Betting Talk

MLB Model

2»

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    post what games your taking ....am still a little confused on what your taking going by your projected lines.

    3-2 games bet
    date, team, current line, my guess, line bet at, wager amount, current CLV
    3/2 Magic 213.5 212 217 0.5 5.40%
    3/2 Knicks 226.5 222 226.5 0.5 -1.22%
    3/2 Bulls 213 210 213.5 0.5 -0.17%
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    where you get 217 on magic game
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    yeah I am not keeping a record but I got that at open at BOL, I pound their lines 4 or 5 times at max open cheese and have been doing pretty well with it https://imgur.com/a/fBwU6

    at Rush I got it at at 215.5 which they basically I think copy off pinny lines
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I am not worried about bets I am worried about closeness to closing line, I try my hardest to get as close to the line as possible in my predictions.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    and my bet history on my sheets and my clv is based only on pinny lines and juice. I do not do clv on BS opener lines
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I feel like my NBA lines are tight but I just need some learning on how to bet them based on some sort of kelly. I am struggling with it big time. I make more CLV on games that I have a larger gap from current line. I need to learn how to bet that larger gap without over betting it.
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    When I backtest I'm at about 40% success at understanding anything danshan says in a given post. I picture a guy in a wheelchair typing with a plastic wand strapped to his head like Stephen Hawking.

    JFC I THINK I DRIBBLED A LITTLE
  • gobucks2gobucks2 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I feel like my NBA lines are tight but I just need some learning on how to bet them based on some sort of kelly. I am struggling with it big time. I make more CLV on games that I have a larger gap from current line. I need to learn how to bet that larger gap without over betting it.
    Right, the easy part is crunching all the data and making a line that is sharper than the market. The tough part is plugging a couple numbers into a simple equation and performing third grade arithmetic.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    det 3.25
    phi -6.09
    gsw 12.37
    tor 0.67
    chi 0.07
    den 4.91
    ind 0.94
    okc 5.86
    min 0.45
    lac 7.56

    as of right now plays would be

    phila -3
    chi +2
    mem +8
    wash +4
    pho +7.5

    phil , mem and wash are very high rated games for me
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    I posted on the new thread I made for 3-3
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    and i like that you had tor -2.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    gobucks2 wrote: »
    Right, the easy part is crunching all the data and making a line that is sharper than the market. The tough part is plugging a couple numbers into a simple equation and performing third grade arithmetic.

    I dont understand are you just being rude or are you making a point cause I missed both or either or which, LOL?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    and i like that you had tor -2.5
    raters for Wiz Rap
    2.27
    2.91
    5.00
    2.50
    0.97
    2.91
Sign In or Register to comment.