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    Default 2018 Baseball plays

    901 Cubs/Lester -210

    A couple of Marlins actually have solid BvP stats vs Jon Lester, but they are all hurt. No Martin Prado, no JT Realmuto and no JT Riddle to start the season. The only guy remaining with significant ABs vs Lester is Starlin Castro, who is .100 career vs Lester while playing in mostly solid lineups. This Marlins lineup is awful in its current form. On the Cubs side, everyone is healthy and has good stats vs Urena. Happ in particular has owned Urena with a 2.067 OPS against. More important, Urena will likely burn a lot of pitches early as he has a history of "pitching around" the big bats of Rizzo and Bryant (seven walks in 18 plate appearances). This will cause the Marlins to go to their lackluster bullpen early. Another plus is that Lester is coming off a down year, and could be in better form this year. Joe Maddon has been raving about him in spring and says he's the best he can remember him looking.

    908 Braves/Teheran +110

    The Phillies' right-handed heavy lineup has an extensive history facing Teheran and have done poorly. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr all have career averages below .200 vs Teheran. The one Phillie who has done well, Maikel Franco, has vanished from the earth and isn't the player he once was. On the flip side, the Braves have a naturally lefty heavy lineup which is something Phils starter Aaron Nola struggles against. In his career, lefties have an OPS that is 91 basis points higher than vs righties. Freddie Freeman in particular has a 1.132 OPS vs Nola with only two career K's in 18 plate appearances. Last note, the wind will be blowing IN hard from right field in this game - this is a disadvantage to the Phils' mostly righty lineup.

    921 Red Sox/Sale -155

    Chris Sale owns the Rays. With 98 plate appearances against, the current active Rays only have a .194 avg against him. Even more daunting is that in Tropicana Field, Sale has only allowed a .154 avg against with a 7.3 K to BB ratio, his best stats in any AL Park. This is clearly a place that he likes to pitch at, and his stats have come against lineups that were better than this current Rays lineup. On the flip side, the Sox have done pretty well vs Archer in his career and they have seen him a ton. With 286 plate appearances against, the current Red Sox roster has a .271 average against. Archer does limit them from hitting HRs - but this isn't the Red Sox's game anyways (aside from Mookie Betts who has 4 HRs against him and 10 RBIs in 39 PA's). Doesn't matter much, but just noting the Sox were in superb form pretty much the entire month of March in ST.

    YTD: 0-0, 0.0

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    YTD: 2-1, +0.45u

    Nationals/Scherzer -193

    Scherzer has dominated the Reds in the past. Current players have just a .220 avg against and in his career he has held all Reds players to a .163 avg. Bailey has a career .435 avg vs active Nationals. In particular, 1B Matt Adams has had really good success with a 1.733 OPS in his career vs Bailey.

    Red Sox/Price -140

    David Price had himself a very strong Spring. Showed the swing-and-miss stuff and a strong K rate that made him a stud ace in the past. Active Rays batters have a paltry .116 AVG against him and having been a former Ray, Price has extensive history pitching in Tropicana Field with a career 2.88 ERA. Even during his 2016 down year, Price still pitched well there. Blake Snell is on the mound for the Rays and there is pretty limited BvP data available. The few guys who do have ABs against him have had some success: Betts, HanRam, Bradley Jr., and Benintendi all have OPS marks above .800 vs Snell.

    Rockies/Anderson +130

    Diamondbacks were in the bottom of half of MLB in OPS vs lefties in 2017. With the club returning most of their players from last season that mark should hold for 2018 as well. As long as Anderson can avoid facing Goldschmidt he should do OK today. Goldy has a career 1.143 OPS against him but has been walked 6 times in 14 plate appearances. On the flip side, as good as I expect Robbie Ray to be this season, the Rockies own him. Current active players are batting .361 with a 1.079 OPS against him. The Rockies' big hitters — Blackmon, Arenado, CarGo, and Story — all have OPS marks above 1.000. Both teams used quite of bit of their bullpens yesterday, but the Rockies were able to save their key guys (Shaw, McGee and Davis) whereas the D’backs burned them.

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    YTD: 4-2, +1.68u

    902 Mets/deGrom -120

    St. Louis, on a total basis, has decent BvP stats vs deGrom. However, the splits on that information is misleading. deGrom has made 5 career starts vs Cardinals. When he faces them in Busch Stadium, he has a career 8.44 ERA with 7 HRs allowed in only 16 IP. In Citi Field though, deGrom has an 0.62 ERA with a 9.2 K/9 rate. deGrom also has a 17-8 record in his career and a 1.99 ERA in day games. From the Cardinals standpoint, there is not much BvP data for current Mets players vs Wacha outside of Bruce and Frazier from their days with the Reds. Frazier has had success with a .849 OPS against, but Bruce has struggled with a .105 OPS.

    919 Yankees/Sabathia -105

    Sabathia has been solid vs current Blue Jays hitters in his career. In 234 Plate Appearances against him, Blue Jays hitters have been held to a .235 AVG and a .662 OPS. On the other side, Estrada also has an extensive history vs current Yankees hitters. With 164 PA against him, Yankee hitters have a .255 AVG BUT with a .926 OPS. This is thanks to the 15 HRs he's given up against them. Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, and Neil Walker all have OPS marks above 1.000 in their careers vs Estrada. The Yanks' offense has come out of the gates firing, while the Jays' Donaldson is playing with fatigue in his arm which will be detrimental to his defense and power potential. There's a chance he may get moved to DH which would weaken the Jays' lineup even more by pushing Morales out of the lineup in exchange for Solarte.

    923 Red Sox/Porcello -129

    Current Rays have a .267 avg with a .735 OPS against Porcello. However most of the positive damage comes from Brad Miller. He alone has a .297 AVG with a 1.144 OPS against with 9 of his 11 hits being doubles or HRs against Porcello in 39 plate appearances. No other Rays player has an OPS mark above .766. For Tampa Bay, they are using a bullpen day. Andrew Kittredge will start for the team but likely cannot go more than 3 IP as he is not stretched out. After him you will likely see rookies Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough, both of which were rushed to the MLB due to extensive injuries to the club's MLB arms. The Sox have gotten hits so far but have not driven them in from scoring position (3 for 14 with RISP) while the Rays' bats have been cold; only eight hits so far vs 17 strikeouts.

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    Check your total I have U winning +1.00 unit yesterday and were + .45 going into 3-30. Thank You for sharing with the board.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bluejake View Post
    Check your total I have U winning +1.00 unit yesterday and were + .45 going into 3-30. Thank You for sharing with the board.
    All plays are to win 1 unit.

    I did notice the record keeping guidelines state the following:

    All picks must be unweighted. This means risking one unit on + odds and risking enough to win one unit on - odds. For example, a +130 dog would be recorded as risking 1u to win 1.3u. A typical wager at -110 would be recorded as risking 1.1u to win 1u
    However, I personally think risking 1 unit on dogs (when favorites are to win 1 unit), is bad strategy. So I kindly ask that I be allowed to have favorites be 1.XX to win 1; and dogs to be 0.XX to win 1 for the sake of this thread.

    For clarity, I graded Braves +110 on 3/29 as a 1 unit win on opening day, rather than a 1.1 unit win.

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    Please follow the rules. They are there for a reason and we don't make exceptions for individual posters.

    If you prefer, you can choose to simply not keep a record.

    Thanks for understanding,

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    Fixing unit count to conform with forum grading rules (thru 3/31).

    YTD: 6-3, +2.5u

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    Fixing unit count to conform with forum grading rules (thru 3/31).

    YTD: 6-3, +2.5u
    It's a pain-- but, I believe you can always keep 2 separate records---- one that you use, and one going by forum rules.

    Just a note-- what's your reasoning for betting less than 1 unit on dogs. To me, it looks like you're losing one of the main advantages of betting baseball (assuming a person is mainly a dog bettor) Just wondering-- not meant as a criticism.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BetThemDogs View Post
    Just a note-- what's your reasoning for betting less than 1 unit on dogs. To me, it looks like you're losing one of the main advantages of betting baseball (assuming a person is mainly a dog bettor) Just wondering-- not meant as a criticism.
    An explanation given in a prior BT thread gives a good overview.

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    961 Yankees/Gray +100

    Gray has been incredibly good vs current Blue Jays hitters in his career. In 117 Plate Appearances against him, Blue Jays hitters have been held to a .180 AVG and a .489 OPS. In his 5 career starts at Rogers Centre, Gray has a 2.32 ERA with 31 Ks in 31 IP. On the other side, Stroman also has solid BvP stats vs current Yankees hitters. Outside of Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner, no Yankee has an OPS mark above .600. That said, there is a strong possibility that Stroman is not stretched out enough. He only made 2 spring training starts due to a late start to camp because of an injury. He certainly can still go 6.0 IP, however, expect there to be some fatigue as his pitch count rises. Donaldson has been moved to DH which has pushed Morales out of the lineup in exchange for Solarte. An injury to McKinney for the Yanks will slide Gardner back into a starting role which is beneficial given his career numbers vs Stroman.

    967 Astros/Cole -155

    Minor is on the mound for the Rangers as they push forward with the experiment to use him as a SP. Getting much length out of him could prove difficult as he has not yet shown success in appearances longer than 4.0 IP. As a SP, his Fastball velocity has also been scaled back which so far in spring has led to a much lower K rate than what he generated in the bullpen last season. This will be a very difficult matchup for him as well. The Astros are one of the best hitting teams vs LHP in MLB. For the Astros, Cole has been working with the Astros analytics team this spring and has been directed to use his curveball more. So far in Spring Training, that has resulted in a higher K rate than he has produced in his career thus far. Texas used a lot of bullpen arms in yesterday's game. With a potential short start from Minor, we could see some fatigued arms used today.

    970 Athletics/Gossett +115

    Shohei Ohtani making his 1st career MLB start vs one of the top power hitting offenses in the MLB, with the wind blowing out in this one. Ohtani struggled mightily in spring training with his command and with the long ball. He doesn't seem adjusted to the USA style mound or baseball yet but the Angels are still going to throw him out there. For the A's, Gossett is on the mound looking to improve on his rookie season. He made 1 start vs the Angels last season allowing 2 runs on 9 hits with 6 Ks in 7 IP. He has displayed better swing-and-miss stuff in spring training and posted solid numbers for most of camp. The Angels have used their bullpen heavily the first few days whereas the A's are relatively rested thanks to Pagan chewing up multiple innings in the last two days.

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    An explanation given in a prior BT thread gives a good overview.
    It should be noted, that a very successful Dr H also employs this betting strategy. I have bet baseball for many years and about 5 years ago began implementing this bet size strategy, and it has helped my bottom line. Mathematically sound too (and I play a lot of dogs, although that has changed over the past few years also).

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    YTD: 7-5, +1.5u

    916 Tigers/Liriano -105

    Liriano has solid BvP numbers vs current Royals in his career. In 115 PA's, batters have a .223 AVG against with a low .629 OPS. No Royals starter has an OPS mark above .796. Liriano has also been tough vs LHB in his career with a career AVG against of .222 with a .603 OPS; a mark that is 123 basis points lower than his OPS vs RHB. The Royals biggest hitters are all left handed (Moustakas, Duda, Gordon) and their RHB have had 0 success vs Liriano (Soler .432 OPS; Escobar .312 OPS; Merrifield 0 for 3). Mix in some cold temperatures with the wind blowing in and you have yourself a tough day for Royals hitters. For KC, Hammel has never done well vs the Tigers posting a 6.09 ERA. While the Tigers roster is quite a bit different than past years, active hitters still have a .296 AVG against in 106 plate appearances. Most of those stats are heavily weighted towards Miguel Cabrera who has a .350 AVG against him with a .885 OPS.

    903 Cubs/Chatwood -135

    Chatwood is finally free from unfriendly Coors Field. While he does not have good BvP data vs the Reds, he has only faced them once outside of Coors Field back in 2013 when he held them to only 1 run on 4 hits in 4 IP. In fact, outside of Coors Field, Chatwood's career ERA is almost a full 2 runs lower. For the Reds, rookie Tyler Mahle will make his season debut as well. So far in his career, Mahle has not displayed much swing and miss stuff which could be troublesome vs a potent Cubs offense. In fact, during spring training Mahle posted 2 starts of 4+ IP where he didn't strike out a single batter.

    911 Rockies/Bettis -104

    The Padres are experimenting with using Bryan Mitchell as a SP. So far it has not worked out too well. During Spring Training, Mitchell made 2 starts of 2 IP each where he was fantastic, and 2 starts of 4 IP where he was dreadful. Both times, Mitchell wore down in the 3rd inning. With a potential short start possible and a Padres bullpen that is rather weak in the back end, the Rockies' potent offense could be looking at scoring a bunch of runs in the middle innings. For the Rockies, Bettis has solid stats when he pitches in PETCO park with a career 3.29 ERA. While current Padres have a .310 AVG against him in 63 PA, most of that damage is from Wil Myers (8 for 16, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR) who is currently nursing a back injury. Padres NOT named Wil Myers have a .238 AVG against Bettis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckyBadger View Post
    It should be noted, that a very successful Dr H also employs this betting strategy. I have bet baseball for many years and about 5 years ago began implementing this bet size strategy, and it has helped my bottom line. Mathematically sound too (and I play a lot of dogs, although that has changed over the past few years also).
    what I do is I bet whatever it takes to get my net I need for example if I am doing 250 a unit, I bet whatever it takes to win 250, isnt that basically the same thing? I hope it is!

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    YTD: 9-6, +2.15

    974 Giants/Blach -125

    Seattle SP Gonzales has an extremely tough time vs RHB. In his career, RHB have a .323 AVG with a .918 OPS, a mark that is 253 basis points higher than OPS marks for LHB. While they haven't been hitting much yet, the heart of the Giants batting order (McCutchen, Posey, and Longoria) are all RHB whose OPS marks are, on average, 115 basis points higher vs LHP. For the Giants, Ty Blach is on the mound coming off a masterful performance where he outdueled Clayton Kershaw. Blach has the same profile that Gonzales does: Superb vs LHB, struggles vs RHB. However, with Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino both hurt, the Mariners' best hitters are all lefties (Cano, Seager, Gordon) whose OPS marks vs LHP is 91 basis points lower than vs RHB.

    975 Sale/Red Sox -226

    The Marlins did pretty well vs the Cubs over the weekend, but Chris Sale vs the no-named lineup is a matchup that I'm sure none of them are looking forward to. Jose Urena will be on the mound for the Marlins and the same problems that he had with the Cubs will apply here with the Red Sox. Urena has a history of pitching around all the "tough guys" in an opposing team's lineup and once again, there are just too many "good" bats for him to work around all of them. With very little swing and miss stuff and a Red Sox lineup that doesnt K much, look for Urena's pitch count to rise early again in this one which will expose the Marlins bullpen. For reference, Jon Lester just closed -210 at Miami last week.

    Possible more to come ...

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    968 Astros/Verlander -205

    The Minute Maid Park roof is CLOSED today which benefits the pitching situation in tonight's game as there will be reduced humidity. Verlander has solid career stats vs current Orioles players. In 197 plate appearances, they have a .227 AVG against with a low .666 OPS against. Outside of Manny Machado (.888 OPS), no player has an OPS mark above .738. Non Machado players also are K'ing at a 33% clip vs Verlander. For the Orioles, Mike Wright Jr. will be on the mound despite a poor spring performance. He has never been successful as a SP with a career 6.32 ERA in the role and his performance in the 1 game he pitched vs the Astros last season doesn't bode well for him either. In 5 IP, he allowed 5 ER on 8 hits (3 of them for extra bases). Its worth noting that Correa was NOT in the lineup for that game either. As of now, Correa is listed questionable but assuming he is more doubtful than probable.

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