Betting Talk

nba 17/18

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I think most people with or without models have the Rockets as very slight favorites to win this game, They are at home, were a higher seed and got star power not near the Warrior star power but star power BUT I dont adjust my model according to most of those things, if I cant give something a value like the team getting scared late and choking I cant use that in a model. I avoid adjusting for factors I personally dont know how to factor and if I think a game has those factors I will just skip it, I dont think this game has those factors, that is my 12 cents on this
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Yeah I guess what I wondering is if we might be giving up too soon at finding some way to accurately quantify things like choking, or in the case of Toronto, Lebron-in-their-heads syndrome...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    step one would be quantifying it and then tracking it, once we track it and we can get the data we can start giving it value. I do believe in the blowout scenario changing the line and I dont know how to calculate it
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    i think your wrong on the blowout theory, how much you really think they are going to change a line ....remember they want an equal amount of money on each side or close to it , they dont want pushes. They have very good data on where the money is coming from and on who.
    I've mentioned many times that a very good friend of mine is sportsbook manager in vegas , i learned a lot from him .
    Danshan and i really like your post #272 .
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    the thing is I thing public money and some nerf sharp wanna be's (maybe me, LOL, JK) when they see the Cavaliers just blew out the Raptors at home as dogs, they will see a more than it should be jump the next game but I dont know how to quantify or prove that so its just what I have seen from my daily NBA bets, when something out of whack happens people JUMP both feet in on that trend and I think that can bump a line. I spoke to Joseph B about it and he agreed, he thought it was connected to the super favorite adjustment in a way.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    rook , i love your questions , its not that am not concerned with them , am not concerned with them when it concerns my lines.

    My lines are self leveling in a way. I've been working on this for years , guys from the old SSB days kinda helped me out a lot with this. Guys like OT and Goats and few other from here know them as well. DREAMER, COMPUTERPICKS,HOWARD KELLY AND ED , is that ED from here ??? they all helped in building this model in a way.
    Am looking for a var of less then 3 , 2 is very good and 1 is great. During the reg season when my lines aren't as good , its because of mostly injuries , I decided to not worry about games with multiple injuries to both teams , or even 1 for that matter, I DO ,know how to adjust them but even if am close , say adjust 2 pts for griffin of det or 2 pts for paul of hous, if am off slightly its going to affect my line, so if a star or 2nd tier player is out and my lines are off by 3 or more ill just pass the game, i also wait just before 7 pm et to bet them to get the most updated info on whos in and whos out, sometime it works, sometimes it doesnt. Danshan , no CLV for me waiting to the last sec, does that make me a long time losing handicapper?

    Playoffs are another animal , am getting a full season of stats ,numbers are right on ....and when they are off ,i assume some of those things you were talking about might affect the line, am not worried about it,if there is value to it ,my line will find it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I asked some "smart" people that same question about last minute and the obvious that there wont be CLV but the bet has projected value. The answer was if your projected value is real and the 2 ways to know if a projected value is real is by, A CLV return or your win% over a large sample size is better than the closing line win percentage and above the margin. So 2 options to know if you are an expert or lucky.
    1 See CLV above the margin consistently on a smaller sample size.
    2 Have a larger sample size with a higher consistent win% .
    I listened to you about a week ago and i started taking last second bets which I modeled had value but obviously it was too late or they had not moved at all and there would more than likely not be much movement and the results to this point are very optimistic. CLV sucks, its getting margin killed but the win% is slightly above the closing win%, now of course the sample size is tiny and the results without decent sample size mean nothing but as you know I track everything and will know this with time.
    and your explanation of playoffs shows I dont know shit and I consider my NBA model a very good model could have only done so much better at the end of the season and I quit for god knows what reason. I call that a rookie mistake and I surely wont do that again next year!
    Again Jets thanks for all the info and chatting, you have taught me tons and I appreciate it!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Ask the host for my email address
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I asked if you want to chat we can chat on the live chat window here on the forum, I will go over there now
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    did you bet that over at 203 when I told you I was betting it?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Sorry i didnt
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    and really that was a bad number for an over bet this season...2nd half of season .500 .....playoffs very good over bet...
    Good luck ...hey you have 1.5 pts of value as well
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yeah and I bet it keeps going up!
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    rook , i love your questions , its not that am not concerned with them , am not concerned with them when it concerns my lines.

    My lines are self leveling in a way. I've been working on this for years , guys from the old SSB days kinda helped me out a lot with this. Guys like OT and Goats and few other from here know them as well. DREAMER, COMPUTERPICKS,HOWARD KELLY AND ED , is that ED from here ??? they all helped in building this model in a way.
    Am looking for a var of less then 3 , 2 is very good and 1 is great. During the reg season when my lines aren't as good , its because of mostly injuries , I decided to not worry about games with multiple injuries to both teams , or even 1 for that matter, I DO ,know how to adjust them but even if am close , say adjust 2 pts for griffin of det or 2 pts for paul of hous, if am off slightly its going to affect my line, so if a star or 2nd tier player is out and my lines are off by 3 or more ill just pass the game, i also wait just before 7 pm et to bet them to get the most updated info on whos in and whos out, sometime it works, sometimes it doesnt. Danshan , no CLV for me waiting to the last sec, does that make me a long time losing handicapper?

    Playoffs are another animal , am getting a full season of stats ,numbers are right on ....and when they are off ,i assume some of those things you were talking about might affect the line, am not worried about it,if there is value to it ,my line will find it.

    Heh! Sorry to bust into your thread jets96! I was suddenly overwhelmed by a flood of passion over how tomorrow’s game will go down, and still a bit disillusioned over how the books kept showing the Seventysixers as favorites the entire time they were gentleman-swept by the Celtics. At any rate I echo danshan and appreciate greatly your sharing of information. Luck!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    super simple and basic

    Team A power ranking 92
    Team B power ranking 87
    Home 3 points
    A at B
    92-87=+5 B at home -3 =+2
    line is 2 subtract injuries and rest and that is it
    playoffs usually same rest so not much there and injuries vary so much
    so in that scenarion the line would basically be +2 every single time they play until A the powerrankings change and they dont change very much for 1 or 2 games results
    so if B beat A 3 times in a row the last game
    the power ranking might change slightly but the line would still be very close to +2 as you evidenced in the 76ers celtics series, that is a perfect example of this scenario.
    right now this moment
    more negative is better for my rankings I have the
    76ers at -8
    Celtics -.74
    so even though the Celtics won and won if they played today I would make the 76ers the fave.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    super simple and basic

    Team A power ranking 92
    Team B power ranking 87
    Home 3 points
    A at B
    92-87=+5 B at home -3 =+2
    line is 2 subtract injuries and rest and that is it
    playoffs usually same rest so not much there and injuries vary so much
    so in that scenarion the line would basically be +2 every single time they play until A the powerrankings change and they dont change very much for 1 or 2 games results
    so if B beat A 3 times in a row the last game
    the power ranking might change slightly but the line would still be very close to +2 as you evidenced in the 76ers celtics series, that is a perfect example of this scenario.
    right now this moment
    more negative is better for my rankings I have the
    76ers at -8
    Celtics -.74
    so even though the Celtics won and won if they played today I would make the 76ers the fave.

    Thanks for the concrete example danshan. It shows pretty clearly how, over time, this system would prevail, as the power rankings adjust.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Jets, I got to take the Celtics at +1.5, what do you have the Celtics at? I have Celtics -1

    I took them 115 ML and +1.5 -105
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    rook bust in all you want , am not a thread snob ...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I have bos -3.68 NO PLAY though when 3 or more pts off the close this playoffs am 17-12 58% and even though thats great , it was only 46 % this season . Thats why i need a var of less then 3
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I am not sure what I am missing on the game because the line looks pretty standard, no weird variance but I have been light on Cavs all year.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I dont think your missing anything , they knew they were going to get cavs money , you might have a better line then me....luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    if it hits 7 I am taking Boston
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    501 gsw +2

    luck
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    thoughts on Boston I got +5 and will bet at +7
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    am doing it right now....brb
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    still have bost slight fav ...i have to start looking at a way to figure series price using my lines, dont know what it was for bos/clev but I had bos clear fav at home and very slightly on the road for game 3.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yeah I got Cleveland +5 this game and I am usually a 1 or 2 off on Cavs because they get so much lets call it dumb money.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    right exactly , you have value with boston anyway you look at it...i need more then value though , i need it closer to my line
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I got to take the Rockets at +7, what the heck am I missing, I got GS -1.5 and 224. I am betting Rockets +7 now before it starts dropping
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I have gsw almost exactly what you have to tell you the truth ...no play for me...3 or more off my line in playoffs are now 19-12 fwiw
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