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    I have been reading this post and it is interesting, OP thanks for posting! I think the thing that drives me crazy is when are you good? you say CLV and I just see so many people have good CLV and get destroyed and cry variance! I hear people say just win and then I run a test with 100000 coin flips and 4 out of 10 times I would be a long term winner doing coin flips (deviations)! It is so confusing to me. I wish someone could clarify it, I read the black cat in a coal cellar and that told me that no one wins. if you are the .0000001% that can win, A its not enough for the risk involved, B its not consistent, C the books will block you. when I started thinking about it seriously I said I think its possible if you can just win a few units per sport and do tons of sports, you bet 5 grand a game and win 5 or so units per sport and you should do good overall, some sports win 6 units others lose 3 and you net + but I am not so sure about that now. I personally went back and looked at tons of my bets and tried to simulate a zillion more and I cant see where CLV makes a winner. I see the CLV connection to winning but dont see the certainty of clv being a winner. There are way easier ways to make money and lots more sure ways to do it as I see it at this point. Only thing for me is I like it, so I stay and keep trying to get better every moment!

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    You win when you collect money in the sport you bet over a long period of time
    You ll do that only if you BTC provided you are in a high liquidity and high sharp -square ratio sport.Usually any frequency above 60 65% BTC is indicative of skill,obviously depending on how much on avg you beat the closer

    danshan i think you obsess with the details and try to bring complexity where it isnt much really.Just internalize the principles first then concern urself w the details

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    Quote Originally Posted by JayJayOkocha View Post
    You win when you collect money in the sport you bet over a long period of time
    You ll do that only if you BTC provided you are in a high liquidity and high sharp -square ratio sport.Usually any frequency above 60 65% BTC is indicative of skill,obviously depending on how much on avg you beat the closer

    danshan i think you obsess with the details and try to bring complexity where it isnt much really.Just internalize the principles first then concern urself w the details
    I think what most bettors call principles are actually wives tales, and shoot I dont know them and I surely dont have a single detail really.

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    if this were wive tales i ll be homelless,and looking for a job in architeture Art Vandelay industries or something

    - - - Updated - - -

    if this were wive tales i ll be homelless,and looking for a job in architeture in Art Vandelay industries or something

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    so lets say you can find 2 or 3 baseball games a day to bet so 6 months, 180 days, 2.5 games a day bet that is 450 games bet a season, lets assume nothing changes in 2 or 3 seasons, it would take you 2 or 3 full seasons to get enough games to actually say you are a PROBABLY a winner!. That is a long time and a hell of an investment if you are not a winner, in losses to find out you are not.
    Issue 1 Market changes
    Issue 2 Rule changes
    Issue 3 Something changes
    so many guys come in have 2 or 3 good seasons and then fall off a cliff and you never hear from them again or they change their username and only a few people know who they are from the way they write!

    I also still have 1 question that I cant answer
    win or loss can be lucky right?
    can a + or - CLV be lucky too?

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    an NFL season you are talking decades

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    danshan just beat the closing number more often than not.Its unlikely if you BTCL more often than not in MLB season 300 400 games that you re lucky,cause of the vig.i would say 100-200 closing number sample is enough to get an idea.

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    I have 163 games bet so far
    and
    62.66% go my way against the line
    45.06% go my way enough to cover the margin
    my way avg 2.10
    against me -1.77%

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    thats great numbers. i deduce that you ve won money

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    and the against my way are with margin deducted

    - - - Updated - - -

    I am down 5.5 units
    77-86 winning at 47.25 and paying for 49.34

    last 20 or so its gotten ugly
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    - - - Updated - - -

    but I was killing it up until this patch

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    Thats normal variance.utterly regular believe me .Thats why many top bettors bet/model more sports than 1.I ve made 20 k bets as an example

    Just dont dwell on it,trust always the closing number provided you are not betting Uganda Ping Pong and you re not the originator e.g Haralabos when he wagered on NBA totals

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    Win45-games100 +CLV
    win30-games59 -CLV

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I have been reading this post and it is interesting, OP thanks for posting! I think the thing that drives me crazy is when are you good? you say CLV and I just see so many people have good CLV and get destroyed and cry variance! I hear people say just win and then I run a test with 100000 coin flips and 4 out of 10 times I would be a long term winner doing coin flips (deviations)! It is so confusing to me. I wish someone could clarify it, I read the black cat in a coal cellar and that told me that no one wins. if you are the .0000001% that can win, A its not enough for the risk involved, B its not consistent, C the books will block you. when I started thinking about it seriously I said I think its possible if you can just win a few units per sport and do tons of sports, you bet 5 grand a game and win 5 or so units per sport and you should do good overall, some sports win 6 units others lose 3 and you net + but I am not so sure about that now. I personally went back and looked at tons of my bets and tried to simulate a zillion more and I cant see where CLV makes a winner. I see the CLV connection to winning but dont see the certainty of clv being a winner. There are way easier ways to make money and lots more sure ways to do it as I see it at this point. Only thing for me is I like it, so I stay and keep trying to get better every moment!
    You need significant CLV. You believe the the accuracy of the betting market so not sure why you keep coming back to this CLV thing. If you have 1-point CLV, you are most assuredly going to win. The lesser your CLV, the lesser the chances.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    and the against my way are with margin deducted

    - - - Updated - - -

    I am down 5.5 units
    77-86 winning at 47.25 and paying for 49.34

    last 20 or so its gotten ugly
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    W
    L
    W
    W
    L
    L
    L

    - - - Updated - - -

    but I was killing it up until this patch
    That means the model is probably good but the luck has been bad. When the CLV is not there, you start over. In this case, you continue moving forward until you lose faith or the money runs out.

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    also CLV will vary market to market on when the line matures. for example if your betting openers overnight with circled limits then obviously your CLV will be higher if your savy enough at picking off soft lines. When you bet into a more mature market when limits are raised or closer to game time. alot of the time the CLV will be less since line has been hit with higher limits available. just food for thought. I put much more value in someone who can hit 1% average CLV in a mature market than someone getting 1% on overnighters with reduced limits. not saying that your better or worse its just that most the money comes in when limits are opened up.

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