Betting Talk

- Soccer 2017/2018 Season -

Obi OneObi One Senior Member
edited August 2018 in Sports Betting
The different leagues are starting up in Europe as we work towards the World Cup in Russia next summer. In this thread you'll find system plays, model plays and also very simple observational analysis. I watch about 3 to 4 games per day. On saturdays and sundays this can climb to 6 to 8 games.

If you decide to tail, please do understand that soccer is a high variance game. Make sure you have good bankroll skills. I might have 20 plays in a single day as automation and modeling allows me to cover more leagues. Please adjust your unit size accordingly. All plays posted are 'to win 1 unit'.

Team A at -190 = 1.90 units risk to win 1.00 unit
Team B at +250 = 0.40 unit to win 1.00 unit
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Comments

  • OddsCloserOddsCloser Junior Member
    edited August 2017
    Do you have a record for the club season last year? Could not find one in the old thread and just curious. Looking for someone good to follow in club soccer, thanks and GL!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Premier League , England:
    - Arsenal/ Leicester City U3 -114

    Ligue 1, France:
    - Olympique Lyon +100
    - Nice/ Troyes U2.5 -107
    - Nice/ Troyes draw +319

    Eredivisie, Netherlands:
    - FC Utrecht +134
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    OddsCloser wrote: »
    Do you have a record for the club season last year? Could not find one in the old thread and just curious. Looking for someone good to follow in club soccer, thanks and GL!

    I have not calculated the end result of what I posted last year. A rough guess would be anywhere between -10 and +10 units. My 2014 World Cup thread did about 15 units, and in the 2015 soccer thread you'll find +60 units. My 2016 Thread with the Euro 2016 plays in it had Portugal as the eventual winner at +1800 and also ended positive.

    It's only this year that I've started modeling and been studying a lot of the research on 'soccermetrics'. I also got my coaching license 'D' this summer and will do the 'C' course in autumn. So while most people watch the ball, I'm watching formations and tactical decisions by the coaches. So yes, I expect to have a positive return at the end of the year.
  • OddsCloserOddsCloser Junior Member
    edited August 2017
    Sounds good, I will be following along.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Saturday 12/8

    Premier League, UK:
    Watford +1 -114
    Swansea City +1 -119
    Manchester City/ Liverpool parlay +115

    Championship, UK:
    Brentford -124
    Leeds United +103
    Millwall +100

    France League 1:
    Nantes 1H PK +113
    Amiens PK +103
    St. Etienne/ Caen draw +214
    Lille +105 (sunday)

    Eredivisie, Netherlands:
    AZ Alkmaar +1 +130
    Heracles +1.5 -116
    Vitesse -163
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Champions League Qualifiers:
    Sevilla +131

    Europa League Qualifiers:
    FC Utrecht +1 -133
    Rosenborg +1.5 -105
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Upcoming weekend:

    Eredivisie, Holland:
    Vitesse -106
    Groningen +2 -136
    Utrecht -1 -108

    Premier League, UK:
    Southampton -145
    Arsenal -119
    West Brom PK +121
    Tottenham +105

    Championship, UK:
    Ipswich Town +160
    Bristol -110

    Ligue 1, France:
    Troyes PK -123
    Olympique Lyon -156
    Lille -156

    Bundesliga, Germany:
    Hoffenheim -122

    might be more adds later.....
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Spain, La Liga:
    Sevilla -156
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Spain, La Liga:
    Real Betis +2 -112

    Barcelona is in a transitional phase right now. Newly appointed head coach Ernesto Valverde is working hard to implement his tactical system. Just like with Pep Guardiola's Barcelona, this system is based on positional play. There's less room for free-wheeling, as was customary under Luis Enrique in the last 3 years. The 2 matches against Real Madrid have shown that Barcelona isn't comfortable in the new system yet. With Luis Suarez injured and Neymar just recently traded, Barcelona is missing a whole lot of creativity and finishing up top.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Already underdogs of +340, +420 and +700 that have won outright. To be safe I played those on the handicap, but nice to have plays that are never in doubt. Adding a few more plays here for this weekend:

    Italy, Serie A:
    AC Milan -1 +106

    Premier League, UK:
    Manchester City/ Everton U3 -110

    La Liga, Spain:
    Deportivo Alaves +0.5 -126
    Valencia -120
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    ytd record: 18-18-4 for -1.46 units

    Champions League Qualifiers 2nd legs:
    Sevilla/ Istanbul Basaksehir O3 +101
    Nice +0.5 +108

    England EFL Cup:
    Leicester City -138
    Millwall +224
    Swansea City -141

    England Premier League:
    Watford -110
    Manchester City -286

    France, Ligue 1:
    St. Etienne +2.5 +114

    More to follow
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Continuing for weekend of 25-27 of august:

    France, Ligue 1:
    Nice +136
    Metz/ Caen U2.5
    Dijon/ Montpellier O2.5 +114
    Nantes +0.5 -123
    Strasbourg/ EA Guingamp draw +245

    Germany, Bundesliga:
    Borussia Dortmund -1.5 +106
    Eintracht Frankfurt +137
    Schalke +122

    Italy, Serie A:
    Inter Milan PK +114
    AC Milan -1.5 -146
    Napoli -1 -144

    please note that you don't have to commit to all games at once. These games are over multiple days.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    England, Championship:
    Fulham +130
    Birmingham City +117
    Cardiff City -126
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    WC Qualifiers 31 august:

    France -144

    World Cup 2018 Futures:

    Germany +500 (to win 3 units)
    Belgium +1400 (to win 2 units)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    With 5 plays pending, adding these for sunday:

    Premier League, UK:
    Chelsea/ Everton U2.5 -104
    Liverpool +114
    Burnley +1.75 -106

    Netherlands, Eredivisie:
    Feyenoord -2 -102
    VVV +1 +114
    FC Utrecht PK -116
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Weekend results: 16-12 for +5.59 units
    ytd: 34-30-4 for +4.13 units

    World Cup Qualifiers up next, there will be no club soccer in Europe till friday the 8th of september.
    Only France -144 over The Netherlands pending.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    World Cup Qualifiers:
    Africa Region:
    Nigeria -107
    Morocco -148

    Europe:
    Germany -1.25 -104
    Poland +216
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Italy +0.75 -111
    Austria +0.25 +101
    Croatia -3.5 -123
    Belgium/ Greece draw +264 (risking 0.38 to win 1.00, quick reminder for those that have not read my first post in this thread)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Africa Federation
    Senegal/Burkina Faso O2 -103
    Morocco +106

    European Federation
    Wales -1.5 +103
    Iceland PK -112
    Croatia +123
    Finland/ Kosovo U2.25 -110

    PS:
    Going to start using the European books for my soccer plays. They simply have more betting options and they open the lines a lot earlier. Bookmaker/ 5Dimes and Pinnacle wait for William Hill and Bet365 openers before they jump into the markets (a couple of days! later). The games of the 5 big leagues for the upcoming weekend have been available at Bet365 and WH for more than a week already, while Bookmaker just opened their markets yesterday. I will do my best to post plays that are as accessible as possible, so everybody can tail at the same numbers.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Pinny copies SBObet, so if they aren't up they won't post.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Are these World Cup matches? If so, why don't you call them that? Why not list the date/time of matches? For us futbol novices I'm saying.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Lancer wrote: »
    Are these World Cup matches? If so, why don't you call them that? Why not list the date/time of matches? For us futbol novices I'm saying.

    I'm sorry for the vagueness. Please use http://int.soccerway.com/ for the upcoming schedule.
    The games posted are World Cup 2018 Qualifying matches.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2017
    Lancer wrote: »
    Are these World Cup matches? If so, why don't you call them that? Why not list the date/time of matches? For us futbol novices I'm saying.

    See Post #18. They're all listed under the header "World Cup Qualifiers" and he then broke them down by confederation (part of the world) which is a natural thing to do. I understand there's a learning curve if you're unfamiliar with soccer but also please understand Obi would be going out of his way to be even more specific (which is up to him).

    EDIT: As an aside, I am thankful he refrains from jinxing the US like another soccer poster and BT employee I know.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Goats wrote: »
    EDIT: As an aside, I am thankful he refrains from jinxing the US like another soccer poster and BT employee I know.

    Shots fired Tommy! :laughing:

    Qualification results: 7-8 for +0.03 units
    ytd: 41-38-4 for +4.16 units

    One more round of World Cup Qualifiers to go in the first week of October before most participants in Russia 2018 will be know. I say 'most' because there will be some playoffs between the teams that finished nr.2 in their poule. These playoffs will be in the beginning of December I believe. Here are my current top 10 teams for Russia 2018. The list may change come June 14th of 2018:

    1 Germany
    2 Spain
    3 France
    4 Brazil
    5 Belgium
    6 Portugal
    7 Colombia
    8 Argentina
    9 Uruguay
    10 Italy
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Back to the leagues!

    France, Ligue 1 (Friday 8th):
    Bordeaux PK +110
    PSG -2.5 -119
    Metz/ PSG Both Teams To Score (=BTTS) NO -134

    Premier League, England (Saturday 9th):
    Liverpool +0.5 +101
    Everton +269
    Everton/ Tottenham Hotspur U2.5 -118
    Watford +0.75 -100
    Manchester United -1 -117
    Arsenal/ Bournemouth U3.25 -103
    Burnley +132 (10 sept)

    Championship, England:
    Queens Park Rangers +100
    Fulham/ Cardiff City O2.5 -137
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Obi One wrote: »
    Shots fired Tommy! :laughing:

    Qualification results: 7-8 for +0.03 units
    ytd: 41-38-4 for +4.16 units

    One more round of World Cup Qualifiers to go in the first week of October before most participants in Russia 2018 will be know. I say 'most' because there will be some playoffs between the teams that finished nr.2 in their poule. These playoffs will be in the beginning of December I believe. Here are my current top 10 teams for Russia 2018. The list may change come June 14th of 2018:

    1 Germany
    2 Spain
    3 France
    4 Brazil
    5 Belgium
    6 Portugal
    7 Colombia
    8 Argentina
    9 Uruguay
    10 Italy

    Looking forward to qualifying being over, even if that means no good betting for a while. CONEMBOL is brutal, too stressful for me. I have Brazil as a favorite vs Spain and France at the moment. Argentina still getting way too much respect from the betting market IMO, but I don't even know where to put them.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Thx Obi Wan!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited September 2017
    durito wrote: »
    Looking forward to qualifying being over, even if that means no good betting for a while. CONEMBOL is brutal, too stressful for me.

    Same here. I told Goats yesterday that I wasn't looking forward to our game at all (and I think the two hours last night took about 6 months off my life). And we might even get the chance to have two extra high stakes games against Syria/Australia where my blood pressure can rise even more.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2017
    Obi One wrote: »
    Shots fired Tommy! :laughing:

    Now if the US doesn't beat Panama next month, Tommy is absolved and retains the right to blame me for rest of eternity as I will be attending that match, my first ever USMNT match in person.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Obi One wrote: »
    Back to the leagues!

    France, Ligue 1 (Friday 8th):
    Bordeaux PK +110
    PSG -2.5 -119
    Metz/ PSG Both Teams To Score (=BTTS) NO -134

    PSG defenders can go screw themselves.
    3 consecutive mistakes allows THE worst team in Ligue 1 to score just their 2nd goal in 5 games. Ugh!
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