Betting Talk

Closing Line Value

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited August 2017 in Sports Betting
I was reading about closing line value and wondered if anyone can tell me if I am on the right track

I am looking at the Nationals Rockies game 7/29
Nats are -142 and looking at that line,
Roark's avg line this season is -129
Marquez's avg line this season is -106 and -122 in the last month and Marquez is really played well his last 4 games

does anyone think these things will probably drive the line more towards the rockies closer to closing time?
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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    another one is the Marlins
    on fire right now and the Reds are dead and the pitchers in this game are the same Marlins Pitcher on fire lately and Reds pitcher is getting destroyed, how can this game only be a -135, i say that will close close to -150 to -165
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I am just curious will anyone share what they made as their line today on the Phillies Braves game.

    I am thinking like -130 way better pitcher recently , Braves suck lately and especially on the road
  • edited July 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    I am just curious will anyone share what they made as their line today on the Phillies Braves game.

    I am thinking like -130 way better pitcher recently , Braves suck lately and especially on the road

    At this point just seems you are an elaborate troll. You clearly understand the concept of creating a line and then also say you just randomly make one up. My line was PHI -119.24 if there is somehow the off chance you're being serious but this charade is getting less funny each time.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I am not sure what I am saying wrong or doing wrong to get the negativity from everyone but I am truly sincere on learning and trying to understand. I have learned so much already in the month or so I have been here. whatever I am doing to draw negative thoughts about me I truly do apologize to the group as a whole.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I was thinking about the same thing on the line and I took them today and the marlins because of my playing with setting a line. I also was interested in the line on the nats because I thought the nats were getting too much credit on that line
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    and the nats line I thought would drop but I guess the nats are just so hot right now that no one is looking at the stats. I am very interested in line value but I definitely need more experience to understand it better.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Nats line I thought would get better and it did not
    Phillies line i thought would get to -120 or so and it did not
    Marlins I thought should have been -155 to -160 and it did not move much since early it stuck around -135 to -140
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Hey Enigma setting lines what kind of ROI or unit count are you at?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I got the Angels today at -117 can anyone share what they have ? I think the angels are better in nearly every category and to me I dont understand all the hype on the mound for the Jays. Guy is old and has not proven he can start pitch at this point to me. I think the line is heavily swayed by the bad performances of Angels pitcher but his last 5 starts were against some solid batting teams. Angels -117 is what I came up with and I would love to hear what others think about my line and what they see in this game
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    More Listening less talking. I had Toronto -115 from the opener -137 which IMO was a little out of line. Really should read and learn and save your BS for another forum. If you continue to read you'll see this forum has people that are on another level which can help you a great deal just by reading and understanding what they're saying.

    As for your SDQL what's the relevance of playing Atlanta when Freddie Freeman hits a Home Run or some other player is coming off a four hit game. That's 80% of the SDQL and when you read their stuff they'll use selective dates where such an occurrence has happen maybe a handful of times and looks good to the uniformed.

    Do you really buy into this crap.
    The Diamondbacks are 0-11 OU (-3.00 ppg) since May 17, 2015 after a game as a road favorite in which Paul Goldschmidt had muliple RBI.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    your sdql example is exactly why 99% of sdql is crap. I look at what I think makes a good stat to decide a winner and pop those stats into sdql and check it against history to see how I would have done. Once i get something that shows some positive ROI i dig deeper and see if there is some stat I am looking at that just does not really have as much importance as I thought.

    an example is season ERA for a starter. if you would have just asked me I would have said a pitcher with a 3.4 era is very likely to do way better than a starter with 4 era and that is just not true when you look at wins to losses

    I am not sure why talking and commenting is so frowned upon. I am just trying to learn and give opinions and get feedback on my opinions. I was fairly impressed with some plays I made with setting a line yesterday and today seems just as good. I like Angels because statistically in every category they are better. The only reason Toronto has a chance in this game is because of being home. I think the line i set is -117 because the relief pitcher coming back and having thrown some good relief innings is not enough to impress me and again Angels are better in every statistical category
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Kane,

    Danshan is not the infamous JAKE or else he hadda lobotomy.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    and old timer when you say read what others are saying, where can I do that? all the posts I read are either plays with no explanation or some rude comments about me or asking if I am Tom or Ted or Scooter 3 feet or whatever dumb want to be sicily gangster shit people can come up with.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I just want to talk about plays and no one does, show me a thread where there is some knowledge on plays and I will gladly read it, the couple links and thoughts you and durito gave me I took to heart read them, thanked you and him and took them to heart.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Kane,

    Danshan is not the infamous JAKE or else he hadda lobotomy.

    Ron, the guys for real I know who he is and I mentioned it it one of his threads. dan as for write-ups that tout BS which has no meaning and is only done to impress the impressionable.

    PS: dan work on making a fair line and it will go a long way in sports betting.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    take a stat for example season YTD team walks
    does that stat say all by itself assuming everything else equal that a team will win at a higher percentage than a team with less walks?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Ron, the guys for real I know who he is and I mentioned it it one of his threads. dan as for write-ups that tout BS which has no meaning and is only done to impress the impressionable.

    PS: dan work on making a fair line and it will go a long way in sports betting.

    I want to use what I consider common baseball sense and compare that sense to BB stats using sdql to see if it holds weight. I am not sure how to set a good line. I had -320 on Dodgers yesterday and Angels -117 today and that tells me I am way off from setting a fair line. I just am struggling being any kind of consistent.
  • edited July 2017
    Stop spamming. If you want somewhere to start on how to make your own lines and approach this the right way, read The Book by Tango and Lichtman.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    and i prefer baseball between the numbers as far as books go
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I am calculating Indians at -127 what does anyone else have for them?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    I am calculating Indians at -127 what does anyone else have for them?

    Very good. How 'bout spitting out some Wednesday's #s.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    ok cool I will try that now, thanks!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Ok Blue Jays -116 on Wednesday, what do you have for them?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    Ok Blue Jays -116 on Wednesday, what do you have for them?

    Ok you're close. I got them at minus 160:oh:
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    really wow, we are talking about the game with HOlland and Happ right?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    really wow, we are talking about the game with HOlland and Happ right?

    Si senor
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    Junis was the worse pitcher Happ faced and he was only a -130, I cant see how it would get to -160, Happ avg line on the road is +110. I dont see -160 but now looking at the Junis line I could see it possibly being higher than that game but no way -160 but if you can elaborate on why I would love to hear it and really appreciate it and if there is another game you suggest I look at I would love to and thanks again
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    It's simple. Right now status not last month or last April.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    how about Rangers -131 wednesday Cashner and Miranda? I looked at this one closer
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2017
    I spent more time on this one and I hope I am closer
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