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    I put much more value in someone who can hit 1% average CLV in a mature market than someone getting 1% on overnighters with reduced limits

    exactly

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    Quote Originally Posted by h82lose View Post
    also CLV will vary market to market on when the line matures. for example if your betting openers overnight with circled limits then obviously your CLV will be higher if your savy enough at picking off soft lines. When you bet into a more mature market when limits are raised or closer to game time. alot of the time the CLV will be less since line has been hit with higher limits available. just food for thought. I put much more value in someone who can hit 1% average CLV in a mature market than someone getting 1% on overnighters with reduced limits. not saying that your better or worse its just that most the money comes in when limits are opened up.
    I have been the last week making my picks after first pitch of the last game and the pinnacle limits are 4500ish when I am betting. I have not made any like BOL opener baseball picks. My issue is I lack faith in CLV as you can see I win actually better on neg CLV games at best it does not make a difference.
    Win45-out of 100 games +CLV
    win30 out of 59 games -CLV
    I went back and looked at hoops which I think I have a way way way better grasp on than baseball and I was actually slightly better at +CLV
    in the NBA
    115-102
    +CLV 79-73
    -CLV 36-29

    - - - Updated - - -

    and the WNBA I cant believe everyone does not play the openers I mean even at kickoff its 1k at most places believe me I have looked! With a few places at 2500 or so but not many its very limited

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    Most of the money/market correction comes in with the off screens put the lines up

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    Quote Originally Posted by h82lose View Post
    Most of the money/market correction comes in with the off screens put the lines up
    sorry I am naive to the terminology, what the heck does this mean?

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I have been the last week making my picks after first pitch of the last game and the pinnacle limits are 4500ish when I am betting. I have not made any like BOL opener baseball picks. My issue is I lack faith in CLV as you can see I win actually better on neg CLV games at best it does not make a difference.
    Win45-out of 100 games +CLV
    win30 out of 59 games -CLV
    I went back and looked at hoops which I think I have a way way way better grasp on than baseball and I was actually slightly better at +CLV
    in the NBA
    115-102
    +CLV 79-73
    -CLV 36-29

    - - - Updated - - -

    and the WNBA I cant believe everyone does not play the openers I mean even at kickoff its 1k at most places believe me I have looked! With a few places at 2500 or so but not many its very limited
    CLV gives you an indication in the short term of your future success. Winning with 63 games at negative CLV is an indication that you are probably not much better than a coinflip unless you have significant CLV. If you are averaging CLV of half-point on basketball, you can probably expect to break even. If more, you are probably going to be a solid winner. If you can get 1-point, back up the truck.

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    I have one simple question but also a very complicated question
    is Detroit -137 a good bet or not cause sometimes I get +CLV or-CLV or a Win or a Loss. The only way to know is with 1000 or more bets and for me that seems difficult because shit changes fast !

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I have one simple question but also a very complicated question
    is Detroit -137 a good bet or not cause sometimes I get +CLV or-CLV or a Win or a Loss. The only way to know is with 1000 or more bets and for me that seems difficult because shit changes fast !
    CLV is largely meaningless in one game. Someone here argued with me that you should not bet a game when the line is moving against you. If you are an average bettor and the line is moving opposite of what you expect, you should probably pass on the game because someone knows more than you. But if you consider yourself a winning gambler, you bet the game because by definition a winning gambler beats the market.

    Having positive CLV on a game simply means you were in line with the market and gives you some mental relief because you were on the "right side." You may have in fact been entirely on the wrong side but you at least know that if the trend continues you should come out ahead. When it doesn't, you put a hole through the wall.

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    say I had unlimited funds, how much on a typical Wednesday night middle market MLB game would I have to bet to move the line 20 cents?

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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    None of that has anything to do with proper kelly (fractional staking). In fact fractional kelly is optimal for dealing with all that. The OP (who posts these same questions every year on12 forums) is doing something absurd like assuming a constant unit size for a whole year.

    How are you feeling if you start with 50k, betting 1k a game and you lose 15 units, do you still want to bet 1k a game? If you aren't lowering your unit size as your roll decreases you will quickly end up with 0.


    Hi there. Could you explain the correct process then? You say its absurd to do something as a constant unit size for a whole year. Okay so lets use 20k for example to make it simple. So you are betting 1 or 2 percent per game right? So lets say you are betting 400 a game and thus 2 percent. At what point do you increase your betsize from your original 20k bankroll? And if you are betting 400 a game, what would be the next bet size? 500? Thus once you increase your bankroll from 20k to 25k, then you bet 500 per game? And if at any point it hits 20k or below, you go back to 400? Do you believe betting 1 or 2 percent is the proper amount? I know people say you should not be betting more than 3 percent of your bankroll per play and some even say 1 percent for pros. But are pros betting 1 percent of their bankroll per game only?


    Well my thoughts were if someone had a huge bankroll... let say 200k. And say they bet 1 percent or 2k a game. If they make say 20 units for the year, thats pretty good and that would be 40k profit. But yes i used the example of a constant unit. But that is always wrong? So what if someone's unit size is always that much per season regardless of what happened previously. In other words, thats not the proper way to bet? And if they were betting 2 percent or 4k per game, well 20 units would be 80k a year which is a lot.

    So its like 20k bankroll, bet 400 per game, once it hits 25k, go 500 per game. But should you be increasing your bet sizes by 100 dollar bets? Like then 600 etc? And go up 100 by 100? The other thing i thought was this. The bigger your bankroll, the higher your bet size should be. But when you start losing and your bankroll goes down, you have to decrease your bet size like in the example you gave where you say if you start with 50k and bet 1k a game and lose 15 units, do you want to continue to bet 1k a game still? The thing is aren't you then almost always going to be having to need much more wins than losses when this happens? Example you down 15 units or 15k from betting 1000 a game. Now you bet 750 a game? At what point in your 50k bankroll would you decrease your 1k bet size? Im guessing around 40k? And the thing is for you to get back to your original 50k, you would need to win more than 10 games in order to break back even. So its like you want to increase your bankroll, sure you bet x amount... but once you start losing and need to decrease your bet size, you going to have to win more than the games you lost in order to get back to 50k because your bet size is now smaller. Thus imagine you decrease your bet size to 500. If you win back 10 units, you are still down 5k when you should be down juice only. So curious what is the right play here and strategy here. Because in poker, you want to make money and increase your bankroll to play higher stakes. So in sportsbetting, the same applies right? You want to bet say 200 or 400 a game, but eventually be able to bet 1k, 2k and then 3k plus a game right? Because my thoughts were its really hard to bet sports for a living unless you are betting like at least 2k a game. Do you think 2k is probably the correct number as the minimum amount? Because making 20 units a year in sportsbetting is very hard at least thats what i think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by donny2 View Post
    Hi there. Could you explain the correct process then? You say its absurd to do something as a constant unit size for a whole year. Okay so lets use 20k for example to make it simple. So you are betting 1 or 2 percent per game right? So lets say you are betting 400 a game and thus 2 percent. At what point do you increase your betsize from your original 20k bankroll?
    ...this isn't a hard concept. 200k roll betting 4000 a game, and you lose 20k in a day and have 180k. Tomorrow you bet 3600 a game. Win 5000 and have 185k, now you bet 3700 a game. Need 5k to pay rent and loan some to a friend, now you have 180k, 3600 again. If you can't easily replace your bankroll you change your size every day/week/whatever.

    You're focusing on the small details instead of the big picture. Plenty of people win 50, 100, 200 units a year. You don't hear about them because they are crushing and need to stay a secret to continue to get action. Like the guys making 50, 100, 200 units in blackjack, they're not on the streets talking it up. The guys making millions a year in private poker games, they're not advertising it either. People who have serious edge are smart. They scale up, take on investors, bet bigger. They don't tout their picks on internet forums, which is why you don't hear about them. Work hard, get outs to bet on, and work your way up the ladder.

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    Wait so the correct thing to do is change bet size every single day? Isn't that a bit extreme? Like if you have 20k and bet 400 a game, why not wait till its 25k before you bet 500 a game. The other thing is based on what you say, aren't you going to bet like 370 or 420 etc and strange amounts doing it this way? Well in my example, im talking about this is your bankroll and you are not going to replace it etc.

    When you say people win 50, 100 and 200 units a year, what are you basing this on? You obviously don't mean flat betting right? Like imagine 20k bankroll, someone bet 400 per game and flat bets and make 50 units or 20k for the year or 100 units or 40k for the year right? That would be insane if someone could do this. So if this person bet 400 per game and bankroll increases to 25k and 30k and they increase bet size like how you mentioned, then say they are up 20k and doubled their bankroll. But they did not get from 20k to 40k flatbetting 400 a game, but increased bet size to 500, and 600 and then to 800 etc. So you would still say that person is up 100 units if going from 20k to 40k betting this way?

    Well i want to know what is the right way to bet. And also does it depend on your goals? Like if you are someone that wants to make 10 units for the season and flat bet say 200 or 400 a game, well thats what you do. But if you want to increase your bankroll so you could turn that 10k or 20k into something big, you have to increase your bet size no matter what right? Thus if you only bet 200 or 400 a game, well you really can't make more than say 25 units a year max don't you agree on this if you flat betting? The thing is, the goal is to eventually bet 1k and up etc by doing this right if someone wants to make a lot of money doing it?

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    Is this danshan's new account?

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    Quote Originally Posted by csh View Post
    Is this danshan's new account?
    Not quite. This guy posts the same queries in multiple forums yearly. He got bent outta shape when the late Danshan was boasting and throwing big #'s around. "How is it possible?" type posts.

    What I truly believe is that the late Danshan is sitting on a big pile$$.

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    Well could someone confirm if what the other guy mentioned is the correct thing to do? Thus you are suppose to change bet size everyday thus 2 percent of your bankroll per bet? That to me seems a bit extreme. I mean, i could imagine if you go from 10k to 15k, then you go from 200 to 300? Then sort of do this with like 400, 500 etc?

    Because if you are flat betting an amount whether its 200 or 500, then its basically going to be impossible to run up a huge bankroll right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by donny2 View Post
    Well could someone confirm if what the other guy mentioned is the correct thing to do? Thus you are suppose to change bet size everyday thus 2 percent of your bankroll per bet? That to me seems a bit extreme. I mean, i could imagine if you go from 10k to 15k, then you go from 200 to 300? Then sort of do this with like 400, 500 etc?

    Because if you are flat betting an amount whether its 200 or 500, then its basically going to be impossible to run up a huge bankroll right?
    The correct answer is you flat bet a specific dollar amount at 1% per bet. When you have bet hundreds of games and been a success, you decide you have an edge. If you have an edge, you start betting 2% or more. At no time do you bet 2% without an edge.

    Yes, you will vary your bets by your bankroll if you want to manage it properly. You should also eat more fruits and vegetables.

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