1. #46
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    I put much more value in someone who can hit 1% average CLV in a mature market than someone getting 1% on overnighters with reduced limits

    exactly

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by h82lose View Post
    also CLV will vary market to market on when the line matures. for example if your betting openers overnight with circled limits then obviously your CLV will be higher if your savy enough at picking off soft lines. When you bet into a more mature market when limits are raised or closer to game time. alot of the time the CLV will be less since line has been hit with higher limits available. just food for thought. I put much more value in someone who can hit 1% average CLV in a mature market than someone getting 1% on overnighters with reduced limits. not saying that your better or worse its just that most the money comes in when limits are opened up.
    I have been the last week making my picks after first pitch of the last game and the pinnacle limits are 4500ish when I am betting. I have not made any like BOL opener baseball picks. My issue is I lack faith in CLV as you can see I win actually better on neg CLV games at best it does not make a difference.
    Win45-out of 100 games +CLV
    win30 out of 59 games -CLV
    I went back and looked at hoops which I think I have a way way way better grasp on than baseball and I was actually slightly better at +CLV
    in the NBA
    115-102
    +CLV 79-73
    -CLV 36-29

    - - - Updated - - -

    and the WNBA I cant believe everyone does not play the openers I mean even at kickoff its 1k at most places believe me I have looked! With a few places at 2500 or so but not many its very limited

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    Most of the money/market correction comes in with the off screens put the lines up

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by h82lose View Post
    Most of the money/market correction comes in with the off screens put the lines up
    sorry I am naive to the terminology, what the heck does this mean?

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    Senior Member R40's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I have been the last week making my picks after first pitch of the last game and the pinnacle limits are 4500ish when I am betting. I have not made any like BOL opener baseball picks. My issue is I lack faith in CLV as you can see I win actually better on neg CLV games at best it does not make a difference.
    Win45-out of 100 games +CLV
    win30 out of 59 games -CLV
    I went back and looked at hoops which I think I have a way way way better grasp on than baseball and I was actually slightly better at +CLV
    in the NBA
    115-102
    +CLV 79-73
    -CLV 36-29

    - - - Updated - - -

    and the WNBA I cant believe everyone does not play the openers I mean even at kickoff its 1k at most places believe me I have looked! With a few places at 2500 or so but not many its very limited
    CLV gives you an indication in the short term of your future success. Winning with 63 games at negative CLV is an indication that you are probably not much better than a coinflip unless you have significant CLV. If you are averaging CLV of half-point on basketball, you can probably expect to break even. If more, you are probably going to be a solid winner. If you can get 1-point, back up the truck.

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    I have one simple question but also a very complicated question
    is Detroit -137 a good bet or not cause sometimes I get +CLV or-CLV or a Win or a Loss. The only way to know is with 1000 or more bets and for me that seems difficult because shit changes fast !

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I have one simple question but also a very complicated question
    is Detroit -137 a good bet or not cause sometimes I get +CLV or-CLV or a Win or a Loss. The only way to know is with 1000 or more bets and for me that seems difficult because shit changes fast !
    CLV is largely meaningless in one game. Someone here argued with me that you should not bet a game when the line is moving against you. If you are an average bettor and the line is moving opposite of what you expect, you should probably pass on the game because someone knows more than you. But if you consider yourself a winning gambler, you bet the game because by definition a winning gambler beats the market.

    Having positive CLV on a game simply means you were in line with the market and gives you some mental relief because you were on the "right side." You may have in fact been entirely on the wrong side but you at least know that if the trend continues you should come out ahead. When it doesn't, you put a hole through the wall.

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    say I had unlimited funds, how much on a typical Wednesday night middle market MLB game would I have to bet to move the line 20 cents?

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