oops, make that 2-unit NE -15
Should not be close, I have NE -27, Houston is horrid on road, and they're extremely fortunate just being here. They beat an Oakland team that was on the road with a VERY green QB at helm. Yes, I picked Oakland +3.5 last week, obviously wrong pick with 20/20 hindsight, BUT Oakland was the better team all around, I just didn't expect Cook to be that unprepared, and yet he put more than few passes there to be caught but were inexplicably dropped. Oakland was completely out of synch without Carr, and the team just didn't show up. Houston benefited by this, but facing NE at home is 100% opposite of last week with Oakland away. Love the situation, with Houston gaining some false confidence, heading into NE.
Much of this comes down to situational and home/away stats. Situationally, NE is coming off actually a not good performance for them. If you watched the game, much less the box score, they were clearly flat and committed an uncharacteristic 3 turnovers. Their post-game press conferences made you think they lost the game! And yet despite the bad showing, and turnovers, they managed to cover the huge -15 or -16 spread versus the #1 defense (Houston) in the NFL. Deceptively VERY impressive. Have to think based on Belichick past precedence, they don't repeat that performance.
As for Steelers, they end up here winning a close one in KC. It's always impressive to win at Arrowhead, a HUGE home field edge. Yet note Pitt did not score a TD. And KC's defense is ranked 25th via yardage allowed vs. NE's D ranked 8th. Pitt will not come close to winning tomorrow if they score zero TDs vs. NE.
Note that Big Ben at home is 20 TDs and 5 INTs, vs. away where he's 9 TDs and 9 INTs, a pretty HUGE home/away disparity. Which Ben will show up tomorrow?
As I've cited here repeatedly, turnovers are the #1 determinant of the SU winner and the ATS winner. Look it up. In NFL since 2010, the team with 1 or more net turnover margin advantage in game has gone 1157-324 78% SU and 1121-333 77% ATS. Pick the team that will have the turnover advantage, you very likely have the ATS winner. Yes, easier said then done....
But given Big Ben's home/away stats, with his proneness for turnovers in general but esp. away (and mind you Ben has 9 INTs in last 6 games), compared to Brady's rare turnovers, which team is likely to have more turnovers tomorrow?
And in NFL conference championship games, the team that has lost the net turnover margin has gone 4-21 SU and 2-23 ATS
But it's not just about turnovers, I have NE winning this by 14 based on home/away seasonal stats.
And some say NE played lesser teams, I have found in NFL where there is much parity, strength of schedule is less meaningful, versus say in NCAA football.
as for the Atl/GB game, I'm passing.... I have the line about Atl -3, too close to current line. i know everyone is writing about the many injuries to GB, how that will finally take its toll, but I'm not so sure. Yes, this could easily be an Atlanta blowout, given the firepower of that Falcon offense. But GB can't be discounted with Rodgers at the helm, he is just incredible, the Joe Montana of our time, imo. He has literally taken a battered team this far! That late sideline pass completion vs. Dallas, yes great catch by Cook, but Rodgers incredibly put it right there. He does that often. So this game could become a shootout with GB getting +6 as a big bonus.
Also, for what it's worth, and again I'm passing on this game, in NFL conference championships, when both teams are coming off wins where they scored 28 or more points, and the posted total is 40 or more, the home team is 0-6 ATS since 2007, favoring GB. Just saying...
Favorites in SB? 4-9 ATS in last 13, and just 7-6 SU. Favors Atlanta ATS, but going against. Look, this is going to come down to NE defense vs. Atl defense (whereas most will spend time on the offenses), and to lesser extent NE being here in SB many times vs. Falcons much less so. But Falcons D in last 9 games has allowed 5.2 yards per carry (ypc) rushing (!). That's huge! Over entire season, Falcon D has allowed 4.6 ypc, so last 9 games is even worse. But this stat gets no attention because Falcons have been putting up 30+ points per game and winning, usually big. But that very weak stat will likely come home to roost in SB. NE has Lewis back as RB and the Blount/Lewis tandem should be able to do serious damage against Falcon's weak rush D. This will open up opportunities for Brady, allowing him to do what he does best, surgically break down opposing D via short precise passes. And Hogan has clearly stepped up to be a go-to replacement-out for Gronk, Brady going to him often, successfully.
And need I remind the Patriot D is very good. NE defense is ranked 8th best yardage allowed, compared to 25th Atlanta D. Atlanta will certainly score points but likely not what they've been accustomed to vs. NE D, esp. after the last 2 games vs. depleted GB D and Seahawks D on road, and esp. now on neutral field and with 2 weeks off, perhaps breaking their momentum. Brady's been here many times, no jitters, vs. possible nerves for Matty Ice. But again, much of this comes down to defenses, where imo, night and day. The Falcons very weak rush D will finally be exposed to point where will cost them the game, as Belichick no stooge with 2 weeks to prepare, will completely exploit this weakness. Also, Belichick known for shutting down the key strength, which will be Julio Jones, forcing Ryan to beat them elsewhere. Just FYI, Patriots are 9-0 ATS in 2016 and 19-3 ATS since 2014 when rushing for 100 or more yards. Me thinks they do that here and get the cover.
Oh, and I thought this was interesting, given my expectation the defenses will be key factor in SB. During 2016-2017 season, when Atlanta has scored 30 or more points they've gone 10-3 ATS, but when scored 30 or less have gone 2-4 ATS. So their ATS success is VERY dependent on scoring lots of points, likely to cover-up their D weaknesses. Compare this to NE who is 10-0 ATS when scoring 30 or more, but also a very good 7-3 ATS when scoring 30 or less, likely due to NE's very good D keeping opposing team's score down = ATS cover.
sosoangry
Senior Member
Comments
KC -1
Should not be close, I have NE -27, Houston is horrid on road, and they're extremely fortunate just being here. They beat an Oakland team that was on the road with a VERY green QB at helm. Yes, I picked Oakland +3.5 last week, obviously wrong pick with 20/20 hindsight, BUT Oakland was the better team all around, I just didn't expect Cook to be that unprepared, and yet he put more than few passes there to be caught but were inexplicably dropped. Oakland was completely out of synch without Carr, and the team just didn't show up. Houston benefited by this, but facing NE at home is 100% opposite of last week with Oakland away. Love the situation, with Houston gaining some false confidence, heading into NE.
Much of this comes down to situational and home/away stats. Situationally, NE is coming off actually a not good performance for them. If you watched the game, much less the box score, they were clearly flat and committed an uncharacteristic 3 turnovers. Their post-game press conferences made you think they lost the game! And yet despite the bad showing, and turnovers, they managed to cover the huge -15 or -16 spread versus the #1 defense (Houston) in the NFL. Deceptively VERY impressive. Have to think based on Belichick past precedence, they don't repeat that performance.
As for Steelers, they end up here winning a close one in KC. It's always impressive to win at Arrowhead, a HUGE home field edge. Yet note Pitt did not score a TD. And KC's defense is ranked 25th via yardage allowed vs. NE's D ranked 8th. Pitt will not come close to winning tomorrow if they score zero TDs vs. NE.
Note that Big Ben at home is 20 TDs and 5 INTs, vs. away where he's 9 TDs and 9 INTs, a pretty HUGE home/away disparity. Which Ben will show up tomorrow?
As I've cited here repeatedly, turnovers are the #1 determinant of the SU winner and the ATS winner. Look it up. In NFL since 2010, the team with 1 or more net turnover margin advantage in game has gone 1157-324 78% SU and 1121-333 77% ATS. Pick the team that will have the turnover advantage, you very likely have the ATS winner. Yes, easier said then done....
But given Big Ben's home/away stats, with his proneness for turnovers in general but esp. away (and mind you Ben has 9 INTs in last 6 games), compared to Brady's rare turnovers, which team is likely to have more turnovers tomorrow?
And in NFL conference championship games, the team that has lost the net turnover margin has gone 4-21 SU and 2-23 ATS
But it's not just about turnovers, I have NE winning this by 14 based on home/away seasonal stats.
And some say NE played lesser teams, I have found in NFL where there is much parity, strength of schedule is less meaningful, versus say in NCAA football.
Also, for what it's worth, and again I'm passing on this game, in NFL conference championships, when both teams are coming off wins where they scored 28 or more points, and the posted total is 40 or more, the home team is 0-6 ATS since 2007, favoring GB. Just saying...
Favorites in SB? 4-9 ATS in last 13, and just 7-6 SU. Favors Atlanta ATS, but going against. Look, this is going to come down to NE defense vs. Atl defense (whereas most will spend time on the offenses), and to lesser extent NE being here in SB many times vs. Falcons much less so. But Falcons D in last 9 games has allowed 5.2 yards per carry (ypc) rushing (!). That's huge! Over entire season, Falcon D has allowed 4.6 ypc, so last 9 games is even worse. But this stat gets no attention because Falcons have been putting up 30+ points per game and winning, usually big. But that very weak stat will likely come home to roost in SB. NE has Lewis back as RB and the Blount/Lewis tandem should be able to do serious damage against Falcon's weak rush D. This will open up opportunities for Brady, allowing him to do what he does best, surgically break down opposing D via short precise passes. And Hogan has clearly stepped up to be a go-to replacement-out for Gronk, Brady going to him often, successfully.
And need I remind the Patriot D is very good. NE defense is ranked 8th best yardage allowed, compared to 25th Atlanta D. Atlanta will certainly score points but likely not what they've been accustomed to vs. NE D, esp. after the last 2 games vs. depleted GB D and Seahawks D on road, and esp. now on neutral field and with 2 weeks off, perhaps breaking their momentum. Brady's been here many times, no jitters, vs. possible nerves for Matty Ice. But again, much of this comes down to defenses, where imo, night and day. The Falcons very weak rush D will finally be exposed to point where will cost them the game, as Belichick no stooge with 2 weeks to prepare, will completely exploit this weakness. Also, Belichick known for shutting down the key strength, which will be Julio Jones, forcing Ryan to beat them elsewhere. Just FYI, Patriots are 9-0 ATS in 2016 and 19-3 ATS since 2014 when rushing for 100 or more yards. Me thinks they do that here and get the cover.
The NE SB pick was in the bag! :coolsign: Just incredible comeback, one for ages.