Betting Talk

nba 17/18

16791112

Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    558 tor -7

    luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I cant believe that mess of a game, it literally looked like a WWE event like it was staged to be close. I mean it was crazy stupid ass Toronto if you cant beat a wore out team with only 1 player at home after some rest, you are shit out of luck OR it was just a bullshit game and they will win in 6
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    am not worried about it, missing 16 of last 19 shots ,is not going to help my bottom line
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    and for tonight if i can get 11.5 its a play
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    jets can you sneak over to my mlb pick line and look at my lines for tomorrows games and give me some advice or anything you see please
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    i would but dont do my lines to the lineups come out...sorry
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    oh ok thanks anyway
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    514 n.o +5

    luck
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    516 uta +5

    luck
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    703 tor +4.5 -115 bo

    luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    thanks got 4.5 at BOL, I think 4.5 is a giveaway, not sure what is going on in this series but 4.5 is way way too much, good pick Jets!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    i have clev much less but it seems they have the raptors number , a good number means nothing if the cavs got in the raptors head , find out soon enough
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    been quiet a couple days what are you thinking, I got Hou and GS -9.5 looks like to me might be a dog party to clean up on
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    nothing for today, didnt do lines for tomorrow yet
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    505 uta +12...nice number ill take it.

    luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I firmly agree, thanks for the pick!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I got Celtics -3 what you do you have?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    sorry I put - I meant +3
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I took Philly moneyline at +105
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    bost at +1.5 was a tremendous number when it opened .
    my number on tonights game is bos -1.98.

    no play yet
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I have philly -3 lets see what it does
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Gonna take this right now , its a nice number for me.

    732 hou -1.5

    luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I got the Rockets -2.5
    I got Celtics -1
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I am taking Boston over 203, I got 206.5 for that game
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    you still feeling Rockets -1.5, I got them at -2.5 and usually a point is not enough for me to bet but, thin pickings, you got any get me to the window pep talk for it?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    you still feeling Rockets -1.5, I got them at -2.5 and usually a point is not enough for me to bet but, thin pickings, you got any get me to the window pep talk for it?

    I didn't say I had rockets -1.5...my number is higher
    Your pep talk is right here ,looking right at you,open your eyes.
    I've been betting playoffs with a one point var and I think am kicking ass doing so..
    Good luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    OK, LOL bet is in, I just made it Rockets -1.5, thanks Jets, all your help is appreciated.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    I didn't say I had rockets -1.5...my number is higher
    Your pep talk is right here ,looking right at you,open your eyes.
    I've been betting playoffs with a one point var and I think am kicking ass doing so..
    Good luck

    I wanted to register my opinion here, just for the record — hope this isn’t obnoxiously inappropriate. I wanted to put in this opinion before the game so I can eat my words if I am wrong and not be a Monday morning quarterback if I am right. This seems like a case where the numbers aren’t adequate to predict the outcome of the game.

    I believe both teams understand the importance of this first game, so, especially the Warriors, should not be strolling in with an intent to lollygag their way through the contest,

    What this means to me is that the Rockets have 1 possible scenario for winning — which is, they get way far ahead, and stay that way. If the game is close at all, the Rockets’ sphincters will tighten and their 3-pointers will fade off, and they will then need to lean on Chris Paul for some dependable 2-point scoring, which won’t be adequate. Even the Warriors’ sphincters might tighten to the point where their 3-pointers also fade off, but the Warriors have plenty of plan B 2-point options available if their 3-pointers are failing.

    So Warriors win in 2 out of 3 possible scenarios: 1) they outright kick the Rockets asses 2) the game is close and the Rockets’ sphincters tighten, and the Warriors seize a win from that, as opposed to 3) the Rockets outright kick the Warriors’ asses.

    I don’t think the numbers have completely failed to predict the outcome of this game. But when I look at them I simply see a generalization I agree with, that the game will be close. But that scenario is scenario number 2 above and I really can’t see the Rockets winning in that scenario...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    SO , that being said, what do you feel is a fair line ? my model is stats based , everything else really doesn't concern me.
    Do you make your own lines ?
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    SO , that being said, what do you feel is a fair line ? my model is stats based , everything else really doesn't concern me.
    Do you make your own lines ?

    No, I don’t make lines. I think whatever time I spent making lines would be wasted because I would never be able to make better lines than guys like you (and other guys who might be even better than you). And in this case my line, which is really just the standard line adjusted according to my arguments above, probably wouldn’t work either — Warriors -2.5.

    That’s where I am probably inappropriate — I am submitting an opinion that doesn't concern you, in your own thread!

    But I guess I have this feeling that there is something missing in the standard methods used to construct lines, and I keep wondering if there might be some new tweak to get another step up on making accurate predictions. If that was possible, it might then concern you...
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