Betting Talk

2018 Baseball plays

12467

Comments

  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Darn. Poor math skills beginning to show. You're right, it should be 62-58 rather than what I had (62-59).

    However, neither of us are right on units I don't think. My -8.87 is wrong and your -8.77 is wrong. Should be -8.81.
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    baseball wrote: »
    Darn. Poor math skills beginning to show. You're right, it should be 62-58 rather than what I had (62-59).

    However, neither of us are right on units I don't think. My -8.87 is wrong and your -8.77 is wrong. Should be -8.81.

    You are correct I did not see the new price on Colo with pitching change. Thank You
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 65-60, -7.94u

    Phillies/Arrieta -141

    I generally do not trust guys in their 1st starts coming back from any sort of DL stint and Straily falls into that category today. This game is also a straight BvP play as Arrieta has FAR better numbers vs the Fish than Straily does vs the Phils. Across 49 Plate Appearances, current Marlins have a .174 AVG/.513 OPS against. Outside of Realmuto (1.125 OPS), no player has an OPS mark above .700 or an extra base hit against Arrieta. Meanwhile, current Phillies have a .354 AVG/1.022 OPS across 95 PA vs Straily. Hoskins, Franco, Herrera, and Nick Williams all have OPS marks above .800. Hoskins also has 4 extra base hits (3 HRs) and 7 RBIs in his 10 PA.

    Toronto/Sanchez +109

    Lance Lynn is still struggling with his command and now has to deal with a sore ankle after he rolled it during the 4th inning of his start against the Yankees. Current Blue Jays also have solid numbers against him with a .357 AVG/1.232 OPS across 51 plate appearances including 4 HRs. For the Blue Jays, Aaron Sanchez looks to continue his stretch of 4 straight Quality Starts. He'll be facing a Twins lineup that has not done well against him in the past and could potentially be without Miguel Sano for the 3rd straight game due to a nagging hamstring injury. Current Twins have a .209 AVG/.599 OPS against him across 44 PA.

    Astros/Morton -146

    This is purely a Sonny Gray fade here. Gray hasn't been pitching well at home or on the road. His control has been way off (16 BB in 21 IP), he's been inefficient (AVG 22 pitches/IP last 3 starts), and he's not missing bats (6.1% SwStr). Today he has to face a red hot Astros lineup that has scored 5 runs or more in 9 of its last 11 games. For the Astros, Charlie Morton is looking to bounce back from a frustrating BB filled start where he was getting squeezed quite frequently leading to 5 BB on the day. Surprisingly, there isn't a lot of BvP data between Morton and the Yankees. The only player who has significant ABs against is Giancarlo Stanton (9 for 18) back from his days with the Pirates where he was a much worse SP.

    Reds/Finnegan +108

    I don't particularly like Finnegan, but the Brewers have also been among one of the worst teams vs LHP so far this season with a .612 OPS against. He's also done relatively well against the Brewers in the past with a .229 AVG/.754 OPS against across 40 PA. For the Brew Crew, Jhoulys Chacin will be facing a Reds offense that has continued to stay hot ever since Schebler and Suarez returned from the DL. Since their activation, the Reds have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of the 9 games they've played winning 4 of them.
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Units should be -7.92
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    bluejake wrote: »
    Units should be -7.92

    I hate life.

    YTD: 65-60, -7.92u (fixed)

    Adding ...

    Rays/Faria -130

    D-Backs/Greinke -140
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    only hate life if your clv looks the same, what does your CLV look like?
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 69-62, -6.24u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Indians/Clevinger -191

    The Indians offense has been heating up over the last week having scored 4 runs or more in each of the last 6 games. Today they face Doug Fister who, while having pitched decent enough to keep his team in the game, hasn't been pitching deep into games due to early season stamina issues, injury, and pitch inefficiency. This is of particular note today after Texas used 5 arms in yesterday's blown game. Current Indians batters also have solid BvP numbers vs Fister with a .298 AVG/.801 OPS across 208 Plate Appearances. Of particular note, the Indians lineup has 6 players with OPS marks above .750. As long as the offense can maintain their momentum, the Indians should win this game as Clevinger has held opponents to 4 runs or fewer in 86% of his career starts (31 of 36).

    Nationals/Scherzer -228

    Scherzer has handled the primary threats in the Pirates lineup well in his career. Across 26 Plate Appearances, the trio of Marte, Polanco, and Bell are a combined 5 for 26 (.192 AVG) against him with 12 K's (46% K rate). Nationals are also experimenting with the idea of using Harper as the leadoff hitter in order to get better bats behind him in an effort to get him more favorable pitches to hit.

    Braves/Soroka +167

    Newcomb was the scheduled starter today but he has been pushed back to tomorrow and top prospect Mike Soroka will be starting in his place. In situations like this, the Mets have a history of severely under performing against new players called up to make starts. In addition, while I generally wouldn't bet against Syndergaard, the Braves offense actually has done quite well against him. Current Braves hitters have a .377 AVG/.988 OPS against him across 57 plate appearances including 3 SB which has been a pain point for Syndergaard in the past.

    Dodgers/Kershaw -175

    I know Kershaw has been struggling but it's hard to ignore the BvP stats he has against the D-backs. Current D-backs hitters have a .187 AVG/.568 OPS against him across 194 PA in his career. In fact, only 1 hitter, David Peralta, has an OPS mark above .750, and he could very well be out of the lineup today after being hit on the hand by a pitch yesterday. For the D-backs, Matt Koch will be on the mound primed for a rough regression. He gave up a lot of hard contact his last time out and he's been running an extremely favorable .194 BABIP so far in his starts.

    Rays/Archer -151

    The Tigers struggling offense will be playing another game without their best hitter Miguel Cabrera. This bodes well for Archer who has handled the other 2 primary threats in the lineup, Castellanos and Martinez, quite well holding them to a combined 7 for 34 (.205 AVG) with 13 K (38% K rate).
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 71-65, -8.74u

    Indians/Kluber -295

    Straight BvP play with Kluber at home. Rangers have a .225 AVG/.754 OPS with a 30% K rate vs Kluber in a small 43 Plate Appearances sample size. Current Indians have a .295 AVG/.840 OPS with a 19% K rate (as well as a 13% BB rate) across 112 PA vs Matt Moore.

    Nationals/Strasburg -195

    Another straight BvP play as the Nationals start to show signs that they are waking up from their early season slumber as Murphy and Rendon get closer to rejoining the team. Today, the BvP data is in heavy favor of the Nationals as well as current Pirates have a .183 AVG/.600 OPS vs Strasburg as opposed to current Nationals posting a .295 AVG/.928 OPS vs Nova.

    D-Backs/Godley -105

    As well as Ryu has pitched lately, he has struggled mightily vs the Diamondbacks in the past. Across 80 PA, current D-backs players have a .382 AVG/1.122 OPS against him with more BB than K (12 to 11). To make matters worse, AJ Pollock is red hot right now and already owns a .933 OPS against Ryu. Meanwhile the struggling Dodgers have a much less impressive .243 AVG/.787 OPS in 88 PA against Godley.....a mark that is even worse when you factor in that injured players Justin Turner (1.067 OPS) and Yasiel Puig (1.051 OPS) make up most of that OPS number.

    Mets/deGrom -158

    The command struggles continue for Sean Newcomb as he has now issued 3 BB or more in 4 of his 5 starts this season which has led to some spurts of pitch inefficiency issues so far this season. Today he goes up against a Mets team that, while had struggled vs LHP, is one of the more patient teams in baseball ranking 9th overall in BB taken. They also have their ace Jacob deGrom on the mound who has been in excellent form the last 3 starts with 30 K in 21 IP, a 70% Strike Thrown Rate, a 18% Swinging Strike Rate, and a paltry .200 AVG against on a .318 BABIP over that time frame (including a start against the Braves.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I mean most of the stuff you are discussing dont you think that information is in the line already?

    I am not trying to be cute, I really am trying to understand the picks
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding: Colorado/Anderson +195
  • buckeyesbuckeyes Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I mean most of the stuff you are discussing dont you think that information is in the line already?

    I am not trying to be cute, I really am trying to understand the picks

    Why would anyone ever discuss something that represents a true edge?
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I mean most of the stuff you are discussing dont you think that information is in the line already?

    I am not trying to be cute, I really am trying to understand the picks

    I don't disagree that BvP, for example, is mostly already built into the line. And I'm sure plenty of the other stuff that I've referenced is as well. But I think if you read previous writeups you'll find things (some statistical, some subjective) that perhaps aren't. And since I don't have access to a world-class model, a lot of this is feel, instinct, analysis, etc.

    Just trying to post plays, keep a daily record, and see how it goes.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    buckeyes wrote: »
    Why would anyone ever discuss something that represents a true edge?

    I did not ask the writer to give me a copy of his model or ask him specifically his model criteria, I asked dont you think those things are in the line?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    the posts are very thorough but what I am saying basically is something like this maybe I am overly simplifying it but
    I like the cavs tonight because Lebron is playing and what I think is that is pretty much in the line already. now if you know lebron is sick and the line does not know yet I think that would then be a good bet, does that make sense?
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    the posts are very thorough but what I am saying basically is something like this maybe I am overly simplifying it but
    I like the cavs tonight because Lebron is playing and what I think is that is pretty much in the line already. now if you know lebron is sick and the line does not know yet I think that would then be a good bet, does that make sense?

    Yes.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    did you track your line value?
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    did you track your line value?

    Still no, but rest assured if I go to the trouble of calc'ing it, I will for sure post it here.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 74-67, -7.42
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Mets/Vargas -115

    While i don't trust Vargas at all just quite yet, its hard to ignore what happened to Julio Teheran his last time out as he had to be removed from the game do to a tight trapezius. Before his removal, his velocity had dropped all the way down to 87mph which is a drop of 5mph from prior year. It's worth mentioning that he was already down 2 mph on the year sitting around 90mph before the injury. Today he faces a Mets team that has generally been better against RHP and is stacking LHB today's from 1 - 6 in the lineup (sans Cespedes).

    Nationals/Hellickson -138

    The Nationals lineup is now red hot with Harper leading off. Hellickson also has solid BvP stats against the Pirates holding them to a .175 AVG/.495 OPS. Also, Trevor Williams is one of the biggest frauds in baseball right now as his FIP continues to be almost 1.5 runs greater than his ERA indicating upcoming regression.

    D-Backs/Corbin -133

    Continued fading of the Dodgers anytime they face a LHP and today they face one of the best in Patrick Corbin.

    Oakland/Manaea -108

    Wade LeBlanc hasnt been a full time SP in the MLB since he left San Diego in 2011 and this is his first start since 2016. The Oakland bats who rank 5th in the MLB in slugging and with LeBlanc's fly ball oriented batted ball profile (37% GB, 41% FB, 22% LD), the A's should have plenty of run scoring opportunities. On the flip side, Manaea has solid BvP stats vs the Mariners in his career holding them to a .245 AVG/.722 OPS. The key note for me is that, the 3 primary lefty bats (Gordon, Cano, Seager) are a combined 5 for 42 (.119 AVG) against Manaea. As long as he can avoid damage from Nelson Cruz, Manaea should have the upper hand most of the night.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 75-70, -9.98u

    Yankees/Sabathia -185

    Continued Josh Tomlin fade. With winds blowing out to LF at over 15 mph + a high powered Yankees offense + a SP with a batted ball profile that leans more towards balls in the air (39% GB, 39% FB, 22% LD) = HR happy conditions.

    Nationals/Gonzalez -127

    I'm staying on the red hot Nationals bandwagon who have won 5 games straight and open a home series against the Phillies who have lost 6 of their last 9 games and are 6-11 overall against divisional opponents. Today Gio Gonzalez faces a group of Phillies who have not done well against him with a .161 AVG/.466 OPS across 107 Plate Appearances with a 24.3% K rate. No Phillies player has an OPS mark above .750 or even .650 for that matter.

    Twins/Berrios -162

    Berrios has had a rough go of it lately but has a strong opportunity to bounceback tonight against the banged up White Sox. With Castillo, Moncada, and Avi Garcia all potentially out, the White Sox only have 2 players left with respectable OPS marks, Jose Abreu (.801) and Matt Davidson (.981). In Davidson's case, he's posting a 1.870 OPS in games vs the Royals and a .631 OPS vs everyone else. Lastly, with Garcia out, no current White Sox player has an OPS mark above .750 against Berrios across 90 Plate Appearances and that he's already dominated them once this season (7.0 IP, 11 K's).

    Giants/Stratton +133

    Winners of 8 of their last 11 games, the Giants have been sneakily good lately thanks to their veteran heavy offense finally waking up. Over the last 7 days, the Giants have the 5th best offense in baseball in terms of runs scored and have posted 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 11 games. Today they face Mike Foltynewicz who they have hit very well against in the past. Across 63 PA, current Giants have a .377 AVG/1.249 OPS against him on the strength of 8 HRs by the trio of Posey, Crawford, and Belt.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding ...

    Dodgers/Padres Over 8 runs (+100)
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 79-71, -6.65u

    Dodgers/Padres Over 8.5 -110

    Sticking to my guns in regards to park factors in Monterrey, Mexico. Today the run total should be helped out with both teams using SPs that have been giving up a lot of hard contact (Kenta Maeda | 32% Line Drive Rate, Bryan Mitchell 27% LD). Mitchell also has not been missing bats either as he continues to run one of the league's worst Swinging Strike rates at 4.8%.

    Indians/Bauer +102

    Continuing my Sonny Gray at home fade where he has continued to struggle with his command and hard hit contact ratios. While he seemed to take a step forward his last time out in Houston, the peripheral stats were still unhappy with the hard contact he allowed. Over the last 3 games he's been running an extremely dangerous 35% LD Rate. Today he faces an extremely hot Indians offense that has scored at least 4 Runs in each of its last 11 games and at least 6 runs in its last 6 games.

    Nationals/Roark -152

    Continuing to ride the hot streak as the Phillies continue to struggle vs their NL East counterparts [6-12 record]. Today the Nationals get to face Vincent Velasquez who has been struggling with the HR ball in his recent start [5 HR in the last 3 games]. Nationals hitters also have an excellent history against him having a .370 AVG/1.162 OPS with 4 HRs in 54 Plate Appearances.

    Rockies/Bettis +114

    The Rockies are one of the best teams in the MLB vs LHP ranking 6th overall in terms of OPS. They also have incredible BvP stats vs Matz with a .442 AVG/1.199 OPS against him across 44 Plate Appearances in his career. Matz also had his last start skipped due to a back injury and he was still feeling "tender" as of Tuesday so its incredibly hard to consider him a favorite today.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 81-73, -7.03u

    Rockies/Freeland +171

    The Mets offense has just been so terrible these last few days and it's even worse against LHP. Right now the Mets rank dead last in OPS vs LHP (.587) by a wide margin as the next closest team is the Brew Crew at .630 OPS. The Rockies are also another team (much like the Braves last time) that actually have decent BvP stats vs Syndergaard, albeit in a small sample size. In the 2 games Thor has pitched against them (both in Citi Field), the Rockies have walked away with 3 runs each time. The current crop of Rockies are the ones who did all the damage with a .296 AVG/.906 OPS against him including 3 SB.

    Astros/Verlander -187

    Matt Koch has been quite lucky so far this season. While he does have a nice looking 2.37 ERA, the peripheral stats paint a very different picture. Opposing batters BABIP is at an unsustainable low .213, his swinging strike rate is a paltry 6.8%, and his Line Drive batted ball rate sits at 27% which is above the MLB average. His luck could very well run out against this Astros offense

    Royals/Junis -145

    The Tigers offense has been in rough shape with Miguel Cabrera banged up and now on the Disabled List. Over the last 11 games they have scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of them. The BvP stat comparison are heavily in favor of the Royals here as current Tigers only have a .159 AVG/.429 OPS vs Junis across 68 appearances vs current Royals posting a .306 AVG/.844 OPS across 105 PA vs Boyd.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding:

    KC/Det under 8.5 (-101)
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 84-74, -5.19u

    Astros/Keuchel -132

    The passing of Stephen Piscotty's mom to ALS is of significance as it's something that is going to reverberate throughout the A's clubhouse tonight. They have to face sinkerballer Dallas Keuchel who was pitching a really good game against them last time out before the wheels fell off in the 7th inning when Hinch stuck with him for too long.

    Nationals/Strasburg -165

    Tyson Ross has actually pitched quite well as of late but it is hard to ignore how poorly his team has hit against RHP this season as they rank 3rd from the bottom in terms of OPS. They haven't had much success vs Strasburg either as current Padres have a .206 AVG/.534 OPS with only 2 Extra base hits across 71 Plate Appearances.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding:

    Marlins/Garcia +210
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 86-75, -4.19u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding:

    Cardinals/Martinez -165
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Apologies for lack of writeups today, the rest:

    Braves/Rays over 7.5 (+105)

    Phillies/Nola -185

    Nats/Hellickson -117

    Indians/Kluber -171

    Pirates/Nova -135
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