Betting Talk

2017 Soccer

ebemissebemiss Senior Member
edited May 2017 in Sports Betting
4/9

EPL

Everton (ENG-P) -130
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Comments

  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    4/15

    Everton (ENG-P) -1 (-106)
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    4/15

    Houston (USA-MLS) -1 (-106)
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    2-1 (+.94)

    West Bromwich Albion (ENG-P) PK -112
    West Bromwich Albion (ENG-P) +170
    Orlando City (USA-MLS) -120
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Orlando City (USA-MLS) -120

    As a big Orlando City supporter and non-capper, I saw this line and figured I must be missing something. Of course OCSC won't maintain their incredible start throughout the season and Colorado has to improve at some point, but I still don't get this line. I see nothing but negatives for Colorado (form, injuries, Howard's suspension, the trade they made) and nothing but positives for Orlando (unbeaten at home, tremendous defense vs. a team that can't create shots let alone score, getting Kaka back although I only expect 20-30 mins off the bench today).

    I'd ask what I was missing but since you bet them, you likely don't have an answer. I may or may not put some $ on them but I'll but pulling for them as usual. GL.

    EDIT - Do you follow the MLS closely as a fan/out of interest or just model it for betting purposes? Just curious.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Line is pretty close to what I project. Like you mentioned above I just thought the road/home form and other injury/susp. factors with my slight line value was enough.

    I do follow the league and try to watch what I can through MLS live as a fan and to handicap it. The new stadium in Orlando looks nice.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    The new stadium in Orlando looks nice.

    I haven't been there yet but it's obviously a big deal here and has gotten nothing but rave reviews. My wife's friend has season tix with a group and offered us extras to the LA match 2 weeks ago (Larin's stoppage time winner). Sadly, we already had plans to go to my in-laws' house for Easter weekend so we couldn't go. I'm still giving my wife crap about it. :)

    All that said, I generally prefer watching from home anyway, especially on days like today when it's an afternoon start with a forecast of 92 at kick-off. We'll get there at some point this season I'm sure.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    3-3 (-.18)

    5/3

    Monaco (UCL) PK +120
    Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) -117
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) -117

    My opinion on non-Orlando matches probably isn't worth much (not even sure my Orlando opinions are worth anything although I/we were right vs. Colorado) but I can definitely see some logic here. KC's defense has been stellar and while the Red Bulls have improved on their slow start just like last season, those recent wins have been at home. Taking the more consistent, top-notch defense at home makes sense to me. GL. I was already rooting for KC since it's a west vs. east matchup and I'll always be hoping for the west to win.

    Tough test for Orlando tonight. Wouldn't even consider making a play. With the short week and 7 games this month, some guys are going to have to be given some rest at some point, not to mention that Toronto is obviously a very good team whose form is also improving. I'd be happy to come away with a result but mostly just want to see a good effort given the situation.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    Goats wrote: »
    Tough test for Orlando tonight. Wouldn't even consider making a play. With the short week and 7 games this month, some guys are going to have to be given some rest at some point, not to mention that Toronto is obviously a very good team whose form is also improving. I'd be happy to come away with a result but mostly just want to see a good effort given the situation.

    Next 5 games for Orlando look tough. Should be a good gauge of how good they actually are. I didn't get a chance to watch the game Saturday as I was traveling but by the looks of the numbers they seemed in control and it was only a matter of time that they were going to get 1 or 2. They only allowed 3 total shots and only 1 on target.

    Got a chance to watch KC vs RSL Saturday night. Even though RSL is bad I thought KC's defense didn't give up any decent opportunities. RSL had some shots but not many that were on target. Hoping NY continues home/road performance difference. (Like you mentioned their success has mostly been at home)
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    I didn't get a chance to watch the game Saturday as I was traveling but by the looks of the numbers they seemed in control and it was only a matter of time that they were going to get 1 or 2. They only allowed 3 total shots and only 1 on target.

    Bendik had less to do than in any game I can recall since he took over the job. The defense continued to be solid but Colorado's offense was as bad as I expected (hadn't seen them, just went by their awful stats). The only way we were losing was 0-0. Kreis intentionally didn't start Rivas so he could bring him in with Kaka late to inject energy. The offense wasn't generating much until they came in but everything changed after the 60th minute. Rivas has become infamous for launching shots into the 20th row but the potential is definitely there and he already looks much improved this season. He hit the post 3 times in one game a few weeks back so it was great to finally see him score with that rocket. Barnes was a solid pickup (especially since Shea was such a failure for OC) but he doesn't do the dynamic things Rivas does or pair nearly as well with Larin IMO. And of course Kaka is way better at creating out of the midfield than anyone else they have.

    I'm rambling about this stuff mostly because, as I mentioned, with the rough schedule ahead, you can't expect Rivas and Kaka to start every single game so I'm very interested to see how Kreis handles it. Not making excuses in advance, and don't really need to, they're big dogs tonight for a reason, have to play @HOU 3 days later, @SJ 4 days after facing SKC at home, etc., but as long as they remain competitive and don't put up horrible results this month, I'll remain cautiously optimistic.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    I'm finding it hard to imagine a situation where the Rapids would ever score again.

    They roped me back into another year of season tickets after last year's success (skipped em last year, had em in 2015, maybe I'm the curse).
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    4-4 (-.18)

    5/4

    Manchester United +135
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    5-4 (+1.17)

    5/6

    Columbus (MLS) -115
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    5-4 (+1.17)

    5/6

    Columbus (MLS) -115

    Only thing keeping me from full agreement here is NE's surprise showing in SEA last week, although they of course ended up blowing the 3 goal lead (and 1 of their goals was a howler from Frei). If I throw that out, which I probably should, I like the play. Certainly wouldn't play NE here.

    Going back to WED, it's a shame Orlando City couldn't tie it up in the 2H after totally dominating and giving Larin two point blank chances he usually finishes. They came out slow in the 1H but the 2H left me feeling good about the team; it was just unfortunate to not get a goal/point. Will Johnson falling ill didn't help either. Not sure what to expect tonight with all the travel and Houston being strong at home. If they can muster the energy, I have no doubt Kreis will have been focusing on a better start.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    Value play for me with Columbus. They are less of a favorite vs a worse team overall and on the road than they were in same situation as last week vs NYCFC. Plus I thought NE's performance was a bit misleading statically last week. We'll see.

    I thought for sure Orlando would get a 2nd goal on Wednesday. Didn't understand what Toronto was doing in 2H. Happens a lot in MLS with teams that have a lead. Tough game for them tonight vs Houston.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Value play for me with Columbus. They are less of a favorite vs a worse team overall and on the road than they were in same situation as last week vs NYCFC. Plus I thought NE's performance was a bit misleading statically last week. We'll see.

    I thought for sure Orlando would get a 2nd goal on Wednesday. Didn't understand what Toronto was doing in 2H. Happens a lot in MLS with teams that have a lead. Tough game for them tonight vs Houston.

    Agree on all counts. I know Orlando inside and out but this is the first year I'm trying to follow the league more as a whole. NE is a team I just don't get. Their offense looks so potent on paper but they really haven't been good. I didn't look at the stats, but based highlights, recaps, and YTD overall results, I have no doubt that NE's performance was misleading last week.

    Toronto sitting back in the 2H like that surprised me more than Orlando coming out strong. Local (and some national) media makes Kreis out to be some sort of Jedi Master and I've always been hesitant to go overboard giving him credit, but aside from their overall results/performances, he truly does seem to be able to get the team to rebound from bad starts, setbacks, etc. Tonight will undoubtedly be tough, making it more painful that they couldn't get a point vs Toronto. I'm just hoping to have Will Johnson back. He doesn't get nearly as much credit as he deserves. Nocerino would be great too, but Carrasco is a serviceable d-mid, whereas I've been less than impressed with some of our other midfielders, especially Gil who I thought looked pretty bad in his first start Saturday replacing Johnson.

    BTW, hope you don't mind my excessive Orlando comments. If you'd rather I edit them down, by all means let me know, I won't be offended. :)
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    No worries. I try to read as much as I can on teams so any info from someone who follows a team/league like you do helps.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    6-4 (+2.17)

    5/7

    Atlanta United (USA-MLS) +.5 +100
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    6-5 (+1.17)

    5/11

    Manchester United -1 -104
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    6-6 (+0.13)

    5/17

    Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) -130
    Chicago Fire (USA-MLS) -162
    San Jose Earthquakes (USA-MLS) -133
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    6-6 (+0.13)

    5/17

    Sporting Kansas City (USA-MLS) -130
    Chicago Fire (USA-MLS) -162
    San Jose Earthquakes (USA-MLS) -133

    I like the first two. Can't root for San Jose of course and fandom aside I really know very little about them so wouldn't have an opinion regardless. I can certainly see fading Orlando City given the travel and short rest. Probably a decent chance that Kaka and/or Rivas come off the bench tonight and their replacements (Barnes and Perez-Garcia) have been very disappointing.

    GL with the first two and I'd be content if you pushed the third. :)
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    Even worse than I thought. I was right about Kaka & Rivas but Spector is also getting the night off along with three other regular starters. Two guys on the back line are making their MLS debuts. Scary lineup. Fans on Twitter are not happy.

    EDIT: Apparently Spector is out due to illness.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    Goats wrote: »
    Even worse than I thought. I was right about Kaka & Rivas but Spector is also getting the night off along with two other regular starters. Two guys on the back line are making their MLS debuts. Scary lineup. Fans on Twitter are not happy.

    Just saw the lineup on twitter. I caught part of the last 2 games and it seems like they've been struggling defensively a bit. Giving up more opportunities of late. Not that San Jose is a great offense but they do play much better at home. It will be interesting to see how this lineup for Orlando handles the first 15-20 minutes of the game.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    Sorry to clutter your thread but I was thinking of adding a 1h play for the same reasoning. What do you think?
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    Sorry to clutter your thread but I was thinking of adding a 1h play for the same reasoning. What do you think?

    I'd play it on the goal line 1h (pk,-½ -105 ) if you play. If they are a goal ahead you win both bets. If it's tied you would lose half the bet.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    At least my pain got you a push. Orlando City dominated play and San Jose looked flat almost the entire game. I said I'd be content with a point pregame but with how it played out they easily could/should have picked up all 3. Our left back, PC, making his 1st appearance coming from the NASL looked really good & Perez-Garcia was better than in recent weeks.

    Would probably be looking to play on OC vs NYC on Sunday where I would expect more of a first choice starting XI (depending on the line of course). They seem to play well vs. NYC (2-0 this season) & NYC will be on the same short rest having lost at RSL last night.

    Nice call on the other two easy winners. I'm beginning to think I should be playing games you post that I agree with.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    Lost with San Jose. That was on the 3 way line. Orlando played really well I thought, deserved to win. I knew San Jose's offense wasn't great but they never even tried to push forward in the 1H. Thought they would play better being at home. Orlando had the better chances for sure.

    I have Orlando as -.31 favorite and total of 3.09 for Sunday's game. I imagine it will open PK-.5 with a bit of juice or .5 with some NY juice. Again depending on lineups after both teams coming back on short rest.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    Lost with San Jose. That was on the 3 way line.

    My bad, long day in the sun yesterday, not sure why I was thinking PK. Screw Wondo then since he helped no one!

    As far as Sunday's line, my problem with betting MLS as a fan is that I have no math/formula for making lines so while I probably have a good feel for certain teams/matchups, I'm virtually guessing as far as the price goes. That's why I've only made one actual bet all season and may not make another unless something seems really off to me like that OC/Colorado match. I'm content being a fan.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited May 2017
    8-7 (+0.8)

    5/20

    Dallas (USA-MLS) -1 -110
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited May 2017
    ebemiss wrote: »
    8-7 (+0.8)

    5/20

    Dallas (USA-MLS) -1 -110

    Tough to lay a full goal in this league but I'd certainly be shocked if SJ got a result on the road on short rest between home/road forms, Dallas being rested and a top team, how unimpressed I was with SJ, etc. As usual, I certainly see the logic here. GL.
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