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    Default MLB Model

    I just am doing some work on a baby MLB model and I backtested it against the last 1500 or so games and it is
    average 14 cents low and 19 cents high average line of -115, is that 1-10, 1 horrible, get a day job get a work for food sign or 10 perfect wow unbelievable rich forever you are a genius. I am obviously trying to get it closer anyway I can but just wanted a few opinions.

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    what happened to your nba model

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    its doing great, really good! better than I ever expected and 99% of my success I owe to the people that treated me horrible here but the words of wisdom were wise!

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    I am actually 10 low and 13 high on MLB I have another 1000 records, is that warm or cold for an MLB model?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I am actually 10 low and 13 high on MLB I have another 1000 records, is that warm or cold for an MLB model?
    When I backtest I'm at about 40% success at understanding anything danshan says in a given post. I picture a guy in a wheelchair typing with a plastic wand strapped to his head like Stephen Hawking.

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    The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to paddyboy111 For This Useful Post:

    bumpo (02-23-2018),  MrAdvantage (03-01-2018)  

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    Quote Originally Posted by paddyboy111 View Post
    When I backtest I'm at about 40% success at understanding anything danshan says in a given post. I picture a guy in a wheelchair typing with a plastic wand strapped to his head like Stephen Hawking.
    thanks for the help! you were one of those guys in school who seen the real bullies picking on someone so you then you started to do it too! BE PROUD!

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    dan you have to admit that's funny sh**. But I also have to say that's a pretty good response. Nothing like starting the day with a good laugh I give that point to paddyboy111

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    it is funny! I like funny shit!

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    I would reply with something funny but I am afraid one of you old folks will fall down and break your hip

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I would reply with something funny but I am afraid one of you old folks will fall down and break your hip
    Nice one. I don't understand the metric you are describing. Can you state it differently in case I can help?

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    I dont care what you guys think of me, you taught me tons and for that I am grateful and I try to give back here when I can! I have shared sheets, did projections for guys, shared links and anything else I can do to give back, I am grateful!

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    I run my model and it comes back with lines
    I take those lines it kicks out and compare them to the closing line of past games
    I predict the line of -118 and the line I predict is off the close in the range of -108 to -130.
    I do it both ways so I can get a range. I cant just average my result because it would be not nearly as close

    my only question is that close enough to do well or is that way way way off does it need to way closer

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    I do wish people took me seriously. I am a serious member who is doing his best to set fair lines. My only goal now is to set fair lines and I am getting very good at it. I only ask questions because i have researched tirelessly and cant find the answers anywhere else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I run my model and it comes back with lines
    I take those lines it kicks out and compare them to the closing line of past games
    I predict the line of -118 and the line I predict is off the close in the range of -108 to -130.
    I do it both ways so I can get a range. I cant just average my result because it would be not nearly as close

    my only question is that close enough to do well or is that way way way off does it need to way closer
    I'm interested in the parameters of your model. How much are starting pitchers weighted versus other factors? Is travel considered? Injuries? Hot streaks or slumps? I also wonder if baseball has more or less intangibles like motivation and fatigue than with other sports. Or so long as it back tests, you can ignore all the noise?

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    Quote Originally Posted by crash View Post
    I'm interested in the parameters of your model. How much are starting pitchers weighted versus other factors? Is travel considered? Injuries? Hot streaks or slumps? I also wonder if baseball has more or less intangibles like motivation and fatigue than with other sports. Or so long as it back tests, you can ignore all the noise?

    right now I am just working on the baseline for my model.

    I dont consider many of those factors as important in my model sure some but most NOT.

    guess -118 could be -109 to -130

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