1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by jm View Post
    It works for blackjack, it obviously works for sports.
    Are you serious or did you miss lumpy's sarcasm? Am I missing yours?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi One View Post
    Am I missing yours?
    Pretty sure it's this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackbull View Post

    Everyone has different trading methodologies, with differing projected volumes, differing projected RORs, etc...so it's impossible to give you one number and say that it's the minimum requirement. All I can tell you is that the skill that you must acquire is the ability to take a beating. And I mean both financially AND mentally. Anyone can dish out a beating; few can take one. Your process in this business has to be flawless. I have a "Sports Trading Code" that I recite every single day. It is two pages long. Keeps me focused on executing my process as perfectly as I possibly can every single day. You will find that the quality of your results can deviate from the quality of your process for longer than most can imagine or be comfortable with...and it will break most people at some point. You better have some mechanisms (including a money management process that can take a friggin' ass whoopin' for a long period of time) that can help you cope with that reality.

    (And I know durito understands this and has intimated similar musing before on this forum. I say this to try to positively affect some young sports trader perusing this forum who needs this advice as badly as I did when I was starting out.)
    Great post....Man those ass whoopings are tough

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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi One View Post
    I can't compare to way back in the 80's or 90's, or even the early 00's for that matter, but it's pretty logical that anytime a +EV angle becomes more or less public and the amount of money coming in becomes too one-sided for the bookies' liking, they'll adjust their prices. By 'public' I also mean when too many sharps are on the same angle for too long of a time. In baseball, there used to be an angle where home underdogs, that were not facing a top20 pitcher, and were not on a 3 game losing streak (or worse), were +EV. As that info became public, books adjusted and now there's not a whole lot of EV to be gotten on those MLB home underdogs. There's plenty more examples of things that 'used to be profitable'. But rules change, analytics change the betting patterns, but when used by the teams themselves, can also change the games, and thus sometimes create other angles that are profitable. It's an ever-evolving game between you and the bookies. There are so many sports, so many angles you can find, it's up to you to put in the time, have an analytical mind and use that profitably for your own bankroll.



    It's up to you to find out what works best for you. Either you automate everything or you pick a conference or division and make sure you know every team inside and out. Both would be best off course. I'm pretty good at RegSeasonWin-totals and futures in the NFL but don't think I have an edge on single game sides or totals. So I'll take the RSW bets and the future-bets and hope to make an amount on them. More and more books are offering bets on fantasy points in the NFL, so I'm going to see whether I have an edge there. I wouldn't call the NFL difficult to beat because of the tight lines. It's difficult to beat because of the huge variance in results created by turnovers, which is a mostly random occurrence. Your also continuously working with small sample sizes (16 games).

    In my opinion you could make a living with a 50K bankroll, but I advise you to prove to yourself first that you you can beat markets and produce +EV bets. That doesn't happen overnight. There are very sharp guys that might have only 10-12 bets a week, and others that have multiple sports automated with algorithms and will play 100-150 bets a week. You have to find out what works best for you.

    I watch 2 or 3 games of soccer in the afternoon and will also watch 2 or 3 games of NBA basketball in the evening. Found a couple of angles that can be exploited in live-betting, I do relatively fewer pregame bets nowadays. But all-in all over 60 hours a week in it for me.

    There are many ways to skin the cat,
    - some have models that are built on player performance
    - some look at the betting patterns and mostly base their bets on technical analysis of the betting market.
    - others play certain angles or situations which they like

    not every capper is the same. Find out what works for you before you jump in.

    Thanks for the response. Well i know there was an nfl trend where you take monday night football home underdogs where it was very profitable but i believe this was in the 80s or 90s or so. Then oddsmakers adjusted to it.

    On the regular season and futures betting, wouldn't most people lose on this due to the heavy hold percentage? Also aren't limits pretty low for season totals or futures etc. The problem is besides the high vig, you have to make the wager and then the book holds your money for the entire season etc.

    Well if you had a 50k bankroll for sportsbetting, well you shouldn't be betting more than 500-1000 per game since its recommended 1 to 2%. I believe for most professionals, 1 percent. But if you are not, then you can up it to 2 or 3 percent. But even if you up it to 2 percent and say average wager is 1k, how many units could you possibly make in a full season whether its one more or many sports etc.

    For example, you look at a guy like drhpicks and his seasons, he is doing very well. Mostly averaging 30+ units per baseball season. Now if your average bet size is 1000 dollars, then thats 30k in 6 months which is extremely good. I think anyone that can average even 10 units a season is very good if they can do this every year on average. But the thing is people are not that good so i assume most would be happy to make say 10 units a year? But if you do this, your unit size better be very high etc.

    When you say there are sharp guys who might have 10-12 bets a week, how much would they have to be betting a game though? Now if its 1k a game, say 40 bets on average a month, if they go say 23-17 on average. that would be 57% which seems to be on the higher end for most sports bettors, well that would be averaging 4.3 units a month. If its 1k per unit, thats 4300 per month which would average around 50k a year. I think 55% probably should be what most cappers hope to achieve if assuming using -110 lines? I know that almost no one hits 60 percent.

    It just seems like you need a huge bankroll in order to do this for a living. I think 50k is way too low. I think you need 100k at the minimum and i think thats still too low. Probably 150-200k is where you would feel a bit comfortable as a bankroll if you are betting 1k-2k a game. Im wondering if there are people that do this while having an average bet of 500 dollars. The only way this can be done i think would be if someone bets huge volume. And if they do this, they would need more than a 50k bankroll etc.

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    donny,

    your calculations and theory is spot on, but here's my reality:

    I've been a member of this forum since 2012 and was as square as it gets when I got here. Thanks to the discussions, pointed questions and criticism I got from older members here I learned a lot. Starting in 2014 I noticed that I had the knowledge and the discipline to be a pro bettor. I wanted to make sure that I could do it for a couple of years, without this turning out to be some variance-induced-heater I was on. I passed that test and starting in January 2017 (5 months ago) I went pro. Totally quit my other job (which I also loved btw) and focussed a 100% on betting. Starting bankroll of $50K. Used only $6K to open up multiple accounts and get about 3K of bonus money. Never went down more than $1600. Rolled the bonusses over the required 6 or 8 times. Current bankroll $72K, while I already cashed $10K. Multiple days in soccer where I went 6-0, 7-0, 6-1. Feasted on Leicester City's good form since the sacking of Raineiri, feasted on Werder Bremen's good run, PSG +400 at home vs Barcelona in the Champions League was a joke, Timberwolves 1H and then 2H fades after the ASB were automatic, as were Miami Heat spreads for a while. NBA Playoffs also went right. When you simply watch a lot of sports, understand what the stats are saying and got blessed with an analytical mind, a lot of things become automatic. Taking a light break now till august as I'm working on an expanded xG model for multiple soccer competitions.

    So yeah, your calculations are right, but this is the way I do it, and I'll keep working to improve.

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    Obi One thanks for the response.

    I assume your job you made around average salary more or less? I also assume you are playing on US books only like bookmaker, 5dimes etc?

    Yes i know about the bonuses that you speak of. But these are just signup bonuses... rarely you get reload bonuses unless of course you keep losing etc.

    About the bets you are making, im curious what is your average bet size if you don't mind me asking? So you made around 30k or so since the beginning of the year which is very nice. Im assuming you are betting 500 and under a game since you mentioned never went down more than 1600? But 6k from bonuses... so thats around 24k or so. That would be close to 50 units already profitable so im guessing its 500 minimum to 750?

    The thing is do you have a goal of how much you want to be up around this entire year? Or do you have a goal in terms of units? Do you bet more as your bankroll goes up or wait until its a lot higher. Example if your bankroll is 50k, do you increase your bet once your bankroll is 60k? Or when its a much bigger amount etc.

    But most importantly, do you think how you are doing now is sustainable though? I also am pretty sure you look at the line you got on every game you bet on compared to the closing line right? I know thats what many people say is to determine you are a winning bettor by looking to see if you are beating the closing line.

    I still think one probably has to bet at least 2000 minimum a game though if they want to make say 50k a year as that would be 25 units a year. I do know people say prop bets are the easiest to make money at but issue is limits are low and juice is high for these things. Im curious if you think that number is right as in the 2k minimum per bet if one wants to make around 50k a year. I just cant imagine someone betting 1k a game on average and even heavy volume... goal is to make 50k a year... that is 50 units a year.

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    No one bets like that. You can make 10,000 bets in a year if you try. Unit size should vary with roll. Turn that 50k into 10M. Go for it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by donny2 View Post
    Obi One thanks for the response.

    I assume your job you made around average salary more or less? I also assume you are playing on US books only like bookmaker, 5dimes etc?

    Yes i know about the bonuses that you speak of. But these are just signup bonuses... rarely you get reload bonuses unless of course you keep losing etc.

    About the bets you are making, im curious what is your average bet size if you don't mind me asking? So you made around 30k or so since the beginning of the year which is very nice. Im assuming you are betting 500 and under a game since you mentioned never went down more than 1600?
    You gotta lotta nerve asking personal questions like this without first giving him his Miranda Rights.

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    Hey Donny,

    I don't want to get into too many specifics about my private life. It's a small island I live on and we have a couple of big books here. Wouldn't be too hard for them to find out who I am. As I bet a lot of soccer, I have accounts with the EU facing books like WillHill, SBO, BWin, SKY, Bet365, Unibet, BetFred, 888Sports. Besides that I also have 5Dimes, CRIS and BOL. To be clear, I used 6K in deposits to get almost 3K in sign-up bonuses. So after loading the different accounts I had 53K as my BR. I started betting with some of the money of the 6K I had deposited and was simply careful with the bonus money as I needed to roll it over per the regulations stipulated. Different books have different rules. At one they stipulated 6x rollover, but after 3 bets the money was already into the 'cash' portion of my account no questions asked, no fuss made. Others were tricky (Mr.Ringo) and had nasty rules in the fine print. For instance 8x rollover and favorites of -135 or higher were not allowed. They even tried to scam me. I bet a team at -125 and then once I confirmed my bet, they had it at -140 (thus I was in breach of the rules). Luckily I was warned on beforehand about this trick they pull and had screenshots to prove that they were the ones that had dropped the odds. Took a while but got my money out of there....with profit lol.

    I started with $500 (1%) as my unit size, but that has varied up and down the alley, depending on the info I had and the play I made. I'm certain the quant type bettors here will strictly adhere to the (fractional) Kelly staking method. But I'm not so strict with it. When I know that the market is undervaluing a team, I have no problem to go to $2K (4%) for instance. It hasn't happened much, but look at my NBA thread: Multiple unit bets went 10-0 in the playoffs. Those were $1K bets for me. Another instance was when Golden State was playing Utah, when they played some soundbites from the huddle, right after the 1st quarter, you could hear Coach Snyder tell his players to speed up the game, get into transition, because Golden State's defense in the half court was almost impenetrable for them. As it was something that I was already thinking of as a strategy for them to create some mismatches and get some baskets, it was great to hear Snyder say it too. I got 'Q2 over 48.5' and 'over 49.5' at multiple books on the live lines. That's info that's very valuable and I have no problem betting 4% on those.

    My units have gone up, as my bankroll has grown, because I use percentages. I don't have a predetermined threshold where I increase my bet size. Things flow as my bankroll grows or shrinks. Percentages. I do not have a goal as to how many units i want to make at the end of the year. Psychologically I don't want to force myself into 'must win' situations. I think that it can lead to chase bets and it can cloud your judgment. I just want to generate as much +EV bets as possible. This should come through modeling and automation of my processes. Working on that.

    As I said before, I do think it's sustainable what I'm doing right now. After 2014, when I noticed that I had a pretty good grip on this venture. I kept at it for 2 more years before I jumped in completely. It's not like i didn't have bad runs in those 2 years. I've learned how to handle those. I do look at the opening and closing lines, I understand most line movements, but I have no problem betting contrarian when I feel my own info is more valuable. I don't bet directly into openers, but you won't find me betting 5 minutes before close easily. That will not happen many times.

    Again, you could theoriticise about what would be needed to do this full time, and you'll be making many assumptions along the way, but the most important thing is your own abilities. How smart are you, how disciplined are you? I have always been in the top 3 of my class, in middle school, high school and at the university. I read a lot. Analyzing stuff and finding the root cause of positive or negative performance comes easy for me. I put in over 60 hours per week. I love what I do.

    The discipline part came after the bad runs I had.

    Good luck!

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    Hey Obi thanks for the response. Well i was just curious if you are from the US or not.

    Yes i know about those signup bonuses as many books offer these. Im very surprised about the rollover stipulations. I have never heard of favorites of -135 or higher doesn't count toward rollover. I have heard something like favorites of -200 or -300 don't count toward rollover. -135 or higher doesn't count toward rollover wouldn't even make any sense. Isn't that book what you dealt with pretty shady then? I assume the sbr book rating is probably not very good for that book.

    The quarter totals, i have heard of those but most books doesn't seem to even offer those. Yea 500 dollar as your unit size when starting out make lot of sense. Well im surprise you dont have a win or unit goal for the entire season. I think many cappers probably would have a goal for their unit profit for the season etc.

    Well i believe if someone bets from 500-2000 a game like you mentioned, i think if someone makes 30k a year betting sports... that would be a very successful season. I mean anyone even profiting from sportsbetting is very good if they can do it in multiple years.

    But im curious how many sports bettors there are for every pro poker player. Now i know many poker players are broke, in debt etc... but i would still take a guess and say its probably 1 pro sports bettor for every 100 poker players. Also if someone has a small bankroll, lets just say $1000, thats basically impossible to make a good amount unless they hit a few big parlays to get started etc. So curious what you or others think on this.


    But thanks for your very long detailed post.

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    I bet European soccer markets exclusively so i don't look at things the same way that US sports bettors do in that they want to win 57%-60% of their bets at odds of 10/11.

    I have a betting log on this forum where you can get a taste of what my bets are: http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/sho...ision?p=902734

    The stakes are for the 10,000 challenge and this is not my main betting bank nor my style.

    I start each season with a betting bank of X and stake level stakes of 2% of this amount for the duration of the season. All my bets are quite similar as I'm not a fan of any high variance strategy. Each August I make a withdrawal from my main betting bank and start again with an amount that is higher than the X from the previous season.

    I am not a full time professional. I analyse each game in-depth and don't rely on statistical trends, I price up each event on its merits. I could live off my winnings but that is a pretty stressful way to live life as you will have some seasons that are better than others and you need to be able to plan your life, get a mortgage, know that you can pay for all the necessities. My betting allows me to live in a nicer house, buy a nicer car, go on nicer holidays. Its the cherry on top, not the whole cake.

    My betting strategy is sustainable, pro poker players in general is not. There are fewer recreational players and the average standard at all levels is getting tougher each year. Eventually it will be impossible to beat the rake for all but the very very best and others will then have to go off and get a 9-5 job which will further dry up the available funds for those that remain. If there is a formula to follow eventually enough people will just follow it and it will no longer work.

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    Hey obi one, just curious hows the betting now? Are things still going good for you?



    durito, you say its stupid to assume a constant unit the entire year. Well for example let say you start off with 20k bankroll. You wager say 400 dollars per game on average as that would be 2 percent. What does your bankroll have to be before you increase it to say 500 or 600? The moment your bankroll goes from 20k to 25k, now its time to bet 500 per game as thats 2%?


    I get what you mean with the if you have 50k bankroll and bet 1k a game and lose 15 units, you wouldnt want to bet 1 unit a game anymore. But at what point do you lower your bet size? The moment your bankroll drops 20 percent?


    The thing is im curious how do people increase their sportsbetting bankrolls as it just seems so much harder compared to poker. Because in online poker or live poker, you dont need that big of a bankroll. Someone that plays online, if you give someone a decent player 5k, that player can increase it without that big of an issue. But with sportsbetting, its like what are you going to do with 5k? I mean betting 100 a game? Because a lot of ppl who made money in poker started out with little to no bankroll and grinded up. Doing that is obviously very hard nowadays if you familiar with the poker climate. But with sportsbetting, how many people start out with 1k even and was able to build it to 10k to 50k and 100k? I think very very little since someone would have to bet beyond aggressive in order to turn that 1k sportsbetting roll into something significant. And if they are betting even 50 a game with a 1k bankroll, that has high chance of bust assuming this person cannot replenish it when betting percent of bankroll per game etc.


    Are there even people able to even do this nowdays? I mean i cant imagine some building a 100k bankroll with anything less than say 5k at the absolute minimum. And if they do, it would take a long time etc.

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    Someone with an edge and 5k can put themselves in a great spot using Kelly staking with an aggressive percent in the span of one season. This is something I see in many places all the time from people who don't have an edge and believe the deck is stacked against them. It is.

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    To further expand without being a total dick for most people who want to turn sports betting into a viable living, they are better off amassing outs and bearding for originators or groups that work with originators. It's fairly risk averse and can be pretty lucrative if you can supply a steady stream of accounts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by donny2 View Post
    Hey obi one, just curious hows the betting now? Are things still going good for you?
    It's been a struggle. I remember reading about sportsbetting (or poker) being more or less "5% winning, 90% grinding and 5% losing". I can fully attest to the 90% grinding.

    In soccer, some things went well (= Dutch League), while others I did considerably worse than last year (=Champions League). Looking to end the year positively with the World Cup. Won my NFL Fantasy league for the 2nd year in a row and will be looking to play some $500 buy-in season long leagues this year. After the World Cup I'll have about a 2 month hiatus again with only sporadic betting until NFL and soccer start up again.

    In NBA betting I did worse than last year. Usually pretty solid in NBA Playoffs, but this year on almost every play-off bet I had negative variance on shooting screwing the play. When I bet the under >>> teams shoot 60% from the field, bet the over >>> teams shoot 35% from the field. That kind of stuff on too many plays.

    Hanging in there, but bankroll has not continued to grow the way it did in my first year.

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