1. #1
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    Default - Soccer 2017/2018 Season -

    The different leagues are starting up in Europe as we work towards the World Cup in Russia next summer. In this thread you'll find system plays, model plays and also very simple observational analysis. I watch about 3 to 4 games per day. On saturdays and sundays this can climb to 6 to 8 games.

    If you decide to tail, please do understand that soccer is a high variance game. Make sure you have good bankroll skills. I might have 20 plays in a single day as automation and modeling allows me to cover more leagues. Please adjust your unit size accordingly. All plays posted are 'to win 1 unit'.

    Team A at -190 = 1.90 units risk to win 1.00 unit
    Team B at +250 = 0.40 unit to win 1.00 unit

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    Do you have a record for the club season last year? Could not find one in the old thread and just curious. Looking for someone good to follow in club soccer, thanks and GL!

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    Premier League , England:
    - Arsenal/ Leicester City U3 -114

    Ligue 1, France:
    - Olympique Lyon +100
    - Nice/ Troyes U2.5 -107
    - Nice/ Troyes draw +319

    Eredivisie, Netherlands:
    - FC Utrecht +134

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    Quote Originally Posted by OddsCloser View Post
    Do you have a record for the club season last year? Could not find one in the old thread and just curious. Looking for someone good to follow in club soccer, thanks and GL!
    I have not calculated the end result of what I posted last year. A rough guess would be anywhere between -10 and +10 units. My 2014 World Cup thread did about 15 units, and in the 2015 soccer thread you'll find +60 units. My 2016 Thread with the Euro 2016 plays in it had Portugal as the eventual winner at +1800 and also ended positive.

    It's only this year that I've started modeling and been studying a lot of the research on 'soccermetrics'. I also got my coaching license 'D' this summer and will do the 'C' course in autumn. So while most people watch the ball, I'm watching formations and tactical decisions by the coaches. So yes, I expect to have a positive return at the end of the year.

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    Sounds good, I will be following along.

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    Saturday 12/8

    Premier League, UK:
    Watford +1 -114
    Swansea City +1 -119
    Manchester City/ Liverpool parlay +115

    Championship, UK:
    Brentford -124
    Leeds United +103
    Millwall +100

    France League 1:
    Nantes 1H PK +113
    Amiens PK +103
    St. Etienne/ Caen draw +214
    Lille +105 (sunday)

    Eredivisie, Netherlands:
    AZ Alkmaar +1 +130
    Heracles +1.5 -116
    Vitesse -163

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    Champions League Qualifiers:
    Sevilla +131

    Europa League Qualifiers:
    FC Utrecht +1 -133
    Rosenborg +1.5 -105

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    Upcoming weekend:

    Eredivisie, Holland:
    Vitesse -106
    Groningen +2 -136
    Utrecht -1 -108

    Premier League, UK:
    Southampton -145
    Arsenal -119
    West Brom PK +121
    Tottenham +105

    Championship, UK:
    Ipswich Town +160
    Bristol -110

    Ligue 1, France:
    Troyes PK -123
    Olympique Lyon -156
    Lille -156

    Bundesliga, Germany:
    Hoffenheim -122

    might be more adds later.....

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    Spain, La Liga:
    Sevilla -156

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    Spain, La Liga:
    Real Betis +2 -112

    Barcelona is in a transitional phase right now. Newly appointed head coach Ernesto Valverde is working hard to implement his tactical system. Just like with Pep Guardiola's Barcelona, this system is based on positional play. There's less room for free-wheeling, as was customary under Luis Enrique in the last 3 years. The 2 matches against Real Madrid have shown that Barcelona isn't comfortable in the new system yet. With Luis Suarez injured and Neymar just recently traded, Barcelona is missing a whole lot of creativity and finishing up top.

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    Already underdogs of +340, +420 and +700 that have won outright. To be safe I played those on the handicap, but nice to have plays that are never in doubt. Adding a few more plays here for this weekend:

    Italy, Serie A:
    AC Milan -1 +106

    Premier League, UK:
    Manchester City/ Everton U3 -110

    La Liga, Spain:
    Deportivo Alaves +0.5 -126
    Valencia -120

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    ytd record: 18-18-4 for -1.46 units

    Champions League Qualifiers 2nd legs:
    Sevilla/ Istanbul Basaksehir O3 +101
    Nice +0.5 +108

    England EFL Cup:
    Leicester City -138
    Millwall +224
    Swansea City -141

    England Premier League:
    Watford -110
    Manchester City -286

    France, Ligue 1:
    St. Etienne +2.5 +114

    More to follow

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    Continuing for weekend of 25-27 of august:

    France, Ligue 1:
    Nice +136
    Metz/ Caen U2.5
    Dijon/ Montpellier O2.5 +114
    Nantes +0.5 -123
    Strasbourg/ EA Guingamp draw +245

    Germany, Bundesliga:
    Borussia Dortmund -1.5 +106
    Eintracht Frankfurt +137
    Schalke +122

    Italy, Serie A:
    Inter Milan PK +114
    AC Milan -1.5 -146
    Napoli -1 -144

    please note that you don't have to commit to all games at once. These games are over multiple days.

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    England, Championship:
    Fulham +130
    Birmingham City +117
    Cardiff City -126

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    WC Qualifiers 31 august:

    France -144

    World Cup 2018 Futures:

    Germany +500 (to win 3 units)
    Belgium +1400 (to win 2 units)

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