1. #151
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    Cardinals/Wacha -165

    Not a bad pitching matchup as both Wacha and Junis have been in fine form over their last few starts. Both have similar Swinging Strike Rates and similar Line Drive Rates. I'll side with Wacha here though as the Royals offense has been struggling over the last 7 days with a paltry .217 AVG/.610 OPS and an average of 2.8 runs scored per game, 6th worst in the MLB during the time frame. Compare this to the Cardinals offense who have a .314 AVG/.837 OPS with 5.6 runs per game over the last 7 days.

    Twins/Gibson -163

    While the Royals offense has been bad.....the Detroit Tigers has been straight non-existent over the last 7 days with a .190 AVG/.507 OPS and less than 1.9 runs scored per game. The Tigers are known for sitting most of their regulars on get away days which produces horrendous AAA team style looking lineups that just don't perform well. So far this season the Tigers are 4-10 in the final game of a series.

  2. #152
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    YTD: 109-109, -20.85u

  3. #153
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    Phillies/Arrieta +160

    Arrieta and Maeda have both been good SPs this year. Both have been in fine form their last few starts and both are on teams whose offenses have similar results vs RHP so far this season. Both pitchers also have solid BvP against the opposing team in limited sample sizes.....and yet....the line currently has Arrieta as a significant underdog. One could argue that the potential absence of OF Rhys Hoskins should give support to the Dodgers line, but, A) Hoskins only suffered a lip cut and could very well be reinserted into the lineup today and B) Hoskins has been ice cold over the last 2 weeks anyway, with a.125 AVG over that time period, so its not like they were getting much value add from him lately.

    Rockies/Freeland -137

    Jeff Samardzija is still searching for his stuff as he continues to struggle to miss bats with a below avg Swinging Strike Rate mark of 8.2%. In particular....he doesn't seem to have a feel for his curveball yet as its usage is down about 7% with the offset being in his fastball usage. The problem for him is that his fastball right now is a much more hittable pitch due to his velocity being down about 2 ticks from its average from last season. Without his swing and miss stuff, he's at the mercy of the BABIP gods which is not a good recipe for potential success tonight with his current batted ball profile (34% GB, 66% FB/LD) being in Colorado. The Rockies also have excellent historical BvP stats against him with a .306 AVG, .855 OPS across 230 Plate Appearances.

    Mets/Matz +122

    Typically this is not a good match-up situation for Matz as the Braves have done quite well against LHP so far this season. However, the Braves are pressing Anibal Sanchez into a tough situation here as he will come off the DL to make today's start on only 3 days rest. With the Braves bullpen being used heavily yesterday, in the event of a short start, the only primary go to option is Matt Wisler who has been struggling with hard contact lately (35% Line Drive Rate this month).

    Indians/Clevinger -265

    I'm actually really comfortable with this big favorite play today as Clevinger should be a solid bet to bounceback from what you could argue was his worst start of the season. It was also the 1st time he's been below double digit swings and misses since the beginning of April when he opened the season with 3 straight games missing the mark by 1 pitch. On the White Sox side, Lucas Giolito just isnt a viable MLB SP right now as he continues to struggle with pretty much everything. Over his last 3 starts he hasn't been throwing strikes (53%), he hasnt been missing bats (6.6%), he hasn't been holding runners well (5 SB), and he hasn't been able to keep runners off the basepaths (28 baserunners in 13 IP). Hell....he's 8.31 ERA over that time span could be A LOT worse had it not been for some BABIP luck as he's actually running a very unsustainable .238 mark right now. With Carlos Rodon nearing the completion of his rehab assignment.....this could be the last we see of Giolito in 2018.

  4. #154
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    YTD: 112-110, -18.25u

  5. #155
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    Indians/Kluber -263

    We've already walked through this before....Kluber at home is near automatic and that has continued in 2018 with a 4-0 record with a 1.46 ERA and a .199 AVG against. In addition, we have some high winds today blowing out to LCF at 15mph. This will hurt Lopez (35% GB, 47% FB, 18% LD) WAY more than it will hurt Kluber (49% GB, 30% FB, 21% LD) due to the batted ball profiles they each have.

    Cardinals/Reyes -111

    The new ace of the Cardinals staff is finally here. While I generally do not use SP in their 1st start off the DL....what Reyes did during his rehab assignment is otherworldly. I have never seen a SP come back from Tommy John showing the premium stuff he did over his 4 rehab starts. To put things in perspective for you.....in his 4 rehab starts, Reyes K'd 54%!!! of the batters he faced which included a start in the dreaded Pacific Coast League. His swinging strike rate was over 24% and his AVG against was a paltry .096 with a .241 BABIP. Even if you do a base level and add 50 points to the batting average....that still an incredible .146 AVG against. On the other side Guerra has been pitching well and inducing quite a bit of weak contact, but, he has been outperforming his metrics and has now put himself into regression territory with a FIP (4.07) that is over a full run higher than his current ERA (2.98). Add in a Cardinals team that has solid BvP stats against him (.354 AVG, 1.050 OPS) and a scorching hot Matt Carpenter (.404 AVG, 1.138 OPS, 4 HR over last 2 weeks) and you have yourself a solid play.

    Astros/Keuchel +173

    Wow....Severino is good.....but this seems like major overkill. Especially considering that Severino has seen a dip in his swinging strike rate over the last 3 games with a 9.9% rate vs the 13.8% rate he had been running before that. He's also been giving up a ton of hard contact lately with 50%+ Hard Contact Batted Balls over those last 3 starts as well compared to his normal rate of 22% before that. Keuchel hasnt been AS good as previous seasons....but has a Batted Ball profile that fits in Yankee Stadium and prior BvP success against them (.187 AVG, .588 OPS).

    Braves/Teheran -147

    A severely burnt out bullpen and a lefty SP going on 3 days rest after he was just shelled his last time out? Against the best hitting team in the MLB vs LHP? This couldn't possibly be a worse situation for the Mets.

  6. #156
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    YTD: 113-113, -20.83

    Tigers/Carpenter +179

    The Angels are clearly the better team and have a far superior lineup today....but the Tigers have played in more day games than anyone else in baseball and have a 16-12 record when the sun's out. Their offense is much better during the day (.775 OPS vs .665 OPS) and is also better vs LHP (.763 OPS vs .710 OPS). While Carpenter is usually trash, the Angels have struggled vs LHP this season ranking in the bottom 1/3rd with a .688 OPS against the southpaws.

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    Dodgers/Kershaw -162

    Kershaw returns from the DL tonight with no sort of rehab work. While that generally is something I wouldn't side with....this will be the 4th time in his career that Kershaw will have done this. His other 3 attempts combined, he has a 1.13 ERA with 21 Ks and 0 BB in 16 IP including shutouts in 2 of the 3 games. Not to mention that Kershaw is pretty much unbeatable at home with a career 2.07 ERA.

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    YTD: 113-113, -20.83

    Tigers/Carpenter +179

    The Angels are clearly the better team and have a far superior lineup today....but the Tigers have played in more day games than anyone else in baseball and have a 16-12 record when the sun's out. Their offense is much better during the day (.775 OPS vs .665 OPS) and is also better vs LHP (.763 OPS vs .710 OPS). While Carpenter is usually trash, the Angels have struggled vs LHP this season ranking in the bottom 1/3rd with a .688 OPS against the southpaws.
    Excellent.

  9. #159
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    YTD: 114-114, -20.66u

    Phillies/Velasquez +112

    In my opinion the wrong SP is favored here. In his 7 starts this season, Albert Suarez has only posted a Quality Start once including having allowed 4 runs or more in each of the last 4 games he has pitched. He hasn't been missing bats either as he has been running a paltry 7.3% Swinging Strike Rate. For the Phillies, Velasquez has been in excellent form over the last 5 starts with a 2.30 ERA and a .202 AVG against during that time. This is a result of a repertoire usage change he made at the beginning of the month, scrapping the changeup in exchange for emphasizing his slider more. The move has been a smart one for Velasquez as batters have a ridiculously low .100 AVG against the slider as well as a solid 16.2% Whiff Rate vs the pitch.

    Rangers/Hamels +163

    The Angels struggles vs LHP continue as they weren't even able to score runs against Ryan Carpenter. Today they bring their righty heavy lineup to face Cole Hamels....who's actually been superb vs RHP so far this season holding them to a .216 AVG/.742 OPS. Hamels also seems to have a knack for performing better against tougher teams and sucking vs weak teams. In 2018, Hamels has made 9 starts vs teams with a record above .500 and has a 2.87 ERA with a 10.0 K/9 rate in those games.

    Mets/deGrom -111

    Can the bullpen just please do their DAMN job! Thankfully Callaway was able to save Gsellman and should also have Lugo available out the pen tonight due to not needing a 5th SP with multiple off-days coming up. There is also an outside chance that high leverage RP Anthony Swarzak could finally be ready to come off the DL having made 2 scoreless appearances in (AAA) Las Vegas. That should provide deGrom with some sense of relief as he continues his ridiculous excellent form having not allowed more than 1 run in any of his last 7 starts.

    Tigers/Boyd +135

    ANOTHER day game for the Tigers and another match-up for their SP where the opposing team struggles vs LHP (Blue Jays rank 23rd in OPS vs LHP with a .694). In addition, with Miguel Cabrera back from the DL, the Tigers finally have their full opening day lineup healthy again and running HOT at the same time. Currently Candelario, Castellanos, Martin, and Iglesias all rank among the Top 100 hitters over the last 7 days.

    Indians/Bauer -142

    I'm not being fooled by Lynn's decent last few starts. While he is starting to find the strike zone with a little more frequency....he is still not missing bats as he continues to a run one of the worst SwStr rates in baseball at 5.9% over his last 4 starts. Enter the Cleveland Indians who are on a ridiculous offensive tear lately averaging 8 runs a game and possessing 5 bats (Encarnacion, Ramirez, Alonso, Lindor, and Brantley) among the Top 30 hitters over the last 7 days. Oh...and they also have 3 other bats between #31 and #100 (Kipnis, Allen, Cabrera).

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    YTD: 116-117, -21.2u

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    Nationals/Scherzer -240

    Max Scherzer at home vs a team that ranks 4th worst in the MLB in Home Runs (Scherzer's one weakness).

    Red Sox/Wright -180

    The Tigers are 1 of, if not the most, conservative team when it comes to game workload for their players. With most of their regulars playing both sides of the doubleheader yesterday, and no off day coming up, I would expect some of them to sit today....especially Miggy who just came back from injury. For the Tigers, Artie Lewicki drew the short stick and is getting a spot start against the Sox who have been posting a solid .830 OPS over the last week even without Mookie Betts. While Lewicki does have a decent curveball, he still has been extremely hittable over his career with a 1.816 WHIP due to the fact that his fastball has very little movement.

    Indians/Kluber -200

    Continued follow ups of Corey Kluber at home.

  12. #162
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    Twins/Littell -165

    Continued fading of Lucas Giolito who has just been flat out terrible. The stars are aligned for this to be Giolito's last start for the team as Carlos Rodon will be activated on Saturday so I'll get 1 last shot in on this dumpster fire.

  13. #163
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    YTD: 119-118, -19.85u

    Braves/Foltynewicz -128

    Today is a pure bullpen day for the San Diego Padres with Matt Strahm opening things for them against the Braves. This is a major problem for the Padres considering they just got shelled last night by the Braves and had to burn both of their long relief options (Hughes and Mitchell) leaving Robbie Erlin and Jose Castillo as the primary backups to Strahm. The 3 of them are in a match-up nightmare though as they are all left handed the Braves have crushed LHP all season with a .795 OPS on the season.

    Yankees/Gray -140

    Sonny Gray's stark home vs away split differences continue. In Yankee Stadium he continues to be horrible with a 7.22 ERA in 6 starts this season vs a .3.67 ERA in 5 starts on the road. That road ERA is inflated by 1 bad start vs the Red Sox too as he has allowed 2 ER or less in the other 4 of those 5 road starts. Today he faces a Blue Jays team that is in a downward spiral with all the injuries they have sustained having lost 4 of their last 5 games, hitting only .204 AVG during that time span. Gray has also dominated these Blue Jays in the past as current hitters have a paltry .209 AVG/.592 OPS across 131 Plate Appearances during his career.

    Tigers/Hardy +188

    I like this as a sneaky play. The Red Sox have struggled vs LHP all season and their struggles are compounded with Mookie Betts on the Disabled List. On the flip side, the Detroit Tigers have the 3rd best OPS in the MLB against southpaws just behind the Braves and the Yankees; a mark that should improve with Miggy back in the lineup.

    Phillies/Nola +122

    This line should be more even in my opinion as Nola has just flat out been a WAY better pitcher than Quintana has this season. While Quintana's last start was nice.....it was against the Mets, a team that can't hit a wet paper bag if it came from a lefty's hand. The fact remains that Quintana just isnt missing bats with any regularity as he is posting a below average 8.1% Swinging Strike rate and has posted fewer than 10 Swings and Misses in all but 2 of his starts. Quintana also hasn't strung together back to back Quality Starts yet this season.

  14. #164
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    YTD: 120-121, -22.13u

    Red Sox/Beeks -165

    This could be a bad matchup for Matt Boyd when factoring in the expected weather conditions. Fenway Park is expected to have winds blowing out to the Green Monster above 15 mph today giving a nice boost to RH bats. Matt Boyd is the owner of one of the most Fly ball leaning batted ball rates in the MLB right now with a 31% GB, 49% FB, 20% LD split. Among SPs only 3 guys have a Fly Ball rate that is higher (Verlander, Estrada, and Odorizzi).On the other side, Jalen Beeks also seems to have a fairly decent fly ball rate at 42% so far in 2018.....but there is also a consistent oddity in those fly ball numbers. A TON of those registered fly balls are of the Infield Fly variety. During his ENTIRE minor league career Beeks has usually been around an incredibly high 25% IFFB Rate. I cannot recall EVER seeing a mark that high before for a minor league career. Its intriguing enough for me not to be worried about the wind with him.

    Mariners/Leake -110

    This "opener" idea was cute at first...but with Archer on the DL now...the Rays are now using it 3 to 4 times a week causing them to overexpose their bullpen which is causing some issues as they have lost their last 3 "opener" usage games. Today Ryan Stanek will open for Austin Pruitt which isnt necessarily terrible as both have been pitching well, but, with Font/Andriese tied up for tomorrow's game, Yarbrough/Venters used yesterday, and Castillo/Alvarado unlikely to be available after both throwing 20+ pitches.....that leaves only Vidal Nuno to try to bridge the game to Chaz Roe and Sergio Romo. Not exactly ideal considering Nuno has been struggling to throw strikes lately.

    Royals/Hammel +141

    Royals/Athletics over 8.5 runs -113


    I am shocked that the A's are using Blackburn today. Not only is this his 1st start of the season after missing significant time due to forearm pain....but he's only thrown 3 rehab innings and got shelled....in an A+ baseball game. He's never had an ability to miss bats (6% SwStr Rate in 2017), he doesn't throw a ton of strikes (59% Strike Rate in 2017), and gives up a solid amount of hard contact (26% LD Rate in 2017). Now all this said....this is a horrible matchup for Hammel as well so I'm gonna back up this underdog play with the total. Winds are blowing out to LCF at over 17 mph.

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    YTD: 121-124, -24.91

    Tigers/Fiers +131

    The Detroit Tigers continue to have success in only 2 types of game condition situations....during the day (21-20) and vs LHP (12-9). Today they get both as they have a 1pm game vs LH rookie Ryan Borucki.

    White Sox/Shields +181

    Sure, the Cincinnati Reds are on a nice little hot steak but my goodness....I'm not sure how you can justify Luis Castillo as this big a favorite considering he has not produced a quality start since May 24th. The White Sox as a team have also been hitting much better since the return of Avisail Garcia, who is hitting .333 with a 1.024 OPS, averaging 5.6 runs per game. James Shields has been in a nice run of form lately too with 7 Quality Starts in his last 9 games. On the season, he's been extremely tough on LHP, holding them to a .195 AVG, .628 OPS which will give him an advantage vs this lefty heavy Reds lineup.

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