Betting Talk

Conversation about when to wager

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited March 2018 in Sports Betting
For people that dont take the line into serious consideration and just like winners dont you think they would be best off betting at the last second before close to avoid the line movements getting them even worse than the margin does anyway?

Example when i look at game now I say Jazz -6 if its -8 or -9 I dont bet them but I think some people think the Jazz are going to win and they bet it at not any number but pretty much any number in that case dont you think its best for those type of bettors to wait till the last second to avoid much margin movement and minimize risk of a big line swing.
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Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    This discussion simply pertains to the CLV-discussion, or better said:

    'This is what Closing Line Value is all about!'
    danshan wrote: »
    For people that dont take the line into serious consideration and just like winners dont you think they would be best off betting at the last second before close to avoid the line movements getting them even worse than the margin does anyway?

    You're assuming here that it will be known which way the line is going to move. This is an unreasonable assumption to make. You bet a game at the line where you see value. Closing Line Value will appear when the market moves 'after' you have made your bet. This move can be in your favor but it can also move against you.
    danshan wrote: »
    Example when i look at game now I say Jazz -6 if its -8 or -9 I dont bet them but I think some people think the Jazz are going to win and they bet it at not any number but pretty much any number in that case dont you think its best for those type of bettors to wait till the last second to avoid much margin movement and minimize risk of a big line swing.

    Repeating what I wrote above,
    What if this 'big line swing' is in your favor? You bet at -6 but the game closes at -9. If you had waited till close, you would be sitting 3 points worse than somebody else who bet early and got the -6.

    Concluding: This discussion is moot, A/ because it has already been discussed multiple times in previous CLV discussions and B/ because you're assuming a single-direction-line-movement, which is inaccurate because lines can move up and down, favorite-wise and underdog-wise.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I am not assuming line moves any way. I am saying that its better to lose book margin than risk losing even more, we all agree the sharpest spot is at close so as close to close a novice bettor technically gets the best line
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I am not assuming line moves any way.

    Then what does *risk of a big line swing* mean?
    danshan wrote: »
    I am saying that its better to lose book margin than risk losing even more,

    I have no clue what you mean here, please explain.
    danshan wrote: »
    we all agree the sharpest spot is at close so as close to close a novice bettor technically gets the best line

    No we don't agree about the sharpest spot being at close. Your whole sentence doesn't make sense. The sharpest spot is the spot with the most positive line-value (can you agree on that?). Whether this means that you bet overnight openers or close to game-time totally depends on the way the market moves/ has moved. The same thing applies to novice bettors.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    No. Obviously that person should not be betting at all. If they really like the Jazz, I would think they would bet it when they saw it. But the absolute worst time to bet is just before a game unless you really like a game and the sharps are pounding it and then you are probably wrong but at least got a good number.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    No. Obviously that person should not be betting at all. If they really like the Jazz, I would think they would bet it when they saw it. But the absolute worst time to bet is just before a game unless you really like a game and the sharps are pounding it and then you are probably wrong but at least got a good number.

    so I am clueless as we know, I want to bet the Jazz everyday where do you think I will get the best CLV, I have no idea where the line will go up or down, when would I bet to get the best clv, even as we know that clv will be negative if I play enough games?
    I say betting right at close is the best time, you pretty much are going to get the cost of margin only any other time your net margin is a crapshoot at best , or am I just completely lost???
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so I am clueless as we know, I want to bet the Jazz everyday where do you think I will get the best CLV, I have no idea where the line will go up or down, when would I bet to get the best clv, even as we know that clv will be negative if I play enough games?
    I say betting right at close is the best time, you pretty much are going to get the cost of margin only any other time your net margin is a crapshoot at best , or am I just completely lost???

    Why would you want to bet the Jazz everyday?
    Does -opponent, -line, -fatigue, -injuries, not factor into your equation?

    Nobody has the answer to your question, because nobody knows what the lines and many other variables are going to be 3 days ahead of the actual games.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so I am clueless as we know, I want to bet the Jazz everyday where do you think I will get the best CLV, I have no idea where the line will go up or down, when would I bet to get the best clv, even as we know that clv will be negative if I play enough games?
    I say betting right at close is the best time, you pretty much are going to get the cost of margin only any other time your net margin is a crapshoot at best , or am I just completely lost???

    If you like the Jazz, the best time to bet it is going to be right when the number comes out assuming you are right most of the time. That is when the line is most inefficient. Betting late is only likely to cost you points assuming the Jazz are the right side more times than not.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?

    Lines are most inefficient early. The best time for any sharp to bet is early assuming they can get what they want down.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    If you like the Jazz, the best time to bet it is going to be right when the number comes out assuming you are right most of the time. That is when the line is most inefficient. Betting late is only likely to cost you points assuming the Jazz are the right side more times than not.

    This is utter bullshit, because you simply don't know how the line is going to open!!

    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 over and books open -5, what do you do?
    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 but the books open -8, what do you do???.......

    YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT LINE THE BOOKS ARE GOING TO OPEN AT!!!! so how can you say that the opener is the softest/ ineffecient?

    The market decides that, not you and not the opener.

    (talking specificaly about the Jazz example above here)
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Best comparison to this situation is the Spurs, a team that regularly beat the line. Do you want to wait to bet the Spurs after the line moves 1 point or before?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    This is utter bullshit, because you simply don't know how the line is going to open!!

    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 over and books open -5, what do you do?
    Your Powerranking says Jazz -6 but the books open -8, what do you do???.......

    YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT LINE THE BOOKS ARE GOING TO OPEN AT!!!! so how can you say that the opener is the softest/ ineffecient?

    The market decides that, not you and not the opener.

    (talking specificaly about the Jazz example above here)

    If the Jazz are the right side, the line moves in favor of the Jazz. Therefore, you bet the jazz early. If the line moves the other way, you bet more on the Jazz.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?

    Besides that betting a team just because *you want to bet a team* is plain ridiculous,

    EVERYTHING depends on the line...... does it have value according to your numbers?
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    If the Jazz are the right side, the line moves in favor of the Jazz. Therefore, you bet the jazz early. If the line moves the other way, you bet more on the Jazz.

    Sure,
    pretty good strategy....betting against the market......

    $$$$$$ :bye:

    (ever heard of reverse-steam-chasers getting banned by books?)
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Sure,
    pretty good strategy....betting against the market......

    $$$$$$ :bye:

    Not if the Jazz are the right side. Always bet against the market when you have the right side. Bet Jazz and keep betting the Jazz.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Sure,
    pretty good strategy....betting against the market......

    $$$$$$ :bye:

    (ever heard of reverse-steam-chasers getting banned by books?)

    Yes, when they are betting a team like the Jazz that cannot lose.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Besides that betting a team just because *you want to bet a team* is plain ridiculous,

    EVERYTHING depends on the line...... does it have value according to your numbers?

    before I came here I didnt even know what according to my numbers meant. I said oh wow patriots only favored by 6 take it all day long should be 15 and it usually closed close 6 because I would bet last minute with my popcorn and cold beer and remote waiting for it to come on, there was no according to my numbers at that time and millions zillions do that and that is why I am saying BET it at close to get the minimum line movement and minimize potential risk of big line moves.

    Dont you agree with that for that type bettor?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    before I came here I didnt even know what according to my numbers meant. I said oh wow patriots only favored by 6 take it all day long should be 15 and it usually closed close 6 because I would bet last minute with my popcorn and cold beer and remote waiting for it to come on, there was no according to my numbers at that time and millions zillions do that and that is why I am saying BET it at close to get the minimum line movement and minimize potential risk of big line moves.

    Dont you agree with that for that type bettor?

    You are going to be right half the time on the line move and wrong half the time. Betting at the close does you no good.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    could be should be 50/50 more less but I am saying to minimize risk from possible big line moves this would be the best strategy.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    could be should be 50/50 more less but I am saying to minimize risk from possible big line moves this would be the best strategy.

    You are also eliminating big line moves in your favor.

    A person that does not have an edge has no point when anything is favorable to them.

    A person with an edge will get the best number more times than not. They should bet as soon as they see a number they like. The most likely time for that to happen is at the open or just after. The number become more efficient and harder to beat afterwards.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Not if the Jazz are the right side. Always bet against the market when you have the right side. Bet Jazz and keep betting the Jazz.

    Sure, they just lost 6 of their last 8 ATS. what makes you think you have the right side??

    Anybody reading this, other than the ones discussing right now, please understand that I have barely seen more BS, bad questions, bad assumptions and bad advice than what R40 and Danshan have been spewing in this one so far.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Sure, they just lost 6 of their last 8 ATS. what makes you think you have the right side??

    Anybody reading this, other than the ones discussing right now, please understand that I have barely seen more BS, bad questions, bad assumptions and bad advice than what R40 and Danshan have been spewing in this one so far.

    This is a theoretical. I have rarely seen anyone have a harder time following a theoretical question.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    This is a theoretical. I have rarely seen anyone have a harder time following a theoretical question.

    and the BS continues.........
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    LOL why do you keep talking about the Jazz dude? I am talking about in general and the only benefit to betting last second for someone is In theory betting at the close should minimize the variance in your bankroll losses.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    and the BS continues.........

    Please follow along. We are winning with the Jazz. You shoiuld get on board.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    LOL why do you keep talking about the Jazz dude? I am talking about in general and the only benefit to betting last second for someone is In theory betting at the close should minimize the variance in your bankroll losses.

    The answer to your theoretical question is: No it does not. Betting the best available line minimizes the variance in your bankroll losses.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi , let me ask you a question , first almost totally agree on what your saying. question , how does the public tend to bet , do we agree favorites and over ? if that is correct ,and my line tells me a favorite is under valued ,i should bet it right away. If my line says a dog has value and the public tends to bet favorites, i should wait as long as i can ? just one example from last night , my line on the was/mia line was wash -1.64 , at -4 i was getting 2.36 pts worth of value , but i waited and found mia +4.5, 2.86 pts worth of value that put me into a higher winning percentage subset. You can say i lucked out but they all equal out in the end , or thats what ive been told.
    For me personally , am betting favorites early and dogs as late as i can.

    I like clev tonight , my line den -1.09, i couldve bet them a little while ago at +3 which gave me 1.91 pts of line value but am waiting and just now the line moved to +3.5 ,which again puts me into a better subset , no clue which way the lines will go but i have a better chance at a better number when i do bet favorites early and dogs late.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    LOL why do you keep talking about the Jazz dude? I am talking about in general and the only benefit to betting last second for someone is In theory betting at the close should minimize the variance in your bankroll losses.

    You mentioned the Jazz. If we are going to bet the Jazz, we have to assume we think the Jazz are the best side every day. If we are betting them every day, we must assume that we must be right or why would be bet them.

    Assuming we can bet the Jazz blindly on knowledge that they are going to win, we will most likely be getting an undervalued price early as the market is not recognizing the value of the Jazz. Or the Spurs or Patriots or whatever market-beating team we would hypothetically bet on. At not time will betting at the close be the most inefficient line on average.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    Obi , let me ask you a question , first almost totally agree on what your saying. question , how does the public tend to bet , do we agree favorites and over ? if that is correct ,and my line tells me a favorite is under valued ,i should bet it right away. If my line says a dog has value and the public tends to bet favorites, i should wait as long as i can ? just one example from last night , my line on the was/mia line was wash -1.64 , at -4 i was getting 2.36 pts worth of value , but i waited and found mia +4.5, 2.86 pts worth of value that put me into a higher winning percentage subset. You can say i lucked out but they all equal out in the end , or thats what ive been told.
    For me personally , am betting favorites early and dogs as late as i can.

    I like clev tonight , my line den -1.09, i couldve bet them a little while ago at +3 which gave me 1.91 pts of line value but am waiting and just now the line moved to +3.5 ,which again puts me into a better subset , no clue which way the lines will go but i have a better chance at a better number when i do bet favorites early and dogs late.

    Dog lines move down at the open regularly. This is an idea that might have been true in 1975. It is not true today.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    Obi , let me ask you a question , first almost totally agree on what your saying. question , how does the public tend to bet , do we agree favorites and over ? if that is correct ,and my line tells me a favorite is under valued ,i should bet it right away. If my line says a dog has value and the public tends to bet favorites, i should wait as long as i can ? just one example from last night , my line on the was/mia line was wash -1.64 , at -4 i was getting 2.36 pts worth of value , but i waited and found mia +4.5, 2.86 pts worth of value that put me into a higher winning percentage subset. You can say i lucked out but they all equal out in the end , or thats what ive been told.
    For me personally , am betting favorites early and dogs as late as i can.

    I like clev tonight , my line den -1.09, i couldve bet them a little while ago at +3 which gave me 1.91 pts of line value but am waiting and just now the line moved to +3.5 ,which again puts me into a better subset , no clue which way the lines will go but i have a better chance at a better number when i do bet favorites early and dogs late.


    with that theory why set lines why not just bet favorites early and overs at open and wait for them to adjust up? I kinda like the idea but I am thinking the lines wiggle but they sharpen up the longer they go, so even dogs or unders would adjust accordingly and lower your potential gap.
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