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    Senior Member burger's Avatar
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    Default Help/Opinions Wanted....(Any math guys out there)

    So here is the readers digest version:

    I have a 76'ers season win total ticket at OVER 39.5 @ +122
    6000 risk to win 7320.

    Sixers currently stand at 29-25 (28 games remaining 14 Home/14 Away)

    The book reached out today and asked if I would be interested in a buyout where he paid me x amount of money and the bets were basically cancelled (win or lose).

    Sixers have statistically the easiest schedule remaining in the NBA if you look at win % of teams left on their schedule.

    Personally I would think the chances of the bet not winning at almost 0% but I know that is ridiculous to think that way.

    Even if Embiid/Simmons were to both go down with injury (knock on wood that doesn't happen) it's still not unlikely that the team could finish 11-17.

    If one of them were to go down I think the team goes .500 the rest of the way making the bet an easy winner.

    If they both stay healthy I think the team finishes with close to 50 wins.


    So just to entertain the notion of "a bird in the hand"....

    What would you guys (especially any great math guys) feel is a proper and fair (with maybe a high/low range) buyout for the wager knowing the specifics that I laid out above?

    Thanks in advance

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    maybe this will help you all you got to do is using these numbers determine win probability at these lines and that should give you what the chances are.
    opponent line
    Magic -11
    Hornets -6
    Pacers -5.5
    Nets -11
    Hornets -6
    Grizzlies -9.5
    Timberwolves -2
    Nuggets -3
    Knicks -9.5
    Nets -11
    Cavaliers -3.5
    Mavericks -8
    Bucks -5
    Bulls -5.5
    Wizards 0.5
    Heat -0.5
    Cavaliers 0.5
    Bucks 0.5
    Hornets -0.5
    Heat -0.5
    Nets -6
    Knicks -5.5
    Magic -6.5
    Hawks -5
    Hornets -0.5
    Pistons 0.5
    Hawks -5

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    these lines are assuming the major stars are playing on both sides

    here is a win probablity link
    http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-proba...pread-nfl-nba/

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    and IMHO HELL NO, NO F'ING WAY BUYOUT you got 6 double digit favorite games at least

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    and IMHO HELL NO, NO F'ING WAY BUYOUT you got 6 double digit favorite games at least
    I can't believe I'm about to say this.
    I agree with Danshan

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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyProfane View Post
    I can't believe I'm about to say this.
    I agree with Danshan
    FiveThirtyEight has an ELO model that has the 76ers finishing with 47 wins based on remaining schedule.

    With 28 games to go, that is an expectation of 18 wins and 10 losses. So lets call it a binomial with n=28, p=.643, q=.357. There is a 99.4% chance that this will exceed the 11 wins you need to cash. But this assumes each game is an independent trial.

    But this would overstate the odds because each game isn't independent. If we run it as a negative binomial with a CV of 2.0, which is a good rule of thumb that I thinks overstates injury/streak risks, it comes out to a 91.6% probability.

    If he offered me more than 91.6% of the ticket value I'd probably jump on it. Keep in mind this is 91.6% of the $13,320, not 91.65 of the $7,320.

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    paddyboy where you from ??

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    Quote Originally Posted by paddyboy111 View Post
    FiveThirtyEight has an ELO model that has the 76ers finishing with 47 wins based on remaining schedule.

    With 28 games to go, that is an expectation of 18 wins and 10 losses. So lets call it a binomial with n=28, p=.643, q=.357. There is a 99.4% chance that this will exceed the 11 wins you need to cash. But this assumes each game is an independent trial.

    But this would overstate the odds because each game isn't independent. If we run it as a negative binomial with a CV of 2.0, which is a good rule of thumb that I thinks overstates injury/streak risks, it comes out to a 91.6% probability.

    If he offered me more than 91.6% of the ticket value I'd probably jump on it. Keep in mind this is 91.6% of the $13,320, not 91.65 of the $7,320.

    I think that is the smartest way I have ever heard someone say HELL NO KEEP THAT TICKET!

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    I have them right around 47 based on current win total, current team ranking and remaining schedule.

    Atlanta Hawks 26.62 55.38
    Boston Celtics 53.18 28.82
    Brooklyn Nets 25.32 56.68
    Charlotte Hornets 37.46 44.54
    Chicago Bulls 27.96 54.04
    Cleveland Cavaliers 50.41 31.59
    Dallas Mavericks 29.00 53.00
    Denver Nuggets 44.02 37.98
    Detroit Pistons 40.89 41.11
    Golden State Warriors 63.79 18.21
    Houston Rockets 62.08 19.92
    Indiana Pacers 43.18 38.82
    Los Angeles Clippers 43.30 38.70
    Los Angeles Lakers 33.25 48.75
    Memphis Grizzlies 27.73 54.27
    Miami Heat 44.47 37.53
    Milwaukee Bucks 46.34 35.66
    Minnesota Timberwolves 48.18 33.82
    New Orleans Pelicans 42.70 39.30
    New York Knickerbockers 29.35 52.65
    Oklahoma City Thunder 45.83 36.17
    Orlando Magic 26.58 55.42
    Philadelphia 76ers 46.95 35.05
    Phoenix Suns 23.44 58.56
    Portland Trail Blazers 45.45 36.55
    Sacramento Kings 26.25 55.75
    San Antonio Spurs 48.50 33.50
    Toronto Raptors 58.48 23.52
    Utah Jazz 43.27 38.73
    Washington Wizards 46.05 35.95

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    Senior Member R40's Avatar
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    The biggest consideration is probably if you are going to be able to make these kind of bets with the book in the future. Because if you don't take the deal. probably not. But your chances are probably not that good anyway considering they are trying to cut a deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    paddyboy where you from ??
    Bronx originally now in Hoboken. Lifelong Jets fan.

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    Bronx me to , riverdale boy , now live in the highest property taxed county in these united states , last time i checked.
    Do you go to jets games ????

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    Quote Originally Posted by jets96 View Post
    Bronx me to , riverdale boy , now live in the highest property taxed county in these united states , last time i checked.
    Do you go to jets games ????
    Must be Westchester. I can barely watch Jets on TV with my toddlers. I was from Woodlawn but bussed to Riverdale for grade school at Fieldston.

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    Not from a math side here but the 76ers schedule is very favorable for you hitting your original bet. Lot of tanking teams down the stretch.


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    paddy ,not cheap where you are either , kinda waiting and seeing where my son goes after college but am sure am heading to F L A
    My taxes alone are 17 grand a year.
    If you dont mind me asking , whats your math background, no need to answer if you dont want , it looks like you know what your talking about , had a few guy s here trying to put my models together , i basically do it all on paper. They werent sport guys and hard to explain to them what the hell i wanted.

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