RAS 1.5 unit plays
Cools
Senior Member
How many of you guys with poor bankroll discipline have gotten killed on these? 0-5 last five? My theory on the 1.5 units...Ed is driving up/down number and then playing the other side :laughing:
Comments
Cools, I don't think Edward would resort to such covert backstabbing. I am convinced though in CBB you can't win unless you get most of his #s.
Then why do you subscribe?
Hi Golfer.
This is Stephanie, Benny's wife.
He just spit tea out all over the keyboard and hit his head on the computer table because he's laughing at you.
Turn off ESPN and read a book.
Never a profitable move playing opposite of Edward and Co.
Huh?
What?
So you're saying that in games where RAS has negative CLV, you believe that they win about 20% of the time?
Luckily, it's an easy thing to check in their archives. This year in college hoops, they are 2-0 in this situation (in full games). In CFB on full games, they are 3-3. And last year in CFB, it went 5-5. And the year before that, 5-6. In 2013, it was 4-3.
I'm thinking that if I keep going, we'll find they hit at better than 20%.
nice to see you are still alive
Which game(s)?
p much.
If we did do this is there a different way you'd like us to calculate the CLV?
IDK. Maybe I'm in the tiny percentage of people that feel this way but I disagree re overkill. Whether you're shipping a full game CFB side into 10k limits Saturday or a second half CBB total I really believe the market is going to get it right (or close to). I don't think there is much overkill at all. If you're betting something the "wrong" way your following should in theory only set it up on a platter for someone else to bet opposite. If you're betting something the "right" way your following should keep betting it that way until the value is gone, which would then either hold the number close to where it's going to close, OR set it up for someone to come back the other way because your following opened it up.
I think you can even notice this in your releases. Sometimes (most) you ship a total and it takes the hell off and never comes back. Sometimes you ship a total and it hardly budges or gets shit on. I just think markets are crazy efficient (though, I can always be talked into early season, particularly college markets have some minor inefficiencies, but not for long). There were several college football games on Saturday this year getting two way, competitive action. That's just fascinating to me and speaks volumes of the efficiency. There's just a lot of talented people out there that know what the hell they are doing. I just don't buy into the overkill or whatever because of your following or whatever other reason. The markets gonna get it close to right regardless.
I guess if you are hitting Pinny right before kick/tip that is one thing. But even then I'm more then likely the lone pyscho in this world that thinks someone would still hit it back if it were wrong for you to do so or not even let it get to that point in the first place.
#teamCLV
If I can get down at the release line and it's 2 points better than it "should" have been, then it works out pretty well for me (and any other subs that get that line).