1. #16
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    972 Angels/Richards -129

    Josh Tomlin is on the mound tonight for the Indians and has poor BvP career stats vs current Angels players in a limited sample size. In 70 PA, Angels players have a .338 AVG against with a .931 OPS. 11 of their 23 hits are of the extra base variety. Even more troubling for Tomlin is that the quartet of Trout, Cozart, Simmons, and Calhoun all have OPS marks over 1.000. For the Angels, Richards is on the mound and the Indians bats (sans Edwin Encarnacion) have not had much success against him in a limited sample. In 58 PA, Indians hitter have a .216 AVG with a .662 OPS. If Richards works around Encarnacion, those marks fall to a .154 AVG and a .463 OPS.

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    Last one ...

    965 White Sox/Gonzalez +170

    On paper, the pitching matchup is much more even than the current line would suggest. I'm going to side with the White Sox based on what they did to LHP Danny Duffy on Opening Day. The White Sox right handed heavy lineup knocked around Duffy for 5 ER on 7 hits including 3 HRs. This lineup was better vs LHP in 2017 (.773 OPS v LHP, .716 OPS vs RHP) and so far in 2018 it has continued to be better vs the lefties (1.076 OPS vs LHP, .845 OPS v RHP). Both Miguel Gonzalez and J.A. Happ have good BvP stats against the Blue Jays and White Sox, respectively. For Gonzalez, current Blue Jays bats are only hitting .179 against him with a .573 OPS. For Happ, current White Sox have a .183 AVG against with a .487 OPS. Seems worth a try at this price.

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    968 Astros/Verlander -205

    The Minute Maid Park roof is CLOSED today which benefits the pitching situation in tonight's game as there will be reduced humidity. Verlander has solid career stats vs current Orioles players. In 197 plate appearances, they have a .227 AVG against with a low .666 OPS against. Outside of Manny Machado (.888 OPS), no player has an OPS mark above .738. Non Machado players also are K'ing at a 33% clip vs Verlander. For the Orioles, Mike Wright Jr. will be on the mound despite a poor spring performance. He has never been successful as a SP with a career 6.32 ERA in the role and his performance in the 1 game he pitched vs the Astros last season doesn't bode well for him either. In 5 IP, he allowed 5 ER on 8 hits (3 of them for extra bases). Its worth noting that Correa was NOT in the lineup for that game either. As of now, Correa is listed questionable but assuming he is more doubtful than probable.
    luhnow was on local radio this morning and it sounded like Correa would go tonight, rest the day game tomorrow and then they are off on thursday i believe. thanks for the plays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hornsfan View Post
    luhnow was on local radio this morning and it sounded like Correa would go tonight, rest the day game tomorrow and then they are off on thursday i believe. thanks for the plays.
    Seems that someone else on Twitter heard the same thing. Thanks for the info.

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    YTD: 12-8, +2.9u

    912 Yankees/Severino - 240

    This could turn ugly fast for Blake Snell. All 4 of Snell's pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) naturally induce higher fly ball rates than the average MLB starting pitcher. Stick him in Yankee Stadium with the winds blowing out to left CF at 20+ mph, and you have yourself a recipe for a lot of HRs. The Yankees will have some protection from these high winds with Luis Severino as his two primary pitches (fastball & slider) generate more ground balls than the average SP. In a small 43 PA sample size, current Rays have only a .146 AVG against him with only 1 extra base hit.

    917 Indians/Kluber -140

    In 86 Plate Appearances vs Kluber, current Angels have only a .158 AVG against with a .626 OPS. The only player that has done damage to Kluber is Justin Upton (.312 AVG, 1.450 OPS, 5 hits all XBH). After him, no Angel has an OPS mark above .697. For the Angels, Tyler Skaggs is on the mound today and the Indians have a small history of success against him. In 57 PA, current Indians have a .404 AVG against with a 1.081 OPS. Kipnis, Alonso, Encarnacion and Ramirez all have OPS marks above .800 against him.

    924 Pirates/Nova -105

    Another high wind game where 1 pitcher is a fly ball guy and another is a ground ball guy. When Jake Odorizzi was not striking guys out in Tampa Bay, he was getting outs as an extreme fly ball pitcher. His career 45.0% Fly ball rate is 3rd highest among active SP in the MLB right now, only bested by Marco Estrada and Dylan Bundy. With winds blowing out to LF at 25+ mph, routine fly balls could easily turn into HRs. On the Pirates side, Ivan Nova can avoid the high winds with his history of being a weak contact/ground ball pitcher. His 30 % flyball rate is among the lowest 20% of SP. If you're looking for comparables, him and Luis Severino have the exact same batted ball profiles (20.5% LD, 49.5% GB, 30% FB%)

    909 Rockies/Gray -122

    Jon Gray has more starts vs the Padres than any other team so far in his young career. In 10 starts, he is 4-2 with a 2.40 ERA against them and a 12.3 K/9 rate. For the Padres, Clayton Richard is on the mound for them and the Rockies have had their way with him in his career. In 184 PA, current Rockies have a .329 AVG against with a .882 OPS. Parra, Desmond, LeMathieu, Arenado, Story, and Iannetta all have OPS marks above .800 against him. And while Blackmon's OPS is only .708, he has a .308 AVG against him.

    902 Braves/Foltynewicz +175

    If there was ever an optimal time to bet against Max Scherzer, today might be it. If Scherzer has any weakness it's the fact that he gives up a ton of HRs for a guy with his caliber of stuff. In terms of Fly ball% rates, after Odorizzi you have Matt Boyd, Rich Hill, and then Scherzer slots in at 6th highest among active SPs. With winds blowing out to CF at up to 20 mph this could be one of those days where Scherzer gives up a few runs via the long ball. Now this goes without saying but it's certainly a risky play considering current Nationals have good BvP stats vs Foltynewicz. In 88 PA, they have a .299 AVG with a .935 OPS with Zimmerman, Harper, Turner, and Rendon all over the .800 OPS mark. But will take a shot here.

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  10. #21
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    How about this over in Nats v Bravos?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lancer View Post
    How about this over in Nats v Bravos?
    Sorry, saw this too late. Seems(ed) logical.

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    You are laying some big numbers early, luck .About the yankees game, weather is bad suppose to rain on and off , rain delay now, might happen again...your laying a big number on a pitcher that might not make it to far in the game, and its not like the yanks pen ( 7.27) has been holding down the fort just yet. I wish you luck but personally much to early to lay that kind of change, on a lot of what ifs.

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    I got Severino at -180, 240 is too rich for my blood on that game!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    You are laying some big numbers early, luck .About the yankees game, weather is bad suppose to rain on and off , rain delay now, might happen again...your laying a big number on a pitcher that might not make it to far in the game, and its not like the yanks pen ( 7.27) has been holding down the fort just yet. I wish you luck but personally much to early to lay that kind of change, on a lot of what ifs.
    With respect, this is gambling.

    Everything is a "what if."

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    With respect, this is gambling.

    Everything is a "what if."
    what line do you have for that yankee game?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    what line do you have for that yankee game?
    Don't care to get into specifics, but higher than -240, before adjusting for weather/matchups.

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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball View Post
    Don't care to get into specifics, but higher than -240, before adjusting for weather/matchups.
    huh??? ok thanks dude was just curious, I wasnt asking for grandmas tortilla recipe just wanted to know if she used flour!

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    fact of the matter is he took it at 240, and your right its gambling

    good luck going forward

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    huh??? ok thanks dude was just curious, I wasnt asking for grandmas tortilla recipe just wanted to know if she used flour!
    Whoops. Hadn't seen your post in another thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan
    I know I sound like an asshole all the time but its just because I am hard headed and it has to be clear to me
    Since you're a self described asshole and hard head who needs everything clearly laid out for you, I have it roughly -270.

    It should be noted that during this weather delay, the line has continued to slowly climb up, so clearly the market does not subscribe to the "don't bet big favorites this early" theory that some are advocating for.

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