Betting Talk

NBA Season Closeout with Lines and Pinny Picks

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited March 2018 in Sports Betting
3/3 Grizzlies 207
3/3 Magic -2
3/3 Nuggets 229
3/3 Cavaliers -3.5
3/3 Pistons 205
3/3 Heat -4.5
3/3 Celtics 211
3/3 Rockets -6
3/3 Lakers 218
3/3 Spurs -3.5 Gasol Out Aldridge??
3/3 Jazz -6.5
3/3 Kings 203
3/3 Thunder 212
3/3 Trailblazers -3.5

I will post my picks as soon as Pinny comes out
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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Record 0-0 CLV 0%
    3/3 Celtics 216.5U
    3/3 Celtics +8.5
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    i can do that bos game now neither play tonight brb
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    i can do that bos game now neither play tonight brb

    yeah do it please its the only game that has space in my guess lines

    I make my lines and then any game that is more than 2 off on spread or 3 off on total I bet
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    hou -5.23..as of right now bos is a pick for me as well....AT +8 or +8.5

    luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    yeah but it looks like it is going the other way, the line on those superteams always go higher than they should be Rockets, Warriors Cavs you can pretty much just add a point or two
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    and that doesn't bother me in the least ...if it goes past my parimiters its not a play , very easy...if houston keeps getting bet and it goes past my bettting point ill pass, plenty of other games
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    and that doesn't bother me in the least ...if it goes past my parimiters its not a play , very easy...if houston keeps getting bet and it goes past my bettting point ill pass, plenty of other games

    so if it went to -9 or -10 at some point you would then not bet it because it went too much the other way? thanks Jets I really appreciate the interaction, I feel like I am on an island with my betting stuff. Thanks again this is a huge help for me.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    the argument is if i like the game at +8 or +8.5 then it would make sense to like it at +9 ...i normally dont look at injuries , the line will tell me , except in some cases like the minn game tonight...oh made a mistake my line should be uta -1.55 not minn 0.45 , either way no play, am just so off this line, dont know why , no major injury to worry about, that i know of.
    when i have lines off 2.51 to 3.0 i win .6785 percent of the time...when 3.01 to 3.5 its .72 percent ...have a few of those games tonight.
    when it gets past 3.5 its drop .4666 percent .....lower then 1.0 its .4615 percent , so i need to get those games between 1.01 to 3.5 off my line.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I dont track win% by how far off I am but I do track how my CLV ends up based on how far off I am

    Sides Sides Sides Sides Totals Totals Totals Totals
    CLV -0.31% -1.78% 1.47% 1.48% -0.56% 1.99% 0.20% 0.89%
    guess <1.5 1.5 2-2.5 3&+ <3 3-3.5 4-5.5 over 5.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I get so frustrated how can I guess 9 out of 10 lines within 1 point and then i have the 1 that is off by 7 points with no major injury or anything that says why
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    hou 5.23
    orl 1.64
    cle 2.51
    mia 6.13
    sas 3.77
    por 5.20
    uta 3.26
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    hou 5.23
    orl 1.64
    cle 2.51
    mia 6.13
    sas 3.77
    por 5.20
    uta 3.26

    looks good, I think my Nuggets line is still soft too because of Milsap's return that wont factor fully into my line for a couple more games. I think Nuggets +5 is a steal!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    am thinking that as well and put a few bucks already but wanted to see where it was going
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3-3
    Nuggets +4.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Lines
    3/4 Suns 224
    3/4 Hawks -2.5
    3/4 Pacers 212
    3/4 Wizards -3
    3/4 Hornets 219
    3/4 Raptors -8
    3/4 Pelicans -3
    3/4 Mavericks 226
    3/4 Seventysixers 208
    3/4 Bucks -1.5
    3/4 Knicks -1
    3/4 Kings 207
    3/4 Nets 228
    3/4 Clippers -10.5 Gallinari????
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I know better and I bet against the Rockets and Cavaliers on a weekend night when I think the big home favorites like that always get overbet. I will see very little value in CLV on those bets!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3-3 Results +1.82%CLV
    W2-L1
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    atl 2.11
    tor 11
    was -1.65
    no 8.17
    phila 4.54
    lac 8.26
    nyk 0.27
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3/5 Pistons 216
    3/5 Cavaliers -6
    3/5 Bucks 209
    3/5 Pacers -2
    3/5 Suns 219
    3/5 Heat -10.5
    3/5 Celtics -11.5
    3/5 Bulls 212
    3/5 Grizzlies 199
    3/5 Spurs -11.5 Aldridge????
    3/5 Magic 207
    3/5 Jazz -10
    3/5 Trailblazers -5
    3/5 Lakers 220
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I got the clippers higher not sure why they are not moving??? weird
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3-4 Mavericks Pelicans Over 223
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3-5 Trailblazers -1.5
    3-5 Lakers 223.5U
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    results
    3-4
    CLV +1.06%
    3W-1L
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Just curious but how much per game are you betting on these games you are posting? Obviously you dont have to mention exactly how much but a general range amount i would be curious about.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    Just curious but how much per game are you betting on these games you are posting? Obviously you dont have to mention exactly how much but a general range amount i would be curious about.

    on my BOL line crushers LOL 250 bucks but i bet way more games at that but the posts here I am betting .5 btc per game but that will change very soon as soon as I learn how to use kelly with my guesses. right now I am flat betting and I can see from my clv across the board flat betting is not the smart play for me. I just need to learn the kelly for me system, thanks for asking!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3-6 LINES
    3/6 Seventysixers -0.5
    3/6 Hornets 213
    3/6 Heat 206
    3/6 Wizards -4
    3/6 Hawks 217
    3/6 Raptors -14.5
    3/6 Rockets -3.5
    3/6 Thunder 218
    3/6 Nuggets -5
    3/6 Mavericks 223
    3/6 Knicks 216
    3/6 Trailblazers -8.5
    3/6 Pelicans 231
    3/6 Clippers -3
    3/6 Nets 232.5
    3/6 Warriors -16.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3-6 Bet
    Warriors -14
    Mavericks 219O
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    cle -4.48
    ind 4.74
    mia 8.26
    bos 8.17
    sas 10.47
    uta 7.23
    por 1.06
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    3-5 Trailblazers -1.5
    3-5 Lakers 223.5U

    sharp as a nerf football on the Lakers game
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Results 3-5
    CLV -.31%
    W5-L1
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