- Soccer 2017/2018 Season -
Obi One
Senior Member
The different leagues are starting up in Europe as we work towards the World Cup in Russia next summer. In this thread you'll find system plays, model plays and also very simple observational analysis. I watch about 3 to 4 games per day. On saturdays and sundays this can climb to 6 to 8 games.
If you decide to tail, please do understand that soccer is a high variance game. Make sure you have good bankroll skills. I might have 20 plays in a single day as automation and modeling allows me to cover more leagues. Please adjust your unit size accordingly. All plays posted are 'to win 1 unit'.
Team A at -190 = 1.90 units risk to win 1.00 unit
Team B at +250 = 0.40 unit to win 1.00 unit
If you decide to tail, please do understand that soccer is a high variance game. Make sure you have good bankroll skills. I might have 20 plays in a single day as automation and modeling allows me to cover more leagues. Please adjust your unit size accordingly. All plays posted are 'to win 1 unit'.
Team A at -190 = 1.90 units risk to win 1.00 unit
Team B at +250 = 0.40 unit to win 1.00 unit
Comments
- Arsenal/ Leicester City U3 -114
Ligue 1, France:
- Olympique Lyon +100
- Nice/ Troyes U2.5 -107
- Nice/ Troyes draw +319
Eredivisie, Netherlands:
- FC Utrecht +134
I have not calculated the end result of what I posted last year. A rough guess would be anywhere between -10 and +10 units. My 2014 World Cup thread did about 15 units, and in the 2015 soccer thread you'll find +60 units. My 2016 Thread with the Euro 2016 plays in it had Portugal as the eventual winner at +1800 and also ended positive.
It's only this year that I've started modeling and been studying a lot of the research on 'soccermetrics'. I also got my coaching license 'D' this summer and will do the 'C' course in autumn. So while most people watch the ball, I'm watching formations and tactical decisions by the coaches. So yes, I expect to have a positive return at the end of the year.
Premier League, UK:
Watford +1 -114
Swansea City +1 -119
Manchester City/ Liverpool parlay +115
Championship, UK:
Brentford -124
Leeds United +103
Millwall +100
France League 1:
Nantes 1H PK +113
Amiens PK +103
St. Etienne/ Caen draw +214
Lille +105 (sunday)
Eredivisie, Netherlands:
AZ Alkmaar +1 +130
Heracles +1.5 -116
Vitesse -163
Sevilla +131
Europa League Qualifiers:
FC Utrecht +1 -133
Rosenborg +1.5 -105
Eredivisie, Holland:
Vitesse -106
Groningen +2 -136
Utrecht -1 -108
Premier League, UK:
Southampton -145
Arsenal -119
West Brom PK +121
Tottenham +105
Championship, UK:
Ipswich Town +160
Bristol -110
Ligue 1, France:
Troyes PK -123
Olympique Lyon -156
Lille -156
Bundesliga, Germany:
Hoffenheim -122
might be more adds later.....
Sevilla -156
Real Betis +2 -112
Barcelona is in a transitional phase right now. Newly appointed head coach Ernesto Valverde is working hard to implement his tactical system. Just like with Pep Guardiola's Barcelona, this system is based on positional play. There's less room for free-wheeling, as was customary under Luis Enrique in the last 3 years. The 2 matches against Real Madrid have shown that Barcelona isn't comfortable in the new system yet. With Luis Suarez injured and Neymar just recently traded, Barcelona is missing a whole lot of creativity and finishing up top.
Italy, Serie A:
AC Milan -1 +106
Premier League, UK:
Manchester City/ Everton U3 -110
La Liga, Spain:
Deportivo Alaves +0.5 -126
Valencia -120
Champions League Qualifiers 2nd legs:
Sevilla/ Istanbul Basaksehir O3 +101
Nice +0.5 +108
England EFL Cup:
Leicester City -138
Millwall +224
Swansea City -141
England Premier League:
Watford -110
Manchester City -286
France, Ligue 1:
St. Etienne +2.5 +114
More to follow
France, Ligue 1:
Nice +136
Metz/ Caen U2.5
Dijon/ Montpellier O2.5 +114
Nantes +0.5 -123
Strasbourg/ EA Guingamp draw +245
Germany, Bundesliga:
Borussia Dortmund -1.5 +106
Eintracht Frankfurt +137
Schalke +122
Italy, Serie A:
Inter Milan PK +114
AC Milan -1.5 -146
Napoli -1 -144
please note that you don't have to commit to all games at once. These games are over multiple days.
Fulham +130
Birmingham City +117
Cardiff City -126
France -144
World Cup 2018 Futures:
Germany +500 (to win 3 units)
Belgium +1400 (to win 2 units)
Premier League, UK:
Chelsea/ Everton U2.5 -104
Liverpool +114
Burnley +1.75 -106
Netherlands, Eredivisie:
Feyenoord -2 -102
VVV +1 +114
FC Utrecht PK -116
ytd: 34-30-4 for +4.13 units
World Cup Qualifiers up next, there will be no club soccer in Europe till friday the 8th of september.
Only France -144 over The Netherlands pending.
Africa Region:
Nigeria -107
Morocco -148
Europe:
Germany -1.25 -104
Poland +216
Austria +0.25 +101
Croatia -3.5 -123
Belgium/ Greece draw +264 (risking 0.38 to win 1.00, quick reminder for those that have not read my first post in this thread)
Senegal/Burkina Faso O2 -103
Morocco +106
European Federation
Wales -1.5 +103
Iceland PK -112
Croatia +123
Finland/ Kosovo U2.25 -110
PS:
Going to start using the European books for my soccer plays. They simply have more betting options and they open the lines a lot earlier. Bookmaker/ 5Dimes and Pinnacle wait for William Hill and Bet365 openers before they jump into the markets (a couple of days! later). The games of the 5 big leagues for the upcoming weekend have been available at Bet365 and WH for more than a week already, while Bookmaker just opened their markets yesterday. I will do my best to post plays that are as accessible as possible, so everybody can tail at the same numbers.
I'm sorry for the vagueness. Please use http://int.soccerway.com/ for the upcoming schedule.
The games posted are World Cup 2018 Qualifying matches.
See Post #18. They're all listed under the header "World Cup Qualifiers" and he then broke them down by confederation (part of the world) which is a natural thing to do. I understand there's a learning curve if you're unfamiliar with soccer but also please understand Obi would be going out of his way to be even more specific (which is up to him).
EDIT: As an aside, I am thankful he refrains from jinxing the US like another soccer poster and BT employee I know.
Shots fired Tommy! :laughing:
Qualification results: 7-8 for +0.03 units
ytd: 41-38-4 for +4.16 units
One more round of World Cup Qualifiers to go in the first week of October before most participants in Russia 2018 will be know. I say 'most' because there will be some playoffs between the teams that finished nr.2 in their poule. These playoffs will be in the beginning of December I believe. Here are my current top 10 teams for Russia 2018. The list may change come June 14th of 2018:
1 Germany
2 Spain
3 France
4 Brazil
5 Belgium
6 Portugal
7 Colombia
8 Argentina
9 Uruguay
10 Italy
France, Ligue 1 (Friday 8th):
Bordeaux PK +110
PSG -2.5 -119
Metz/ PSG Both Teams To Score (=BTTS) NO -134
Premier League, England (Saturday 9th):
Liverpool +0.5 +101
Everton +269
Everton/ Tottenham Hotspur U2.5 -118
Watford +0.75 -100
Manchester United -1 -117
Arsenal/ Bournemouth U3.25 -103
Burnley +132 (10 sept)
Championship, England:
Queens Park Rangers +100
Fulham/ Cardiff City O2.5 -137
Looking forward to qualifying being over, even if that means no good betting for a while. CONEMBOL is brutal, too stressful for me. I have Brazil as a favorite vs Spain and France at the moment. Argentina still getting way too much respect from the betting market IMO, but I don't even know where to put them.
Same here. I told Goats yesterday that I wasn't looking forward to our game at all (and I think the two hours last night took about 6 months off my life). And we might even get the chance to have two extra high stakes games against Syria/Australia where my blood pressure can rise even more.
Now if the US doesn't beat Panama next month, Tommy is absolved and retains the right to blame me for rest of eternity as I will be attending that match, my first ever USMNT match in person.
PSG defenders can go screw themselves.
3 consecutive mistakes allows THE worst team in Ligue 1 to score just their 2nd goal in 5 games. Ugh!