Betting Talk

One for Tuesday 4/18

Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
edited May 2017 in Sports Betting
#923 Texas -120
«1

Comments

  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    U know I'm on it OT
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    OT ..how are you doing , family ?? long time no hear.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    jets96 wrote: »
    OT ..how are you doing , family ?? long time no hear.

    Doing good, thanks for asking. How about you and your family?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    things are ok, could be better. Son is doing well, pitched today in relief 3.0 innings ...3 hits 4 k's no runs. I'd like to hear StevieY thoughts on this one...
    Son was a starter to last week ...he was pitching down in PA ...richie ashburn fields across street from the spectrum ...it was bottom 5th first batter bunted , son fielded the ball threw it over the first basemen head , he was so mad he pounded his first on the grass ....the manager of the team took him out of the game , that was last saturday...was supposed to have started today but was told yesterday that he wasnt mentally ready to start ...his he kidding the kid is 18 a freshman ..he was pissed ...so he now has him come out of the pen....i dont get it, tell the kid he couldve broken his hand, he wouldnt be good to know one...nope off the pen he goes...
    bases will be starting soon...after a pitcher has his 3rd start out of the way ...

    good luck
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Wednesday 4/19

    #973 Cleveland -122
    #979 San Fran -130
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    jets96 wrote: »
    things are ok, could be better. Son is doing well, pitched today in relief 3.0 innings ...3 hits 4 k's no runs. I'd like to hear StevieY thoughts on this one...
    Son was a starter to last week ...he was pitching down in PA ...richie ashburn fields across street from the spectrum ...it was bottom 5th first batter bunted , son fielded the ball threw it over the first basemen head , he was so mad he pounded his first on the grass ....the manager of the team took him out of the game , that was last saturday...was supposed to have started today but was told yesterday that he wasnt mentally ready to start ...his he kidding the kid is 18 a freshman ..he was pissed ...so he now has him come out of the pen....i dont get it, tell the kid he couldve broken his hand, he wouldnt be good to know one...nope off the pen he goes...
    bases will be starting soon...after a pitcher has his 3rd start out of the way ...

    good luck

    I agree with what your saying. The kid is trying to make a like play and sometimes shit happens. But to punish him just isn't the way.

    Be careful after the third start I think that it's seen it's better days.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Lets add one

    #953 Milwaukee +179 This time they hold on
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2017
    jets96 wrote: »
    things are ok, could be better. Son is doing well, pitched today in relief 3.0 innings ...3 hits 4 k's no runs. I'd like to hear StevieY thoughts on this one...
    Son was a starter to last week ...he was pitching down in PA ...richie ashburn fields across street from the spectrum ...it was bottom 5th first batter bunted , son fielded the ball threw it over the first basemen head , he was so mad he pounded his first on the grass ....the manager of the team took him out of the game , that was last saturday...was supposed to have started today but was told yesterday that he wasnt mentally ready to start ...his he kidding the kid is 18 a freshman ..he was pissed ...so he now has him come out of the pen....i dont get it, tell the kid he couldve broken his hand, he wouldnt be good to know one...nope off the pen he goes...
    bases will be starting soon...after a pitcher has his 3rd start out of the way ...

    good luck

    Unless he sat on the ground when he should have been backing up a base, sounds like a cop out. Tell him not to smack the ground(or anything) with your pitching hand, and be done with it.

    My college coach had simple rules. When you are on the bases, be aggressive. When you are in the field, be aggressive. Physical mistakes happen, mental mistakes shouldn't. He did not tolerate laziness or mental mistakes. If you made a mental mistake, maybe you get a mulligan unless it came after another mistake. He did not discriminate either. The year before I got there, my brother was a sophomore, there was a junior who could mash. He was drafted in the 18th rd, he didn't sign. Next year, I'm a freshman, when you get there you get the speech and you are warned. My brother tells me every year someone seems to want to test the rules, and they all lose. Well, this kid came back as a senior, 7th or 8th game of the year, hits a ground ball between short and third. 3rd baseman dives and misses it, guy sees it and starts jogging. SS backhands it on the outfield grass and throws him out. That was his last at bat of the year and he wasn't drafted again. Sounds harsh but my coach was so easy to play for. He gave you the freedom, just hustle. He wasn't one of those sprint on and off the field nuts(just don't walk), but don't be lazy.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Wednesday 4/19


    #973 Cleveland -122
    #979 San Fran -130
    #953 Milwaukee +179
    #975 Miami +140
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Ot ...thank you ...StevieY thank you for advise ...he did exactly what you said about the catcher in fall ball....as soon as i seen what you wrote , shouldve just emailed you, i called my son and read it to him....he understood and i hope it sunk in, time will tell.

    thanks again to both of you ....
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Ot , what i mean by the pitchers third start is , i need to see them get some innings in for real, i couldve made it 2 starts but the team hasnt played that many games yet for real...i couldve made it 4 starts ...what i need is a combination of games played and pitcher starts ...its iust how i set up my model.
    good luck
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Okay got it. I misunderstood.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    you're like E.F. Hutton...good luck
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Hey munson good to see ya. Good Luck to you also.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Wednesday 4/26

    #924 Texas -140 (BM)
    #923 Over 8.5 -110 Texas/Minnesota

    Lets see if I can beat the posting jinx
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Lets add

    #904 Pittsburgh +153 (5D)
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    #917 Tampa Bay +132
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    #928 Angels -135

    Recap of today Wednesday 4/26

    #924 Texas -140 (BM)
    #923 Over 8.5 -110 Texas/Minnesota
    #904 Pittsburgh +153 (5D)
    #917 Tampa Bay +132
    #928 Angels -135

    Also possible plays on Detroit and Yankees. back later if I can.
    Play,Fade or just ignore either way Good Luck
  • CirclejerkCirclejerk Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Wednesday 4/26

    #924 Texas -140 (BM)
    #923 Over 8.5 -110 Texas/Minnesota

    Lets see if I can beat the posting jinx

    I'm with you on the jinx OT, it's uncanny... Post 3 of the 6 plays you make & go 3-3 on the day & go 0-3 posted. Funny how that works some days.
    I also played #923 OV. 8.5 overnight. Good luck!
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Lets add

    #904 Pittsburgh +153 (5D)

    U know I love this play, a beautiful day and night in the Burgh, hope all is well with the class act!!
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    #928 Angels -135

    Recap of today Wednesday 4/26

    #924 Texas -140 (BM)
    #923 Over 8.5 -110 Texas/Minnesota
    #904 Pittsburgh +153 (5D)
    #917 Tampa Bay +132
    #928 Angels -135

    Also possible plays on Detroit and Yankees. back later if I can.
    Play,Fade or just ignore either way Good Luck

    OT--see you're fading the old Stoffo system under with the Min/Tex play--lol. GL
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    That is funny. Haven't even look at the stoffo plays. Things come things go. But come to thing of it maybe it's the way to go. Tell don't Old Contra I said that. lol
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    bluejake wrote: »
    U know I love this play, a beautiful day and night in the Burgh, hope all is well with the class act!!

    Always good seeing my man Jake. Hope all is well with everyone and of course hope the Buccos give the city something cheer about.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Thursday 4/27

    #955 Washington -119

    How does a relief pitcher come in with the bases loaded and proceed to throw four straight balls and walk in the winner. I didn't see it but this is the guy you bring in 10.1 inn 9H 6R 7W 9K'S So let see he was thinking I better not give this guy anything to hit so when count went 2-0 he figured I'll get this guy to chase.:wonder: 7 guys behind him let him hit the ball take something off and throw it down the middle same ending. Maybe you'll get lucky. They should have broken the game open in the 8th with bases loaded and no out. Bad teams do bad things. Okay we move on.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Adding

    #965 Yankees +157
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    #928 Angels -135

    Recap of today Wednesday 4/26

    #924 Texas -140 (BM)
    #923 Over 8.5 -110 Texas/Minnesota
    #904 Pittsburgh +153 (5D)
    #917 Tampa Bay +132
    #928 Angels -135

    Also possible plays on Detroit and Yankees. back later if I can.
    Play,Fade or just ignore either way Good Luck

    Congrats,a nice little 4-1 day with that nice BIG DOG the Burgh, I was there. Thank You for sharing your plays with the board, keep the roll going no luck on the 2037 in the Burgh yet only a 1-10,000 shot!!
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Wow, another 2-0, 6-1 last 2 days Thank You for sharing. Somebody hit my 16 run pool I run with washington, 4 weeks.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Keep this mine when Tanaka gets 5 or more days of rest.

    SU: 53-23 (1.59, 69.7%) avg line: -140.8 / 129.0 on / against: +$2,265 / -$2,520 ROI: +20.8% / -32.1%
    RL: 46-29 (0.59, 61.3%) avg line: 112.8 / -124.8 on / against: +$2,508 / -$2,919 ROI: +29.4% / -28.6%
    OU: 32-40-4 (0.66, 44.4%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$1,181 / +$449 ROI: -14.2% / +5.3%
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    I believe it's valid because in Japan they pitch once a week and I think he likes the extra rest and his numbers show that he does.

    6 days of Rest
    SU: 34-14 (1.98, 70.8%) avg line: -139.6 / 127.9 on / against: +$1,555 / -$1,702 ROI: +22.7% / -34.5%
    RL: 32-15 (1.03, 68.1%) avg line: 111.1 / -122.9 on / against: +$2,424 / -$2,702 ROI: +45.0% / -42.4%
    OU: 21-24-3 (0.74, 46.7%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$509 / +$74 ROI: -9.7% / +1.4%

    7 days of rest
    SU: 8-1 (2.33, 88.9%) avg line: -144.3 / 129.8 on / against: +$645 / -$675 ROI: +45.4% / -72.2%
    RL: 7-2 (1.50, 77.8%) avg line: -105.4 / -105.6 on / against: +$603 / -$641 ROI: +56.3% / -57.4%
    OU: 2-6-1 (0.17, 25.0%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$432 / +$370 ROI: -45.1% / +35.8%

    Tonight's win isn't in yet. He was pitching on 7 days rest.
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited April 2017
    wouldn't the handicap be more effective analyzing the actual matchup he's facing? the 1v1 matchups vs the batters etc... seems to me that overall trend capping is a thing of the past. I am all for thinking he is going to have a X% better performance than normal but capping just based on days rest seems -EV to me. Using it as part of your capping, sure.
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