Yes I do have a custom type model. There is always human sentiment involved though.
As far as CLV. I do track that on my own. This year I have not tracked any of the stats for the plays posted on BT. in the past I have and separated certain characteristics (Ie, Tourny level, surface, dog, favorite, ect.) I have never tracked CLV on the BT plays because I shade the prices to round numbers. And IMO the only way to track it accurately is the line at pinny from when the play was made to what it closed at. the juice on tennis can be vastly different book to book.
for example on pinny Gibbs was -101 so I used -105, Bellis/Flipkens was +103 so I put +100.
Hope that makes sense and helps. If someone wants to track these plays ill put the actual line and would save me a ton of time and work as well, be my guest, but I doubt there are many avid tennis bettors on here. part of the reason why I consolidated everything and post sporadically in hopes to at least provide some profits with whatever edge I may think I have.
Yes I do have a custom type model. There is always human sentiment involved though.
As far is CLV. I do track that on my own. This year I have not tracked any of the stats for the plays posted on BT. in the past I have and separated certain characteristics (Ie, Tourny level, surface, dog, favorite, ect.) I have never tracked CLV on the BT plays because I shade the prices to round numbers. And IMO the only way to track it accurately is the line at pinny from when the play was made to what it closed at. the juice on tennis can be vastly different book to book.
for example on pinny Gibbs was -101 so I used -105, Bellis/Flipkens was +103 so I put +100.
Hope that makes sense and helps. If someone wants to track these plays ill put the actual line and would save me a ton of time and work as well, be my guest, but I doubt there are many avid tennis bettors on here. part of the reason why I consolidated everything and post sporadically in hopes to at least provide some profits with whatever edge I may have.
Troicki +140 over Dolgopolov
Khachanov +120 over Robredo
Kuznetsov -2 -110 over Delbonis
Sela -150 over Robert
Medvedev -3 -105 over Youzhny
Tomic/Fratangelo O22 -115
Sousa/Schwartzman O 22.5 -110
Watson/Konta U20 -115 (WTA)
Paire +115 over Fritz
Evans/Brown O21.5 -110
Dolgopolov +115 over Kohlschreiber
Vandeweghe +100 over Safarova (WTA)
Georges -135 over Stosur (WTA)
Indian Wells 2017: 12-18 -5.5 Units
2017 YTD: 77-74 +8.4 Units
Miami:
Fognini +120 over Harrison
Young -195 over Brown
Bouchard +130 over Barty (WTA)
Bellis/Tomljanovic U20.5 -115 (WTA)
Cirstea +255 over Puig (WTA)
Just an FYI: Indian Wells Record should be 11-18 as watson/konta under 20 was a push not a win. Good luck and continued success.
Thank you Nacer, I did have it as a push. but, Yes you are correct . Actually what happened is that I think I graded Dolgo/Khol @ +105 as a winner since the retirement was after 1 set even though I posted no action. But this year I'm going with the standard 2 sets for action/ 3 sets on slam. So with the change, the record is correct as you state, here are the updated units after re calculating the tourny's plays.
Indian Wells 2017: 11-18 -6.55 Units
2017 YTD: 76-74 +7.35 Units
Comments
Schwartzman/Cuevas O22.5 -115
Nadal -1.5 sets -160 over Querrey (Nadal to win 2-0)
Pending:
Querrey/Nadal U21.5 -105
Beck +5.5 -120 over Bouchard (WTA)
Bellis/Flipkens U19.5 +100 (WTA)
Cirstea +3 -110 over Niculescu (WTA)
King +4 -110 over Petkovic (WTA)
Giorgi -2 -110 over Larsson (WTA)
Do you model these? Also do you track CLV?
Yes I do have a custom type model. There is always human sentiment involved though.
As far as CLV. I do track that on my own. This year I have not tracked any of the stats for the plays posted on BT. in the past I have and separated certain characteristics (Ie, Tourny level, surface, dog, favorite, ect.) I have never tracked CLV on the BT plays because I shade the prices to round numbers. And IMO the only way to track it accurately is the line at pinny from when the play was made to what it closed at. the juice on tennis can be vastly different book to book.
for example on pinny Gibbs was -101 so I used -105, Bellis/Flipkens was +103 so I put +100.
Hope that makes sense and helps. If someone wants to track these plays ill put the actual line and would save me a ton of time and work as well, be my guest, but I doubt there are many avid tennis bettors on here. part of the reason why I consolidated everything and post sporadically in hopes to at least provide some profits with whatever edge I may think I have.
Fair enough. Keep it up. Good work
Khachanov +120 over Robredo
Kuznetsov -2 -110 over Delbonis
Sela -150 over Robert
Medvedev -3 -105 over Youzhny
Tomic/Fratangelo O22 -115
Sousa/Schwartzman O 22.5 -110
Paire +115 over Fritz
Evans/Brown O21.5 -110
Dolgopolov +115 over Kohlschreiber
Vandeweghe +100 over Safarova (WTA)
Georges -135 over Stosur (WTA)
Kohlschreiber +200 over Wawrinka
M Zverev +215 over Thiem
Mladenovic +155 over Halep (WTA)
sometimes cold, sometimes hot,
it's how we all roll here....
couldn't care less for his record,
solid tips for a couple of years now
sometimes cold, sometimes hot,
it's how we all roll here....
couldn't care less for his record,
solid tips for a couple of years now
no action on King, Dolgo,
2017 Indian Wells 6-15 -9.5 Units
Jaziri/Fritz O22.5 -115
Sock +3 -105 over Dimitrov
Young +225 over Pouille
Nadal/Verdasco U21.5 -115
Del Potro +3.5 -115 over Djokovic
Your long term record speaks for itself!
2017 YTD: 77-74 +8.4 Units
Miami:
Fognini +120 over Harrison
Young -195 over Brown
Bouchard +130 over Barty (WTA)
Bellis/Tomljanovic U20.5 -115 (WTA)
Cirstea +255 over Puig (WTA)
Thank you Nacer, I did have it as a push. but, Yes you are correct . Actually what happened is that I think I graded Dolgo/Khol @ +105 as a winner since the retirement was after 1 set even though I posted no action. But this year I'm going with the standard 2 sets for action/ 3 sets on slam. So with the change, the record is correct as you state, here are the updated units after re calculating the tourny's plays.
Indian Wells 2017: 11-18 -6.55 Units
2017 YTD: 76-74 +7.35 Units
No action on Bellis/Tomljanovic
Miami: 3-1 +3.75 Units
Schwartzman +115 over Kachanov
Istomin -135 over Kuznetsov
Osaka +3.5 -115 over Halep (WTA)
Ymer +4 -105 over Haase
Georges -2.5 -120 over Navarro (WTA)