Betting Talk

Handicapping Methodologies - Mod input appreciated

BigKidBigKid Junior Member
edited September 2017 in Sports Betting
My previous query received no response within the thread entitled "Anybody ever get Dr H? He started here," so I am re-posting by beginning a new thread in hopes that it may attract some conversation.

"All you'll ever see is the output." - Obi One (in response to Dr. H's MLB capping methodologies)

I believe that this comment warrants further discussion.

I am a seasoned CBB handicapper and through the years have developed methodologies for identifying +EV opportunities. Presumably like many "Betting Talk" members, I have had good and bad years, but am constantly attempting to improve my capping methods by integrating new angles, data, etc. into my projected lines in order to stay ahead of market adaptations. While the bottom-line (a.k.a. units won) has always been (and will remain) my top priority, I have always been equally fascinated with the process itself.

I have long desired to expand into other markets (specifically CFB & MLB), and discovered this forum in hopes of learning about some of the successful processes that seasoned handicappers utilize in developing their own lines. I am not na?ve. I completely understand that wildly successful cappers/syndicates like Dr. H and RAS would be sabotaging their operations and their very livelihoods by disclosing their methodologies through a public forum. With that said, there are many sharp cappers associated with this forum who, although successful, don't influence markets (at least not nearly to the degree as Dr. H and RAS). It is from this collective group that I was hoping to learn more about how to develop solid MLB and CFB lines, but sadly, I typically see only the final product. It is not that I am unappreciative of these sharp cappers sharing their opinions, but wondering why we can't collectively use this forum as a mechanism for actually helping each other to improve our capping and line development.

This is my seminal substantive post, and welcome your input if you feel that my call for the sharing of our collective capping processes/research/etc. would do more harm than good, but I would surmise that we could learn a lot from each other. Perhaps oddsmakers do scour betting forums in order to discover the specific methodologies utilized by random cappers and then integrate those methods into opening lines, thereby theoretically reducing our edges. Yet, even if true, these oddmsakers would presumably be hamstrung in making line adjustments because the lines have to account for the entire market - and not just a select few random (or even sharp) cappers.

As an avid poker player, I rely on consistent hand history feedback from other competent and/or superior players in order to improve my game. I believe that we could all benefit from similar handicapping feedback from each other.

Perhaps this is not the forum for such endeavors, but this CBB season, I intend to share not only my CBB opinions, but also some of my methodologies for reaching those opinions. As a full time professional, I don't have the time (or inclination) to provide analysis for each and every opinion, but occasionally intend to at least identify the basic foundation from whence I arrive at my opinions. I would strongly encourage others to reply to my postings with constructive suggestions. For instance, if you feel that I have over-accounted for HCA within my line, please let me know why. My goal is to constantly adapt, and I would absolutely welcome sage advice from other seasoned CBB cappers. I am hoping that my postings will begin a trend that others may indulge.
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Comments

  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Nay.
    Many years ago a NY betting syndicate followed a trend(mlb) with justifiable rationale. They'd bet into the early #'s with an office I was quite 'familiar' with. The MLB lines were adjusted and the office bet out. The winners were substantial while the good-thing lasted. With today's technology(Twitter/forums,etc) most edge life is miniscule. IMO, it's not good business sense to give away any perceived 'secret sauce' without compensation.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Nay +1

    In the NBA there is an angle that when it came up, it was hitting at a +75% rate. Last year and this year a couple of the fraud touts, who are longing for attention, clicks and are more than happy they can finally post plays that are +EV have given the angle a lot of publicity. The result is now that bookies open the line 3 to 4 points worse.....on half plays! not even the Full Game.

    +EV = secrecy
    +EV = anonymity

    Or would you rather have $5 limits?
  • gobucks2gobucks2 Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    your best bet is to get a small group of smart like-minded friends (like your poker group) to discuss betting stuff with. doing it on a public forum, even if you could convince others to participate, is not the route you want to take.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    MLB needs to be modeled. I see no other possible way you could win at this.

    Well, I would suggest CFB/CBB also should be modeled, I'm sure you can win with good info on players/injuries, but still going to be limited without a model.
  • BigKidBigKid Junior Member
    edited August 2017
    I appreciate the advice and insight provided thus far.

    gobucks2 - I agree with your suggestion about forming a competent group to discuss markets, strategies, etc. Unfortunately, and unlike poker, I have no friends sufficiently knowledgeable about the industry with whom to talk - hence my reason for exploring a competent forum.

    durito - I completely agree that MLB, CFB, and CBB should be modeled. I have actually developed a Sim Model for CBB that works decently well, but I'm certain that it can be improved, and would value seasoned experts' opinions on the subject. Simultaneously, I think that my model (or at least its foundational elements and structure) might assist others in a semi-symbiotic nature.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    No one (that wins anyway) is going to discuss modeling techniques in public (or really in private either). Information is just too valuable too share and once you've figured something out with hard work you really don't want people copying.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    durito wrote: »
    No one (that wins anyway) is going to discuss modeling techniques in public (or really in private either). Information is just too valuable too share and once you've figured something out with hard work you really don't want people copying.

    Funny thing that's happening in soccer:
    Many stat heads and bloggers are doing it for their love of the game and for the love of the stats. When you ask (some) of them how their xG models would do against the betting line, or whether they bet on games, quitte a few have told me they don't bet at all. Was a bit surprised by this. In the same conversation you can have Ted Knutson (former Pinny, later with his own betting syndicates) talking to some really smart guys that don't even have accounts at sports books.

    But yes, totally agree with your statement.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    It's like that in every sport. There's certain gambling concepts that most stat guys never seem to be able to grasp. Most of those guys surely have way more modeling skill than I do, but none of their models would beat anything.
  • BigKidBigKid Junior Member
    edited August 2017
    I appreciate and understand your sentiments. It would seem to me, however, that the commonly cited maxim that, "two heads are better than one" would really benefit a forum comprised of competent and sophisticated members. No one can possibly tell me that they could not benefit from some modeling tips, as I don't see anyone currently breaking any books.

    With that said, it seems to me that the primary purpose of this "Betting Talk" forum is to share wager opinions sans any rationale. Would that be a fair characterization?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    BigKid wrote: »
    I appreciate and understand your sentiments. It would seem to me, however, that the commonly cited maxim that, "two heads are better than one" would really benefit a forum comprised of competent and sophisticated members.
    Agree, but in a closed forum only.

    No one can possibly tell me that they could not benefit from some modeling tips, as I don't see anyone currently breaking any books.

    General statement that has no legs. People are winning.

    With that said, it seems to me that the primary purpose of this "Betting Talk" forum is to share wager opinions sans any rationale. Would that be a fair characterization?

    No not really. It's primarily a marketing tool for RAS.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    No not really. It's primarily a marketing tool for RAS.

    Good one!


    It is a catch 22. If someone is an expert and making a living doing something, they would be wise to protect their methodology to a large degree. If they aren't, it may be hard for them to deliver something of good value.

    That said, everyone starts somewhere and you can be headed in the right direction by asking good questions to the right people.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Good one!


    It is a catch 22. If someone is an expert and making a living doing something, they would be wise to protect their methodology to a large degree. If they aren't, it may be hard for them to deliver something of good value.

    That said, everyone starts somewhere and you can be headed in the right direction by asking good questions to the right people.

    I feel like I have asked 6 billion questions and got maybe 3 good answers, 99% is abuse. I think guys come here make 100 accounts and just post up bets on different forums and if one shows any promise, they market the crap out of it and make some money being a perfect handicapper. LOL

    the old send 50000 gamblers emails with todays free pick 25000 for team A 25000 for team B
    Team A wins send those people another 12500 team A and 12500 team B
    Team B wins send those people 6250 team A 6250 team B
    repeat now you got a guy winning all the bets he gives for like 20 straight now he asks for the $499 yearly picks fee and gets tons of signups and he could not handicap his madden game against his grandma.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    It usually goes like this. Someone asks if what they are doing is likely to win. People that know what they are doing explain why it isn't. The person asking gets mad and pouts instead of learning what they are doing wrong. Most people would rather have a handout than learn how to do something. I'm happy to help people with suggestions on how to learn how to model, program, etc. But discussing the actual details of modeling sports is hugely -ev for someone that wins.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    yeah true and I think lots of people come for just any free info they can get with zero effort. I only have said ok this is my idea and you and others have said that idea sucks, I said ok and I started figuring lines and i posted a few lines asking for guidance on those lines and whether they are close or far or what closeness ratios I should be at and nothing. that is not asking for some ones formula that is saying hey I am trying to do are these close and how close should I be getting with zero replies other than some people calling me an idiot and saying all kinds of crazy things
  • BigKidBigKid Junior Member
    edited August 2017
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Good one!


    It is a catch 22. If someone is an expert and making a living doing something, they would be wise to protect their methodology to a large degree. If they aren't, it may be hard for them to deliver something of good value.

    That said, everyone starts somewhere and you can be headed in the right direction by asking good questions to the right people.

    Didn't RAS used to provide analysis along with its opinions? Out of curiosity, did you (1) discontinue providing analysis because it was limiting your handicapping time; and (2) did the provided analysis actually form the genesis of your wagers or was it more ancillary material?
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2017
    BigKid wrote: »
    Didn't RAS used to provide analysis along with its opinions? Out of curiosity, did you (1) discontinue providing analysis because it was limiting your handicapping time; and (2) did the provided analysis actually form the genesis of your wagers or was it more ancillary material?

    They really did take a lot of time, that was a big reason for stopping it. As for the second question, our handicapping has advanced a great deal since the time when write-ups were included. I don't think I hid much in them, but I had less to hide back then.
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    durito wrote: »
    It usually goes like this. Someone asks if what they are doing is likely to win. People that know what they are doing explain why it isn't. The person asking gets mad and pouts instead of learning what they are doing wrong. Most people would rather have a handout than learn how to do something. I'm happy to help people with suggestions on how to learn how to model, program, etc. But discussing the actual details of modeling sports is hugely -ev for someone that wins.

    I have spent 1000's of hours picking people's brains, reading, and trying to model things and I just have to say be prepared to put in a lot of work. Lots of frustration too at times when you think you have something. Start with something easy is my advice.

    My advice obviously isn't for durito.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    I agree with that and I put in tons of hours and at this point, I do not think I have earned the right to profit regularly yet.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    no shortcuts. work very hard and luck will go your way. God gave you instincts for a reason, it wasn't to not use them, trust your instincts.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    durito wrote: »
    MLB needs to be modeled. I see no other possible way you could win at this.

    Well, I would suggest CFB/CBB also should be modeled, I'm sure you can win with good info on players/injuries, but still going to be limited without a model.

    when your an elite handicapper it is hard to find others on your level and you find yourself carrying the group. same with tennis, it becomes a very small group, tennis players have to go to tennis hotspots just to be able to practice. where as golfers can practice anywhere.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited August 2017
    Please keep comments on-topic. Thanks.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited August 2017
    Kane, let it go. It's the internet, most people are not what they claim to be.

    From the posting rules...

    Moderators have the right to delete posts for any reason as they see fit... Please DO NOT make another post with the same content or another post asking why your post was deleted.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    I think the how to be an elite handicapper is just wait and see what i play and go balls deep the opposite!
  • BigKidBigKid Junior Member
    edited September 2017
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Good one!


    It is a catch 22. If someone is an expert and making a living doing something, they would be wise to protect their methodology to a large degree. If they aren't, it may be hard for them to deliver something of good value.

    That said, everyone starts somewhere and you can be headed in the right direction by asking good questions to the right people.

    RAS & Others -
    With respect to in-season data for use in the construction of statistical models, I find that as it pertains to CBB, I begin attaining somewhat representative numbers (adjusting for SOS) about 15-20% through the season (around 4-6 games). Do you believe that this figure is fairly representative of all major team sports (incl. MLB...around 25-30 games; and NCAAF around 2-3 games)?
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    I have spoken to a few people with models for European soccer and asked them how much soccer they watch and they barely watch any.

    I asked them about players and they didn't know any.

    I asked them what stats they looked at for individual players and they didn't take individual player stats.

    I asked them what use stats were useful from last season for a team that has at least 5 new players in their starting XI and they said it didn't matter.

    I asked them if they were profitable and they said they were.

    They have a 'machine learning' model which 'learns over time'. I don't understand what that means but clearly the output is only as good as the input and they are using obsolete data in my opinion.

    Still don't know how all that can match up.

    I use a much more basic formula to generate percentages as a teams form will dip over the season, players will get injured, ect, ect. I watch all the games from a specific league and make notes for the English Premier League.

    My logic there is that if it was simply as easy as these people say it is to make a profit surely anybody with a postgraduate maths qualification could be making a lot of money betting without ever having to watch a game with a bit of trial and error?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    I would say they are full of shit. Watch how much lines move (and what pinnacle does with limits) right around when lineups come out. The markets are definitely being driven by player level models even on the smallest of leagues.

    I've spent an absurd amount of time trying to develop the ability to originate soccer and imo you need to follow the teams very religiously, I won't say you have to watch a lot (though I certainly do), but you definitely need a good model and to know who is playing, etc.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    My experience with guys with math/stats degrees is generally they can't grasp certain gambling concepts that would make them able to produce winning models.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Durito , so are you saying that you cant win long term NOT using some sort of player driven model ?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    jets96 wrote: »
    Durito , so are you saying that you cant win long term NOT using some sort of player driven model ?

    No. Probably depends on the market. I'm saying if you are using a model that's using past stats for players are no longer on the team, you better be making adjustments for that.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    got ya , the only reason i asked is my baseball model doesnt know who is playing except the pitcher. I like those soccer guys dont have a clue who is playing and that goes for football and basketball. My model is built team first pitcher 2nd but i do weight the pitcher stats that i use more then any other.
    As of a couple of weeks ago ...and am not allowed to talk about my record if not keeping one but i started to incorporate the pitchers last two starts into my model , am not sure what a pitcher did in april may or june has anything to do with how the team is playing at this moment and how the pitcher has pitched recently and am getting better results. I think the only person that has a perfect model is H.
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