Betting Talk

Help/Opinions Wanted....(Any math guys out there)

burgerburger Senior Member
edited February 2018 in Sports Betting
So here is the readers digest version:

I have a 76'ers season win total ticket at OVER 39.5 @ +122
6000 risk to win 7320.

Sixers currently stand at 29-25 (28 games remaining 14 Home/14 Away)

The book reached out today and asked if I would be interested in a buyout where he paid me x amount of money and the bets were basically cancelled (win or lose).

Sixers have statistically the easiest schedule remaining in the NBA if you look at win % of teams left on their schedule.

Personally I would think the chances of the bet not winning at almost 0% but I know that is ridiculous to think that way.

Even if Embiid/Simmons were to both go down with injury (knock on wood that doesn't happen) it's still not unlikely that the team could finish 11-17.

If one of them were to go down I think the team goes .500 the rest of the way making the bet an easy winner.

If they both stay healthy I think the team finishes with close to 50 wins.


So just to entertain the notion of "a bird in the hand"....

What would you guys (especially any great math guys) feel is a proper and fair (with maybe a high/low range) buyout for the wager knowing the specifics that I laid out above?

Thanks in advance

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    maybe this will help you all you got to do is using these numbers determine win probability at these lines and that should give you what the chances are.
    opponent line
    Magic -11
    Hornets -6
    Pacers -5.5
    Nets -11
    Hornets -6
    Grizzlies -9.5
    Timberwolves -2
    Nuggets -3
    Knicks -9.5
    Nets -11
    Cavaliers -3.5
    Mavericks -8
    Bucks -5
    Bulls -5.5
    Wizards 0.5
    Heat -0.5
    Cavaliers 0.5
    Bucks 0.5
    Hornets -0.5
    Heat -0.5
    Nets -6
    Knicks -5.5
    Magic -6.5
    Hawks -5
    Hornets -0.5
    Pistons 0.5
    Hawks -5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    these lines are assuming the major stars are playing on both sides

    here is a win probablity link
    http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    and IMHO HELL NO, NO F'ING WAY BUYOUT you got 6 double digit favorite games at least
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    and IMHO HELL NO, NO F'ING WAY BUYOUT you got 6 double digit favorite games at least

    I can't believe I'm about to say this.
    I agree with Danshan
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I can't believe I'm about to say this.
    I agree with Danshan

    FiveThirtyEight has an ELO model that has the 76ers finishing with 47 wins based on remaining schedule.

    With 28 games to go, that is an expectation of 18 wins and 10 losses. So lets call it a binomial with n=28, p=.643, q=.357. There is a 99.4% chance that this will exceed the 11 wins you need to cash. But this assumes each game is an independent trial.

    But this would overstate the odds because each game isn't independent. If we run it as a negative binomial with a CV of 2.0, which is a good rule of thumb that I thinks overstates injury/streak risks, it comes out to a 91.6% probability.

    If he offered me more than 91.6% of the ticket value I'd probably jump on it. Keep in mind this is 91.6% of the $13,320, not 91.65 of the $7,320.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    paddyboy where you from ??
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    FiveThirtyEight has an ELO model that has the 76ers finishing with 47 wins based on remaining schedule.

    With 28 games to go, that is an expectation of 18 wins and 10 losses. So lets call it a binomial with n=28, p=.643, q=.357. There is a 99.4% chance that this will exceed the 11 wins you need to cash. But this assumes each game is an independent trial.

    But this would overstate the odds because each game isn't independent. If we run it as a negative binomial with a CV of 2.0, which is a good rule of thumb that I thinks overstates injury/streak risks, it comes out to a 91.6% probability.

    If he offered me more than 91.6% of the ticket value I'd probably jump on it. Keep in mind this is 91.6% of the $13,320, not 91.65 of the $7,320.


    I think that is the smartest way I have ever heard someone say HELL NO KEEP THAT TICKET!
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    I have them right around 47 based on current win total, current team ranking and remaining schedule.

    Atlanta Hawks 26.62 55.38
    Boston Celtics 53.18 28.82
    Brooklyn Nets 25.32 56.68
    Charlotte Hornets 37.46 44.54
    Chicago Bulls 27.96 54.04
    Cleveland Cavaliers 50.41 31.59
    Dallas Mavericks 29.00 53.00
    Denver Nuggets 44.02 37.98
    Detroit Pistons 40.89 41.11
    Golden State Warriors 63.79 18.21
    Houston Rockets 62.08 19.92
    Indiana Pacers 43.18 38.82
    Los Angeles Clippers 43.30 38.70
    Los Angeles Lakers 33.25 48.75
    Memphis Grizzlies 27.73 54.27
    Miami Heat 44.47 37.53
    Milwaukee Bucks 46.34 35.66
    Minnesota Timberwolves 48.18 33.82
    New Orleans Pelicans 42.70 39.30
    New York Knickerbockers 29.35 52.65
    Oklahoma City Thunder 45.83 36.17
    Orlando Magic 26.58 55.42
    Philadelphia 76ers 46.95 35.05
    Phoenix Suns 23.44 58.56
    Portland Trail Blazers 45.45 36.55
    Sacramento Kings 26.25 55.75
    San Antonio Spurs 48.50 33.50
    Toronto Raptors 58.48 23.52
    Utah Jazz 43.27 38.73
    Washington Wizards 46.05 35.95
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    The biggest consideration is probably if you are going to be able to make these kind of bets with the book in the future. Because if you don't take the deal. probably not. But your chances are probably not that good anyway considering they are trying to cut a deal.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    paddyboy where you from ??

    Bronx originally now in Hoboken. Lifelong Jets fan.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    Bronx me to , riverdale boy , now live in the highest property taxed county in these united states , last time i checked.
    Do you go to jets games ????
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    Bronx me to , riverdale boy , now live in the highest property taxed county in these united states , last time i checked.
    Do you go to jets games ????

    Must be Westchester. I can barely watch Jets on TV with my toddlers. I was from Woodlawn but bussed to Riverdale for grade school at Fieldston.
  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    Not from a math side here but the 76ers schedule is very favorable for you hitting your original bet. Lot of tanking teams down the stretch.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    paddy ,not cheap where you are either , kinda waiting and seeing where my son goes after college but am sure am heading to F L A
    My taxes alone are 17 grand a year.
    If you dont mind me asking , whats your math background, no need to answer if you dont want , it looks like you know what your talking about , had a few guy s here trying to put my models together , i basically do it all on paper. They werent sport guys and hard to explain to them what the hell i wanted.
  • burgerburger Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    Thank you all so much.

    I appreciate it.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    paddy ,not cheap where you are either , kinda waiting and seeing where my son goes after college but am sure am heading to F L A

    You sure you wanna do that? As a Philly suburbs guy who moved down here 18 years ago, I can tell you there's a lot to adjust to in terms of people, weather, tourists, etc. when you're used to living near a big city in the northeast. Plenty of positives too, and where in FL you move obviously makes a difference, just sayin...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    goats, i go down to Fla about twice a year, my brother in law lives in ft lauderdale who owns a two bedroom condo and a home all in the same complex..he primarily lives in home and rents condo out jan , feb and march and has offered me the condo once am ready to move, son still in college in jersey a soph. Once down in fla we travel around and do something different , down to the keys for a couple days , or we take ride to one of my favorite places, sarasota ,love it there but i think its pretty expensive. Listen if i can deal with new yorkers am sure i can handle transplanted new yorks in fla . Thanks for comments .
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    paddy ,not cheap where you are either , kinda waiting and seeing where my son goes after college but am sure am heading to F L A
    My taxes alone are 17 grand a year.
    If you dont mind me asking , whats your math background, no need to answer if you dont want , it looks like you know what your talking about , had a few guy s here trying to put my models together , i basically do it all on paper. They werent sport guys and hard to explain to them what the hell i wanted.

    I have a Math degree and do a fair amount of modeling as part of my work so I have access to software. I use a programming language called R that is free and learnable to run data. Busy with kids running around the house so I find it very difficult to dedicate the quiet time to do modeling - I've been working on an extremely niche project for like 9 months now that is beautiful and novel that I'm excited about (Over/Under on MLB starter's strikeouts), but it should have taken a couple months and now I'm wondering if I can finish in time for the start of the season. I'd encourage you to reach out to the Data Science program of a University in the city. Hugely growing field and would be a dream job for some kid to code your stuff for $20 an hour. There's alot out there in terms of data scraping off the internet and machine learning algorithms that entry level people know how to do and you will be able to exploit even if you are paper based now.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    Any suggestions on how to reach out ?

    thanks for advise
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    Any suggestions on how to reach out ?

    thanks for advise

    Columbia has a guy karl.sigmanATcolumbia.edu who runs a Center for Applied Probability. Email him and tell him the truth, you are looking for a student to work with you to automate and improve your handicapping models. Part time 5-10 hours a week fully flexible to the student's schedule lasting until the end of the term. You need someone with elementary ability at R, Python, or an equivalent language and data scraping skills with an interest in sports is a plus. Ask him if he can recommend someone or alternatively if you could post something on the bulletin board in their Statistics or Math department. I bet you this would work out. If it doesn't repeat with the head of Undergraduate Statistics at Stern School of Business, head of "Mathematics and Computer Science" at NYU, and head of Mathematics department at PACE, in that order. Good luck!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2018
    holly shit paddy, thanks a lot for your help , ill let you know how i make out.
    good luck with the children , my niece just had a baby boy today, close to you, jersey city

    thanks again
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