1. #31
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    good luck I agree!!!!

  2. #32
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    I bet big favorites everyday! I only care about value in the line, I do not care at all about the fave dog blah blah. I am a firm believer in beating the line!

  3. #33
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    I told you guys Severino was a good bet LOL

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    YTD: 15-10, +4.2u

    953 Marlins/Smith +135

    I'm siding with the Marlins here because of Caleb Smith, who had an encouraging first start vs the Cubs. In 5.1 IP, Smith struck out eight Cubs batters and only allowed 4 hits while generating 15 swings and misses across 100 pitches (15%). The MLB average SwStr Rate is 9.5%. The mark is not a fluke either. During his stay with the Yankees last year, Smith generated a SwStr rate of 13% as well. As a lefty, Smith is also tougher vs RHB than he is vs LHB due to his above average changeup. RHB's OPS marks over the last 2 seasons vs Smith were a paltry .669 and .654. Naturally, most of the Phillies lineup is right handed. On the other side, Nick Pivetta is on the mound coming off an uninspiring performance vs the Braves. He's coming off of a season where he posted a 6.02 ERA in 26 starts and a 2018 spring where he allowed 22 baserunners in 18 IP. Also, it goes without saying that Gabe Kapler's continued quick hooks (Pulled Pivetta at 74 pitches last time) and heavy bullpen usage gives the Marlins an advantage in the later innings.

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    951 Mets/deGrom +143

    deGrom has faced the Nationals more then any other team in his career and he shows up big each time. In 12 starts against them, he has a 2.77 ERA with a 11.3 K/9 rate. Last season he faced them 5 times and K'd 10 + batters on 4 occasions. Current Nationals batters have a .208 avg against him with a paltry .618 OPS. Strasburg also has success vs the Mets. In 16 starts, he has a 2.64 ERA with an 11.2 K/9 rate. However, there has been quite a bit of turnover in the Mets lineup from seasons past, and current Mets actually have a solid .333 AVG against with an .854 OPS. This is due to the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier, both whom have OPS marks over .971 to go along with Cespedes (1.163 OPS), Bruce (.909 OPS), and Cabrera (.840 OPS). The key to this game: While both teams have a handful of batters with solid numbers vs. the SPs, it's actually the Mets lineup that is constructed better to take advantage. My image won't embed, so take my word, but the mets have their high OPS guys all together hitting back to back whereas the Nationals success is more fragmented throughout the lineup. This gives the Mets a greater chance of generating a potentially game winning rally at any point in the game.

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    964 Red Sox/Price -245

    David Price gets to face this weak Rays lineup for the second time. Last time he shut them out across 7 IP while only allowing 4 hits on 76 pitches, 72% of which were strikes. On the mound for the Rays is Yonny Chirinos who is pitching on 3 days rest after going 4 IP against these same Red Sox last time out. Chirinos did pitch well in that game but he was quite wild. The Rays bullpen is also taxed after two beatdowns by the Yankees caused them to burn both Andriese and Pruitt in multi inning appearances. Yarbrough and Kittredge are the primaries left in this long man/piggyback #4 and #5 SP rotation, and the Red Sox got plenty of baserunners against both in the opening series. With the potential for an inefficient start, no quality back up, a weather worn TB team, and a Red Sox team coming off a scheduled off day, this is worth a bet.

    One more likely to come later ...

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    957 Reds/Bailey +125

    After getting stymied by Nationals pitching the 1st series of the season and then failing to capitalize on their 10 RISP opportunities vs Chatwood, the Reds finally get what seems to be the easiest SP matchup so far this season in LHP Steven Brault. There is only 18 PA worth of BvP data but in that small sample size, Votto, Suarez, and Gennett are 5 for 10 with 2 doubles. On the other side Bailey is coming off an excellent 6 IP, 1 ER start vs the Nats. In 110 PAs, current Pirates have a .267 AVG against him with a .773 OPS. The key here is that most of this damage came from David Freese (.995) who is no longer a starter this late in his career and Starling Marte (.970 OPS) who also has a 33% k rate against him and was 0 for 3 last season after returning from his steroid suspension.

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  12. #38
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    you dont track CLV?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    you dont track CLV?
    I won't be tracking it in this thread. Plays, brief writeup, and daily record is all I'll have.

    Will try to make a periodic effort to provide a CLV update but no promises.

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    YTD: 17-12, +4.63u

    918 Astros/McCullers -275

    Essentially 0 BvP data on either side. The only stats available is that Hosmer, Headley, and AJ Ellis are a combined 2 for 19 (.105 AVG) against Lance McCullers. He is also coming off a 5+ IP performance where he struck out 10 batters against the Texas Rangers; an offense that is far superior to the Padres, especially with Wil Myers on the DL. For the Padres, Luis Perdomo is on the mound. In his 2 year career thus far, he has shown very little swing and miss stuff which will be a major problem against this high powered Astros offense. Against "finesse" style SPs (those who generate K's in the lower 1/3rd of the MLB), McCann, Altuve, Correa, and Reddick all have OPS marks above .800. Lastly, due to the threat of rain in the Houston area, the roof at Minute Maid Park will likely be closed which will improve the pitching situation.

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    905 Cubs/Hendricks -135

    Kyle Hendricks has faced these Brewers quite a bit in his career and has good BvP stats against them. In 146 Plate Appearances, current Brewers have a combined .206 AVG against him with a .586 OPS. In fact, outside of Travis Shaw (4 for 12 w/ 2 HR), no Brewers players has an OPS mark above .708 against Hendricks. One could argue that the additions of Yelich and Cain should improve these numbers, but both of them have seen Hendricks as well and are a combined 2 for 16 with 0 XBH. For the Brewers, Brandon Woodruff will be moving from the bullpen to the rotation to make his 1st start of the season. While his stuff is decent, Woodruff has had trouble missing bats so far in his young MLB career. There are also other factors that should be taken into account for today's game. A) Woodruff is operating on 3 days rest after making a relief appearance on Monday. B) Woodruff is only 1 week removed from getting drilled in the hip TWICE by back to back comebackers. C) After losing Corey Knebel to a nasty looking injury last night, the entire Brewers bullpen needs to be re-shuffled. With Barnes and Jennings also likely to be unavailable today it could be a few days before they re-settle.

    Unlikely to be any additional adds. Good luck.

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    YTD: 17-14, +0.53

    952 Nationals/Gonzalez -160

    Steven Matz continues to be the biggest question mark in the Mets rotation after getting knocked out after only 4 IP against the Cardinals last time out. While he has good BvP stats vs the Nationals in the past (.185 AVG, .524 OPS in 69 PA) he still has not shown full acclimation to his transposed ulnar nerve. (FWIW, Jacob deGrom dealt with the same thing last season and was very up and down before finally settling in during the month of May). The real key to this game comes down to Gio Gonzalez. He has a long history of facing the Mets and usually dominates them. In 184 PA, current Mets have a .226 AVG with a .669 OPS. The only Met with even a modicum of success against him is Yeonis Cespedes (1.677 OPS) as everyone else is below a .628 OPS. In fact over his last 11 starts, Gonzalez has held the Mets to 2 runs or less on 10 occasions. That's some solid consistency.

    972 Twins/Berrios -158

    Not much BvP data on either side as Berrios and Leake have only about 20 plate appearances against batters on both sides. I am going to side with Berrios here though based on what we saw in his complete game shutout last week against the Baltimore Orioles. In that game according to Pitch F/X, Berrios' fastball cracked 6" of horizontal movement. That mark is significant for him as its the 9th time he has done it in his career. In those 9 games, Berrios has a 7-1 record with a 8.0 K/9 rate. Within those games includes (5) 7.0+ IP performances and (2) 10+ K performances. While it is just 1 start, it is part of a continuing trend from spring training where scouts raved about additional "life" on his fastball. Berrios could be poised for an incredibly good season.

    960 Phillies/Velasquez -149

    The Marlins lost Garrett Cooper to injury, Lewis Brinson and Justin Bour are struggling, and Realmuto, Prado, and Riddle are on the DL. This is a team that has no offense right now going up against a guy who probably has as good of "stuff" as most elite pitchers in baseball in Vincent Velasquez. When Velasquez is locating his fastball, he is a guy who racks up a large number of swings and misses/strikeouts. On the Marlins side Dillon Peters makes his 2nd start of the season. While he performed well against the Cubs last time out, BABIP luck was on his side. In that 6 IP performance, Peters only K'd 2 batters while only generating 5 total swing and misses and allowed eight line drives. Don't let the ERA fool you, the Cubs hit him hard last time out and he was lucky to walk away with 0 ER.

    980 Astros/Cole -260

    Despite last night's win, the fact still remains that this Padres offense is severely challenged with Wil Myers on the DL. Bryan Mitchell will be on the mound today for the Padres and as expected, this experiment of using him as a SP continues to not go well in the later innings. He got tagged for 5 ER last time out and was only able to last 5 IP against the Rockies. With Brad Hand likely unavailable after pitching back to back days, the Padres are going to need to dip into the weak back end of their bullpen for innings today.

    965 Orioles/Tillman +205

    I usually would not side with Tillman here, but the Yankees sustained a large number of injuries over the past few days and are using a lineup that resembles something they would use in spring training. Tyler Austin, Andjuar, Jace Peterson, Austin Romine, and Ronald Torreyes is probably not how the Yankees would envisioned following Judge/Stanton in the lineup. On top of this, Sonny Gray is on the mound for the Yankees and current Orioles have strong BvP stats against him. In 108 PA against, they have a .333 AVG with a .916 OPS. Gray has also struggled mightily in Yankee Stadium with a 2-3 record and career ERA of 5.30 there.

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  21. #43
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    the end to that Astro's game was crazy..never saw a game end like that.

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    YTD: 19-17, -1.65 u

    917 Tampa Bay/Kittredge +183

    Yesterday was a disaster for the Rays and yet they still walk into today's game fully capable of pulling off their "bullpening" start thanks to the omen's work by Andrew Pruitt. Kittredge has faced the Red Sox on 2 occasions already this season and has held them to a .200 AVG with a .750 OPS. On the other side will be lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who is coming off right knee ligament reconstruction surgery and did not get any Spring Training work. He will likely not go much further than 4 IP today considering he only made 1 minor league tune-up start before getting called up. There is a very high possibility that he is not ready for MLB work.

    920 Indians/Clevinger -210

    This Kansas City offense is struggling mightily right now having scored only 5 runs in their last 4 games and an MLB low 15 runs in their 6 games so far this season. They will be facing Mike Clevinger today who has had excellent success against them in a limited sample size. Across 37 PA, current Royals have a .152 AVG with a .486 OPS which includes 0 Royals players with an OPS mark over .722. For the Royals, Jason Hammel is on the mound and the Indians have had quite a bit of success against him. In 135 PA, current Indians have a .264 AVG with a .848 OPS. Most of the Indians lineup has destroyed Hammel in the past. Encarnacion, Kipnis, Zimmer, Davis, Perez and Lindor all have OPS marks above 1.000.

    904 Phillies/Arrieta -180

    The Marlins are bad. On top of a weak offense and lackluster SP, now they have to deal with an exhausted bullpen that had to cover 6 innings yesterday. Today Trevor Richards is on the mound for the Marlins as he continues to try and make the huge jump from AA to the MLB. The attempt did not work out too well last time out as he gave up 5 ER on 8 hits in only 4 IP. On the other side, Arrieta makes his debut for the Phillies and he should be able to go a full 100% today after the Phillies did the prudent thing and kept him in Extended Spring Training to continue to build up his pitch count.

    922 White Sox/Lopez -165

    Eno Sarris of Fangraphs did a live chat the other day and one of the topics brought up was the development of Reynaldo Lopez. Prior to this spring the prevailing thought was that Lopez's velocity was too low to offset his "merely average" spin rate on the fastball. However, he has added 3 mph to the pitch and scouts now rate it as a plus pitch that will be an effective weapon that when combined with his solid breaking pitches should generate solid K rates "I must admit....I was wrong about him" - Eno Sarris. Today he faces a Tigers offense that has been up and down and currently ranks 20th in runs scored. For the Tigers, they are using Mike Fiers who has not posted a quality start since July of last season. Even during spring training he was not very good, posting back to back 5 ER starts to end camp. The White Sox should be able to jump on him quickly.

    926 Rangers/Hamels +105

    Hamels' velocity is down, but his K rate is up. Why? Well you can attribute it to Hamels reinvention of himself. He is now switched from using his Fastball 50% of the time to using his cutter more often. This has resulted in a much lower hard hit contact rate, better outcomes vs RHP, and a lower batting average against. In 2017, Hamels allowed a .244 AVG against vs his FB and a .286 AVG vs his sinker....but his cutter generated a .188 AVG. It's a better pitch for this stage of his career and so far its producing positive results. Today he faces a Blue Jays team that has had mixed success against him. Current Blue Jays have a .274 AVG but with only a .727 OPS in 68 plate appearances. Outside of Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales (who only have 12 PA) no Blue Jays player has an OPS mark above .760.

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    YTD: 20-21, -6.1 u

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