Wrong. Flat betting is the only way for you to go. You should not bet more than 1% on any of your bets. And if you are using a model, you might want to reduce that to 0.5% if you plan on betting with high volume.
Once you have bet for 100s of bets and turned a positive return, you can up your betting allocations. As a guideline, you would bet 2% on something that was basically a 53% bet and 3% on a 56% bet.
But until you establish that you having a winning model with a substantial number of bets, you should not exceed 1% if you can help it.
I have in the NBA
120W 104L .57%+CLV
how many more games would you say I need to know what staking method to use?
Hundreds. You really should probably take your NBA model and apply it to college basketball.
I really would focus more on handicapping. If you have an edge at handicapping, it can never be taken away. Your opportunities will be reduced but your ability to win will probably always be there. With a model, you always have to be the best modeler.
To try to outmodel people on NBA is a waste of time. You have no concept of how smart those people are and how much they are putting into their models.
Do you know who Dr. Bob is? He is one of the most successful gamblers to come along. He lost every dollar he ever won last year on NBA by overestimating his edge and failing to understand the risk he was taking. That is what overconfidence and variance can do.
Fortunately, he was not actually betting the stuff to that degree and he lives on.
how many hundreds I am asking for a specific number if you can please.
have you looked at the my lines I post up every morning for the NBA? I personally have not found anyone yet that has better prediction numbers than me. YEs I know a guy named Blah BLah has done 7 million games and makes 640 billion per year using the same computer that they use to control the International space station and they spend over 3 million per hour on MIT guys to run it but I have not seen anybody or met anybody that puts up better numbers than me yet. My lingo and understanding of the staking methods and some other stuff might show my lack of experience but I think my "guesses" I put up every day speak for themselves. What do you think of my "guesses" of the lines I post everyday?
how many hundreds I am asking for a specific number if you can please.
I am not a modeler so just have to estimate close to 1,000. But modelers do something called backtesting. They go back and see how their model would have worked in the past and if it works, they go forward with it. They probably use 1,000 bets doing that.
You are flying blind so really need to paper bet for a couple years and see how things go or bet a very small amount just for kicks.
I am not a modeler so ust have to estimate close to 1,000. But modelers do something called backtesting. They go back and see how their model would have worked in the past and if it works, they go forward with it. They probably use 1,000 bets doing that.
You are flying blind so really need to paper bet for a couple years and see how things go or bet a very small amount just for kicks.
I have backtested and my numbers are I would say very very very good
first 4 would have been wagers last 4 are just game guesses
Side Side Total Total Side Side Total Total
2.231 -2.259 4.546 -4.550 0.845 -0.828 2.372 -1.366
how many hundreds I am asking for a specific number if you can please.
have you looked at the my lines I post up every morning for the NBA? I personally have not found anyone yet that has better prediction numbers than me. YEs I know a guy named Blah BLah has done 7 million games and makes 640 billion per year using the same computer that they use to control the International space station and they spend over 3 million per hour on MIT guys to run it but I have not seen anybody or met anybody that puts up better numbers than me yet. My lingo and understanding of the staking methods and some other stuff might show my lack of experience but I think my "guesses" I put up every day speak for themselves. What do you think of my "guesses" of the lines I post everyday?
I don't need to see any of your lines to know you don't have the slightest clue what you are doing. But you are at least asking the questions that you need to ask and looking for the answers.
I have backtested and my numbers are I would say very very very good
first 4 would have been wagers last 4 are just game guesses
Side Side Total Total Side Side Total Total
2.231 -2.259 4.546 -4.550 0.845 -0.828 2.372 -1.366
I don't need to see any of your lines to know you don't have the slightest clue what you are doing. But you are at least asking the questions that you need to ask and looking for the answers.
what is your background to say that? Maybe I am just clueless to who you are and your credibility?
Since you are interested in feedback and evaluating what you are doing, my recommendation to you is to start an NBA thread here and carry it forward for a few years. People will follow along and see how you are doing and make comments on your performance when you ask for it when they see you are making a serious attempt and looking for feedback.
that is not a real possibility for me here, people hate me here but that just gives me fuel to be better. I know one thing I work harder on sports than almost everyone. If you can succeed I will, I am relentless, got big balls and dont give a f*(&, I will try until I die
you should look at my lines I post everyday! That has nothing to do with variance luck or it is pure skill! Please look at them and comment, I can take all the clueless, dumb, and lost comments and I will continue to take them until they cant say it anymore!
that is not a real possibility for me here, people hate me here but that just gives me fuel to be better. I know one thing I work harder on sports than almost everyone. If you can succeed I will, I am relentless, got big balls and dont give a f*(&, I will try until I die
They don't respect you danshan. They think you are clueless. But everybody was there once and there are people here that do this for a living with models and they will drop something here and there because they got help along the way and they are interested to see what you are doing and how it is going. Everybody likes a pick thread.
No. I actually have only been at this a few years. But I am a finance guy and approach gambling from that perspective so know about efficient markets and such and all that goes into it.
Ok Jets I have been putting up my NBA numbers any suggestions or comments on my lines I post everyday, anything specific I can work on to improve them?
Ok Jets I have been putting up my NBA numbers any suggestions or comments on my lines I post everyday, anything specific I can work on to improve them?
The first thing for you to know danshan is that nobody is going to tell you how to improve a model. That is top secret info. They will give you some info on your performance. They will help you determine if your CLV is meaningful, if you have a sufficient sample and that sort of thing. They will never give you any info on what to put in your model.
I am not asking for specific help, I am asking for critique or an area to focus on
What you are doing right now is not going to get you anywhere. First, people don't care about your numbers. They ignore them completely. They want to see you dance. When you start picking games and put some effort into it, they will give you a little something. But this is the worst place in the world to just try to get info. They will ignore you completely as an annoyance.
I told you what to do ....and i think you take games with a difference in 2.5 pts is that what you said ??i look at your lines but i think from what i see when they go against mine ,they arent as efficient. i have no time am leaving for fla in a little to watch son play ball.
go back put your lines next to mine, see where we agree and disagree ...tell me what you find..
remember i have plays with 1.01 to 3.5 off the posted line at the time i bet it. and even that its broken down into different subsets...
with different winning percentages ....
i think i told you all of them in the past ,
I do side plays at 2 off and totals at 4 off. and what I consider a measure of effeciency is my guess line to the closing line. I dont ever consider my number sharper than the close. I only judge my number against the closing line. I consider my numbers good when they are extremely close to the actual close.
My goal is for my model to show me some holes where 2 and 4 is met and when I make those plays I want them to come closer to my number at close than they were when i bet them.
I do side plays at 2 off and totals at 4 off. and what I consider a measure of effeciency is my guess line to the closing line. I dont ever consider my number sharper than the close. I only judge my number against the closing line. I consider my numbers good when they are extremely close to the actual close.
My goal is for my model to show me some holes where 2 and 4 is met and when I make those plays I want them to come closer to my number at close than they were when i bet them.
The best modelers here are probably doing college basketball. They have no opinion on your NBA numbers. If you pick games and post CLV and such, they will have a handle on how effective your model is or isn't. They are not going to take the time to evaluate anything else.
Well, I've got to give you credit. You do have some dedication. But not a whole lot to go on.
With positive CLV, you are headed in the right direction.
Start posting here where people do not need to look at your stuff because they aren't going to do it.
You don't know who here has the stuff and who doesn't. So any opinions you receive are not particularly valuable.
The results have to do the talking. If you aren't going to do that, you can forget about getting any feedback. They don't think you are going to listen and aren't going to deal with you
Well, I've got to give you credit. You do have some dedication. But not a whole lot to go on.
With positive CLV, you are headed in the right direction.
Start posting here where people do not need to look at your stuff because they aren't going to do it.
You don't know who here has the stuff and who doesn't. So any opinions you receive are not particularly valuable.
The results have to do the talking. If you aren't going to do that, you can forget about getting any feedback. They don't think you are going to listen and aren't going to deal with you
that is why I post my lines to let my lines do the talking. My lines to me prove I am not talking out my arse. Bunch of people say dumb stuff but dont post up their lines for sure. yeah I know you earn respect well in this world you would think my lines could do that but these people hate me so bad that not saying anything about my lines means to me they are freaking good because if they were not people would surely say something and LOUD on here believe that! and yes to me its all about +CLV and I am getting that maybe not at great levels cause I am a dumbass rookie but +CLV over 200+ games is better than most rookies! Yes I want someone to pat me on my back because darn it I deserve it for the work I have done and for at minimum all the rudeness and crap I have taken here LOL
listen anyone can post their lines, me included, just look online and see what they are and then just fake it ...like r40 suggested , post your picks .
all the rudeness goes away if you are a winner , post your picks everyday , but id really like for you to compare your lines with mine, ive only been trying to perfect it, for like ever, and you do in a new york minute.
I post my lines before they come out everyday, I cant fake that. when I compare our lines what should i be comparing them to. I think if I did compare them it should be against the closing line dont you think. I am so grateful for the help you give me and also the posting of your lines helps me as well to gauge how I am doing. you are literally the only person who even entertains my posts and it does not go unappreciated. I will take the lines you posted and the lines I posted for the same games and the closing line and put them on a spreadsheet and add it here,give me a minute
that is why I post my lines to let my lines do the talking. My lines to me prove I am not talking out my arse. Bunch of people say dumb stuff but dont post up their lines for sure. yeah I know you earn respect well in this world you would think my lines could do that but these people hate me so bad that not saying anything about my lines means to me they are freaking good because if they were not people would surely say something and LOUD on here believe that! and yes to me its all about +CLV and I am getting that maybe not at great levels cause I am a dumbass rookie but +CLV over 200+ games is better than most rookies! Yes I want someone to pat me on my back because darn it I deserve it for the work I have done and for at minimum all the rudeness and crap I have taken here LOL
You aren't hated here. You are just seen for what you are which is a novice. People think you are clueless and can't make sense of some of your posts.
In any case, this is not really a place to get pats on the back. It is part proving ground for those that want to prove something and a place to discuss higher level gambling concepts with people that are advanced at gambling.
Comments
I have in the NBA
120W 104L .57%+CLV
how many more games would you say I need to know what staking method to use?
I really would focus more on handicapping. If you have an edge at handicapping, it can never be taken away. Your opportunities will be reduced but your ability to win will probably always be there. With a model, you always have to be the best modeler.
To try to outmodel people on NBA is a waste of time. You have no concept of how smart those people are and how much they are putting into their models.
Do you know who Dr. Bob is? He is one of the most successful gamblers to come along. He lost every dollar he ever won last year on NBA by overestimating his edge and failing to understand the risk he was taking. That is what overconfidence and variance can do.
Fortunately, he was not actually betting the stuff to that degree and he lives on.
have you looked at the my lines I post up every morning for the NBA? I personally have not found anyone yet that has better prediction numbers than me. YEs I know a guy named Blah BLah has done 7 million games and makes 640 billion per year using the same computer that they use to control the International space station and they spend over 3 million per hour on MIT guys to run it but I have not seen anybody or met anybody that puts up better numbers than me yet. My lingo and understanding of the staking methods and some other stuff might show my lack of experience but I think my "guesses" I put up every day speak for themselves. What do you think of my "guesses" of the lines I post everyday?
I am not a modeler so just have to estimate close to 1,000. But modelers do something called backtesting. They go back and see how their model would have worked in the past and if it works, they go forward with it. They probably use 1,000 bets doing that.
You are flying blind so really need to paper bet for a couple years and see how things go or bet a very small amount just for kicks.
I have backtested and my numbers are I would say very very very good
first 4 would have been wagers last 4 are just game guesses
Side Side Total Total Side Side Total Total
2.231 -2.259 4.546 -4.550 0.845 -0.828 2.372 -1.366
about 2500 games 2015 and 2016
I don't need to see any of your lines to know you don't have the slightest clue what you are doing. But you are at least asking the questions that you need to ask and looking for the answers.
OK then, proceed with caution.
what is your background to say that? Maybe I am just clueless to who you are and your credibility?
I've been around danshan. I've been around.
you should look at my lines I post everyday! That has nothing to do with variance luck or it is pure skill! Please look at them and comment, I can take all the clueless, dumb, and lost comments and I will continue to take them until they cant say it anymore!
They don't respect you danshan. They think you are clueless. But everybody was there once and there are people here that do this for a living with models and they will drop something here and there because they got help along the way and they are interested to see what you are doing and how it is going. Everybody likes a pick thread.
No. I actually have only been at this a few years. But I am a finance guy and approach gambling from that perspective so know about efficient markets and such and all that goes into it.
Just helping danshan find his way.
great job
The first thing for you to know danshan is that nobody is going to tell you how to improve a model. That is top secret info. They will give you some info on your performance. They will help you determine if your CLV is meaningful, if you have a sufficient sample and that sort of thing. They will never give you any info on what to put in your model.
I am looking for more like you model sucks, you are clueless, those types of things
What you are doing right now is not going to get you anywhere. First, people don't care about your numbers. They ignore them completely. They want to see you dance. When you start picking games and put some effort into it, they will give you a little something. But this is the worst place in the world to just try to get info. They will ignore you completely as an annoyance.
go back put your lines next to mine, see where we agree and disagree ...tell me what you find..
remember i have plays with 1.01 to 3.5 off the posted line at the time i bet it. and even that its broken down into different subsets...
with different winning percentages ....
i think i told you all of them in the past ,
My goal is for my model to show me some holes where 2 and 4 is met and when I make those plays I want them to come closer to my number at close than they were when i bet them.
The best modelers here are probably doing college basketball. They have no opinion on your NBA numbers. If you pick games and post CLV and such, they will have a handle on how effective your model is or isn't. They are not going to take the time to evaluate anything else.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o0o4459UqpPCPK3_0t3UyChCX2ou7L4EnyQlqJUbNsk/edit?usp=sharing
With positive CLV, you are headed in the right direction.
Start posting here where people do not need to look at your stuff because they aren't going to do it.
You don't know who here has the stuff and who doesn't. So any opinions you receive are not particularly valuable.
The results have to do the talking. If you aren't going to do that, you can forget about getting any feedback. They don't think you are going to listen and aren't going to deal with you
that is why I post my lines to let my lines do the talking. My lines to me prove I am not talking out my arse. Bunch of people say dumb stuff but dont post up their lines for sure. yeah I know you earn respect well in this world you would think my lines could do that but these people hate me so bad that not saying anything about my lines means to me they are freaking good because if they were not people would surely say something and LOUD on here believe that! and yes to me its all about +CLV and I am getting that maybe not at great levels cause I am a dumbass rookie but +CLV over 200+ games is better than most rookies! Yes I want someone to pat me on my back because darn it I deserve it for the work I have done and for at minimum all the rudeness and crap I have taken here LOL
all the rudeness goes away if you are a winner , post your picks everyday , but id really like for you to compare your lines with mine, ive only been trying to perfect it, for like ever, and you do in a new york minute.
You aren't hated here. You are just seen for what you are which is a novice. People think you are clueless and can't make sense of some of your posts.
In any case, this is not really a place to get pats on the back. It is part proving ground for those that want to prove something and a place to discuss higher level gambling concepts with people that are advanced at gambling.