Betting Talk

MLB Model

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited March 2018 in Sports Betting
I just am doing some work on a baby MLB model and I backtested it against the last 1500 or so games and it is
average 14 cents low and 19 cents high average line of -115, is that 1-10, 1 horrible, get a day job get a work for food sign or 10 perfect wow unbelievable rich forever you are a genius. I am obviously trying to get it closer anyway I can but just wanted a few opinions.
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Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    what happened to your nba model
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    its doing great, really good! better than I ever expected and 99% of my success I owe to the people that treated me horrible here but the words of wisdom were wise!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I am actually 10 low and 13 high on MLB I have another 1000 records, is that warm or cold for an MLB model?
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I am actually 10 low and 13 high on MLB I have another 1000 records, is that warm or cold for an MLB model?

    When I backtest I'm at about 40% success at understanding anything danshan says in a given post. I picture a guy in a wheelchair typing with a plastic wand strapped to his head like Stephen Hawking.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    When I backtest I'm at about 40% success at understanding anything danshan says in a given post. I picture a guy in a wheelchair typing with a plastic wand strapped to his head like Stephen Hawking.

    thanks for the help! you were one of those guys in school who seen the real bullies picking on someone so you then you started to do it too! BE PROUD!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    dan you have to admit that's funny sh**. But I also have to say that's a pretty good response. Nothing like starting the day with a good laugh I give that point to paddyboy111
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    it is funny! I like funny shit!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I would reply with something funny but I am afraid one of you old folks will fall down and break your hip
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I would reply with something funny but I am afraid one of you old folks will fall down and break your hip

    Nice one. I don't understand the metric you are describing. Can you state it differently in case I can help?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I dont care what you guys think of me, you taught me tons and for that I am grateful and I try to give back here when I can! I have shared sheets, did projections for guys, shared links and anything else I can do to give back, I am grateful!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I run my model and it comes back with lines
    I take those lines it kicks out and compare them to the closing line of past games
    I predict the line of -118 and the line I predict is off the close in the range of -108 to -130.
    I do it both ways so I can get a range. I cant just average my result because it would be not nearly as close

    my only question is that close enough to do well or is that way way way off does it need to way closer
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I do wish people took me seriously. I am a serious member who is doing his best to set fair lines. My only goal now is to set fair lines and I am getting very good at it. I only ask questions because i have researched tirelessly and cant find the answers anywhere else.
  • crashcrash Member
    edited February 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I run my model and it comes back with lines
    I take those lines it kicks out and compare them to the closing line of past games
    I predict the line of -118 and the line I predict is off the close in the range of -108 to -130.
    I do it both ways so I can get a range. I cant just average my result because it would be not nearly as close

    my only question is that close enough to do well or is that way way way off does it need to way closer

    I'm interested in the parameters of your model. How much are starting pitchers weighted versus other factors? Is travel considered? Injuries? Hot streaks or slumps? I also wonder if baseball has more or less intangibles like motivation and fatigue than with other sports. Or so long as it back tests, you can ignore all the noise?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    crash wrote: »
    I'm interested in the parameters of your model. How much are starting pitchers weighted versus other factors? Is travel considered? Injuries? Hot streaks or slumps? I also wonder if baseball has more or less intangibles like motivation and fatigue than with other sports. Or so long as it back tests, you can ignore all the noise?


    right now I am just working on the baseline for my model.

    I dont consider many of those factors as important in my model sure some but most NOT.

    guess -118 could be -109 to -130
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    hot streaks and slumps mean zero to me
    starter is about 95%
    travel should be but I dont think it is as important as in Hockey or the NBA
    motivation is not something I can find a value for so I avoid games with huge implications
    I back test like crazy and that backtest does not adjust for any of that but does factor in the prev lines of course so in a sense its in there
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    id be more interested in seeing you post nba, if that model of your s is what you say it is
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    id be more interested in seeing you post nba, if that model of your s is what you say it is

    you know my model is what i say it is. I showed you already with the lines I posted. MY NBA model is solid! The NBA is winding down so now I am working on MLB.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    anyway can you tell me what you think of my 10 cent high or low, if that is the right direction or I need to be way closer, would love some help on this now so I have time to work on it before the bats crack
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    anybody chime in on my MLB?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    it looks like in the NBA that a point is worth very roughly 20 cents on the moneyline

    so I am wildy assuming that a variation of 10 cents on baseball would be comparable to being about half point basically off in the NBA and a little less than a half point off in the NFL, does that make any sense to anyone other than me? If that is the case I would assume that the MLB model being 10 cents off is very accurate. Any opinions?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    Jets put up your nba lines for tomorrow right now before they come out and I will do the same
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    milu 2.58
    tor 10.06
    ind 6.20
    mem 1.87
    okc 2.00
    sas 1.18

    cant do the others to they play tonight ...do me a favor post something in my thread, i only look at a few people here
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    milu 2.58
    tor 10.06
    ind 6.20
    mem 1.87
    okc 2.00
    sas 1.18

    cant do the others to they play tonight ...do me a favor post something in my thread, i only look at a few people here


    2/28 Pistons -2
    2/28 Magic 9
    2/28 Magic 221
    2/28 Hawks 4
    2/28 Hawks 211
    2/28 Celtics -7
    2/28 Celtics 211
    2/28 Grizzlies -3.5
    2/28 Suns 217
    2/28 Wizards 8
    2/28 Wizards 225
    2/28 Mavericks 5.5
    2/28 Clippers 219
    2/28 Rockets -6 rockts iffy lots of changes coming with injuries
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    3/1 Lakers 214
    3/1 Heat -5
    3/1 Seventysixers 217
    3/1 Cavaliers -2
    3/1 Nets 214
    3/1 Kings -1.5
    3/1 Timberwolves 218
    3/1 Trailblazers -3.5


    post up your 3-1 picks Jets!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    added bos -5.14
    gsw 5.45
    hou 6.54

    and milu which i forgot played last night was adjusted 0,60
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    thanks I will post again tomorrow before BOL releases try and beat them if you can, it will be fun to see how close we get
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    3/2 Pistons -3
    3/2 Magic 212
    3/2 Hornets 212
    3/2 Seventysixers -2
    3/2 Warriors -14
    3/2 Hawks 223
    3/2 Mavericks -1
    3/2 Bulls 210
    3/2 Nuggets -7.5
    3/2 Grizzlies 214
    3/2 Raptors -2.5
    3/2 Wizards 217
    3/2 Pacers 210
    3/2 Bucks -2.5
    3/2 Thunder -9
    3/2 Suns 226
    3/2 Timberwolves 212
    3/2 Jazz -7
    3/2 Knicks 222
    3/2 Clippers -8
    Bucks Clippers ???? still have big name players ???
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    mia 3.34
    cle 0.31
    sac 0.05
    por 3.59

    looks like am taking all four dogs
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    mia 3.34
    cle 0.31
    sac 0.05
    por 3.59

    looks like am taking all four dogs

    Clippers got me again, Clippers and Suns are just crushing me everyday, I literally have no learning curve cause I cant learn!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    post what games your taking ....am still a little confused on what your taking going by your projected lines.
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