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    Default Conversation about when to wager

    For people that dont take the line into serious consideration and just like winners dont you think they would be best off betting at the last second before close to avoid the line movements getting them even worse than the margin does anyway?

    Example when i look at game now I say Jazz -6 if its -8 or -9 I dont bet them but I think some people think the Jazz are going to win and they bet it at not any number but pretty much any number in that case dont you think its best for those type of bettors to wait till the last second to avoid much margin movement and minimize risk of a big line swing.

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    This discussion simply pertains to the CLV-discussion, or better said:

    'This is what Closing Line Value is all about!'

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    For people that dont take the line into serious consideration and just like winners dont you think they would be best off betting at the last second before close to avoid the line movements getting them even worse than the margin does anyway?
    You're assuming here that it will be known which way the line is going to move. This is an unreasonable assumption to make. You bet a game at the line where you see value. Closing Line Value will appear when the market moves 'after' you have made your bet. This move can be in your favor but it can also move against you.

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    Example when i look at game now I say Jazz -6 if its -8 or -9 I dont bet them but I think some people think the Jazz are going to win and they bet it at not any number but pretty much any number in that case dont you think its best for those type of bettors to wait till the last second to avoid much margin movement and minimize risk of a big line swing.
    Repeating what I wrote above,
    What if this 'big line swing' is in your favor? You bet at -6 but the game closes at -9. If you had waited till close, you would be sitting 3 points worse than somebody else who bet early and got the -6.

    Concluding: This discussion is moot, A/ because it has already been discussed multiple times in previous CLV discussions and B/ because you're assuming a single-direction-line-movement, which is inaccurate because lines can move up and down, favorite-wise and underdog-wise.

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    I am not assuming line moves any way. I am saying that its better to lose book margin than risk losing even more, we all agree the sharpest spot is at close so as close to close a novice bettor technically gets the best line

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I am not assuming line moves any way.
    Then what does *risk of a big line swing* mean?

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I am saying that its better to lose book margin than risk losing even more,
    I have no clue what you mean here, please explain.

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    we all agree the sharpest spot is at close so as close to close a novice bettor technically gets the best line
    No we don't agree about the sharpest spot being at close. Your whole sentence doesn't make sense. The sharpest spot is the spot with the most positive line-value (can you agree on that?). Whether this means that you bet overnight openers or close to game-time totally depends on the way the market moves/ has moved. The same thing applies to novice bettors.

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    No. Obviously that person should not be betting at all. If they really like the Jazz, I would think they would bet it when they saw it. But the absolute worst time to bet is just before a game unless you really like a game and the sharps are pounding it and then you are probably wrong but at least got a good number.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    No. Obviously that person should not be betting at all. If they really like the Jazz, I would think they would bet it when they saw it. But the absolute worst time to bet is just before a game unless you really like a game and the sharps are pounding it and then you are probably wrong but at least got a good number.
    so I am clueless as we know, I want to bet the Jazz everyday where do you think I will get the best CLV, I have no idea where the line will go up or down, when would I bet to get the best clv, even as we know that clv will be negative if I play enough games?
    I say betting right at close is the best time, you pretty much are going to get the cost of margin only any other time your net margin is a crapshoot at best , or am I just completely lost???

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    so I am clueless as we know, I want to bet the Jazz everyday where do you think I will get the best CLV, I have no idea where the line will go up or down, when would I bet to get the best clv, even as we know that clv will be negative if I play enough games?
    I say betting right at close is the best time, you pretty much are going to get the cost of margin only any other time your net margin is a crapshoot at best , or am I just completely lost???
    Why would you want to bet the Jazz everyday?
    Does -opponent, -line, -fatigue, -injuries, not factor into your equation?

    Nobody has the answer to your question, because nobody knows what the lines and many other variables are going to be 3 days ahead of the actual games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    so I am clueless as we know, I want to bet the Jazz everyday where do you think I will get the best CLV, I have no idea where the line will go up or down, when would I bet to get the best clv, even as we know that clv will be negative if I play enough games?
    I say betting right at close is the best time, you pretty much are going to get the cost of margin only any other time your net margin is a crapshoot at best , or am I just completely lost???
    If you like the Jazz, the best time to bet it is going to be right when the number comes out assuming you are right most of the time. That is when the line is most inefficient. Betting late is only likely to cost you points assuming the Jazz are the right side more times than not.

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    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?
    Lines are most inefficient early. The best time for any sharp to bet is early assuming they can get what they want down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    If you like the Jazz, the best time to bet it is going to be right when the number comes out assuming you are right most of the time. That is when the line is most inefficient. Betting late is only likely to cost you points assuming the Jazz are the right side more times than not.
    This is utter bullshit, because you simply don't know how the line is going to open!!

    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 over and books open -5, what do you do?
    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 but the books open -8, what do you do???.......

    YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT LINE THE BOOKS ARE GOING TO OPEN AT!!!! so how can you say that the opener is the softest/ ineffecient?

    The market decides that, not you and not the opener.

    (talking specificaly about the Jazz example above here)

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    Best comparison to this situation is the Spurs, a team that regularly beat the line. Do you want to wait to bet the Spurs after the line moves 1 point or before?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi One View Post
    This is utter bullshit, because you simply don't know how the line is going to open!!

    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 over and books open -5, what do you do?
    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 but the books open -8, what do you do???.......

    YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT LINE THE BOOKS ARE GOING TO OPEN AT!!!! so how can you say that the opener is the softest/ ineffecient?

    The market decides that, not you and not the opener.

    (talking specificaly about the Jazz example above here)
    If the Jazz are the right side, the line moves in favor of the Jazz. Therefore, you bet the jazz early. If the line moves the other way, you bet more on the Jazz.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?
    Besides that betting a team just because *you want to bet a team* is plain ridiculous,

    EVERYTHING depends on the line...... does it have value according to your numbers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    If the Jazz are the right side, the line moves in favor of the Jazz. Therefore, you bet the jazz early. If the line moves the other way, you bet more on the Jazz.
    Sure,
    pretty good strategy....betting against the market......

    $$$$$$

    (ever heard of reverse-steam-chasers getting banned by books?)

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