee but too many question marks to bet it.
Cardinals -133
Mikolas has been very impressive and he's facing a San Diego team that doesn't provide much in the way of offense. He should go 7 or 8 innings while giving up a run or 2 before turning it over to a pretty reliable pen. Lyles for the Padres hasn't been able to get outs in the Majors for years. He's not good. He hasn't been able to get outs in the minors either. Just a guy that never lived up to his potential. St. Louis hasn't been hitting that well over their last 2 or 3 games but have been without Yaddy and Pham. Pham returns today and it should be a big boost for the offense. Petco Park has made poor pitchers pitch well before but I just don't think Lyles is good enough to have success here. Cards win 6-2.
Line on the Cubs is way too high but not sure I can trust a bet on the White Sox. Fulmer has random games where he's pretty darn good but he's one of these guys that has been rushed to the Majors before he's ready. Cubs' offense seems to maybe be returning to normal after that cold stretch. White Sox hitting pretty darn well despite injuries but I wonder how long they can keep it up. Chatwood walks a lot of guys but the White Sox don't have a patient offense. Ultimately the Cubs should be favored at around -200 and now -240 but don't think I have the stones to try it. The wind blasting in doesn't really favor either pitcher as neither gives up many HRs.
Phillies -158
Mets aren't hitting and Arrieta shouldn't have any trouble with this lineup. Phillies have the pen advantage, Mets' pen can't be trusted. Matz is a sturdy enough lefty but he's been having back issues and just not looking that good lately. Philly is a middle of the road offense against lefties but they are hitting for nice power and Matz is HR-prone. Phillies' offense is in a good spot and I think they take a 6-2 win.
Lean Orioles -129. Line just seems low with TB's offense not hitting. Pens are both average, Gausman seems like maybe the tick better pitcher. Going to pass but doesn't seem bad.
Lean Marlins +125 but not sure I can trust Straily yet. He's coming off injury and didn't get a normal spring. Pitched well enough last start but I'm not sure where he's at. If he were healthy I'd take a shot as the Braves' offense is in a bit of a lull and McCarthy isn't anything special. Passing though.
Rangers/Astros u8 -115
Verlander has already dominated this Rangers lineup twice this season and shouldn't have much trouble making it 3 for 3. Hamels is still a solid lefty and has pitched pretty well against the Astros in 2 starts this year. Houston's offense is starting to hit lefties like they are capable of but this park plays to pitcher's and Hamels should do enough to get us the under. Texas' bullpen is worrisome but have to think this game only has 3 or 4 runs after 6 innings. Astros win 5-2.
Twins/Angels o8.5 -105 (2-unit play, counted as 1-unit for record keeping)
Really like this one. Lynn finally showed some signs of life in his last start but it's clear that he's way behind on the year after starting late. He's pitched very poorly and his control hasn't been there. The Angels are hitting well again and even if Lynn has gotten it together he's still probably going to give up some runs. Then you have Skaggs who is pitching over his head. At best he's an average lefty and I don't think he's quite at that level. The Twins have hit lefties well and are hitting well of late. They also could get Buxton back to the lineup which will only make them stronger. The Twins' pen is a mess and the Angels' pen has had their own share of struggles. With neither one of these pitchers generally working deep into games that will certainly strengthen the over. On top of everything else the wind should be blowing out at 12 MPH.
Padres +135
Lauer is potentially stinky but have to think this one has legs. Didn't really want to bet on Lauer at first but the more I think about it the more I've convinced myself that this line is plenty generous. Cards not hitting lately and don't hit lefties well on the year. Getting Pham back will be good for them vs. lefties but Molina out is a ding. Ultimately Lauer should be in AA right now and I'm not sure I can trust him, but I'm not sure I can trust Weaver for the Cards either. Weaver has had a few bad starts in a row and is trying to figure out some control issues. He has ace potential and I have to think that pitching at Petco against this light-hitting Padres squad will get him back on track. Ultimately both pitchers are a bit of a mystery but seems like both can do well. Bullpens about even. Have to take the home dog here and hope Lauer doesn't implode.
Waiting to cap OAK @ NYY, BOS @ TOR, and MIL @ COL due to pitchers not yet named, and waiting to cap SEA @ DET for Castellanos' status.
If you're handicapping off a general feel of which teams seem overrated/underrated by the market, you need to very carefully analyze your own write-ups as an objective third party. The big question is whether your analysis is definitely not something the books took into account while setting the line on the game. Sometimes you do find an angle, and sometimes you don't.
Also, research the concept of Confirmation Bias, and try and see how that might effect your thought processes and handicapping.
As for sides, it's very, very, very difficult to get any edge betting MLB favorites, unless you've found a book that has an odd line on a particular game. Getting a line that is much better than what Pinnacle is dealing is much more important than anything else there.
You're not going to get rich betting baseball. But if you have realistic expectations and constantly look for ways to improve and refine your methodology, you will have respectable results, and more importantly enjoy the process of betting and watching baseball (I get the feeling you have no problem with this last part).
I really hope you win. You're one of the good guys.
what does that mean? can you clarify that better for me because it is difficult getting an edge on faves or dogs but why would you say it is harder to get an edge on faves over dogs?