It's good for subs, but it's not an accurate indicator of market edge if you only have line value because you created it. Nobody would complain, but it's misrepresenting the true edge.
Market has a game 140. I bump it to 142 20 seconds before release and send under 142. It closes 140. Does the 2 points clv that could be "claimed" represent anything significant? No. Subs have a better line, good for them for sure, but that does not represent a market edge in any way.
I'm not saying this is bad, most subs would like it. I do think it makes the clv at times misleading though because it's 100% artificially created.
If I can get down at the release line and it's 2 points better than it "should" have been, then it works out pretty well for me (and any other subs that get that line).
Do you think +2 clv in that instance represents RAS true edge over the market?
i would hope RAS is doing this on every game if possible. I sure would like 2 points better on every game. (I'm sure everyone would). I don't care what his CLV is for the year personally. We all know he has an edge, it's no secret at this point considering he's won for 15 straight years. But I do want the extra 2 points.
But I'm having a nightmare of a time getting the release number this year.... But that's another discussion.
Do you think +2 clv in that instance represents RAS true edge over the market?
I guess it comes down to what you're trying to evaluate when looking at the CLV.
If you're trying to figure out if the guy is a good handicapper, then not necessarily. If I'm hitting Women's NCAA hoops plays at $25 a pop at 5D and hit it 4 times just to move the line ~6 points and then release the other side, it doesn't really show that I know what I'm doing when the line goes back to where it should go (just using it as an analogy, obviously a big difference between some of the laughable women's hoops lines they hang and hitting NCAA men's plays at Pinny when the market is mostly mature).
But if I'm looking at CLV in terms of adding value to plays, then absolutely. If we think that the closing line is efficient, then it really doesn't matter how those extra 2 points came about? In the end, those 2 points just add to the +EV of the play. You obviously see doing something like this as a negative since you think they're using smoke and mirrors to enhance their CLV (if they are doing it), but I'd love it since it just gives the plays more value. I'd say that RAS has a proven track record of winning in the college sports marketplaces, but seems like the value of the service is enhanced if they're going to manipulate lines for me as well.
I guess it comes down to what you're trying to evaluate when looking at the CLV.
If you're trying to figure out if the guy is a good handicapper, then not necessarily. If I'm hitting Women's NCAA hoops plays at $25 a pop at 5D and hit it 4 times just to move the line ~6 points and then release the other side, it doesn't really show that I know what I'm doing when the line goes back to where it should go (just using it as an analogy, obviously a big difference between some of the laughable women's hoops lines they hang and hitting NCAA men's plays at Pinny when the market is mostly mature).
But if I'm looking at CLV in terms of adding value to plays, then absolutely. If we think that the closing line is efficient, then it really doesn't matter how those extra 2 points came about. In the end, those 2 points just add to the +EV of the play. You obviously see doing something like this as a negative since you think they're using smoke and mirrors to enhance their CLV (if they are doing it), but I'd love it since it just gives the plays more value.
I agree with what you're saying.
I'm not disputing that it's +EV for the client, I just don't think it is any indicator of how solid the play is.
I'm not disputing that it's +EV for the client, I just don't think it is any indicator of how solid the play is.
In what sense? Isn't the line really everything when it comes to making a play? In the old coin toss example, say that I bet "heads" from -105 up to +110 and then released it to my clients. It ended up closing at +100. That CLV might not show that I have any edge over the market when handicapping a coin toss, but it was certainly a solid play for my clients.
I'm guessing that your thoughts are that this "inflated" CLV (if it is in fact inflated) is making RAS look like better cappers than they actually are, when looking specifically at CLV. And maybe that's true, I don't know. But for me, I don't care how they get there, whether it's technical capping, info gathering, or setting up the line. I'd just want to get the strongest plays possible, and I'd say that getting a couple of extra points only adds to the strength.
The only true way to really see how much edge RAS has now days is to see what his clv is on non released games. (Assuming he's not setting up the other side on those). Then you don't have the following pouncing on the game all day long. We can sit here and talk about the market being efficient and correcting itself all day long. But when your as big and as respected as RAS, it's nearly impossible for his numbers to have negative clv IMO. Although there is always a few games each year that have negative clv, so you kinda wonder if it's just a really bad play, or the RAS team releases the wrong side and comes back the other way? No way of really knowing. I would think most influential people betting college hoops can recognize if it's an RAS move or someone else's, I find it hard to believe they would want to oppose him even if the line has moved to far.
Good lord these are awful. I can remember when you could use the 1.5 and 2.0 picks as collateral at a bank. Now, save one lucky OT win, they are 0 for forever and none even close. Ready for my last few credits to be gone so I can end this nightmare.
should I try and double reverse jinx the 2 unit???? No way it loses. Stanford just looked so good in the first half I can't imagine it losing. Already counting my money at half. I wish I could of got more down on it.
Ed can I start a double reverse jinx thread for CBB? We need to change the mojo. Please!
Is the double reverse jinx anything like the dreaded double dog dare or even the triple dog dare which can not be refused. Come on Ed please could we do the double reverse jinx. Merry Xmas
Just a thought... Not trying to nickel and dime you out of credits by any means. But to me it makes more since to give credit refunds when 1.5 and 2 unit games lose. Versus give a refund when a play has negative clv and loses. Losing a 1.5 or 2 unit play is going to hurt the client more than losing a 1 unit. Plus - we are losing more higher rated unit plays then having plays lose with negative clv. Personally don't really care either way, but this makes much more since to me from a client perspective.
Good lord these are awful. I can remember when you could use the 1.5 and 2.0 picks as collateral at a bank. Now, save one lucky OT win, they are 0 for forever and none even close. Ready for my last few credits to be gone so I can end this nightmare.
I don't know how many credits I have left, but this is it for me too. Just too bad this year.
Good lord these are awful. I can remember when you could use the 1.5 and 2.0 picks as collateral at a bank. Now, save one lucky OT win, they are 0 for forever and none even close. Ready for my last few credits to be gone so I can end this nightmare.
I don't know how many more credit to buy to get thru the season but it already cost me 160 credit that just too much for me so I decide to jump off the ship miss a lot of line didn't get to win like other people so sad.
I don't know how many more credit to buy to get thru the season but it already cost me 160 credit that just too much for me so I decide to jump off the ship miss a lot of line didn't get to win like other people so sad.
Play your own shit then, this isn't the Salvation fucking Army. The season isnt even half over yet and the guys won 14 st8 years or whatever. Give it some time. Maybe the issue is that you dont have a big enough bankroll to justify spending the amount needed to buy credits. Just a thought, not attacking you.
Play your own shit then, this isn't the Salvation fucking Army. The season isnt even half over yet and the guys won 14 st8 years or whatever. Give it some time. Maybe the issue is that you dont have a big enough bankroll to justify spending the amount needed to buy credits. Just a thought, not attacking you.
That why I said it too much for me so I jump off the ship maybe u have 7k to buy 400 credit to get thru the season but to me it just to much for a cbb season I might play my own shit to save that money rather pay for it and still don't know gonna make any money back and I think u not ras subscriber so u don't know when u need stay on the ship or jump off the ship
Some of the higher rated play results have been admittedly tough to stomach, especially Stanford last night, but I assure you we take a lot of pride in them and have full confidence they will win going forward. We are 5-7 on them so far this year, it isn't a big enough sample size to deduct much from. They are still 36-26 in CBB going back 5+ years (this year included), and even better going further back and/or counting CFB.
We are hitting 55.63% overall (almost identical to our win rate over last 5 years coming in) and up +9.95 units for season. Last year we weren't above 5 units once in Nov-Dec and were -1.65 units on Jan 1st before finishing +16.00 units.
As for the overall cost, yes it is much higher than it has ever been, that is because we are releasing more types of plays at higher volume than we ever have. We used to sell sides only for the season for $2500-$3000. Right now sides only for the season is on pace to cost considerably less than that. If you want less volume/cost, simply pick the subset(s) of plays that work best for you based on your schedule and ability to get good lines.
We understand that not everyone can get the release lines consistently, and that losing on any game where the service had a different result is extremely frustrating. This is and likely will always be the biggest drawback of the service. However, for anyone who is still able to get the release lines consistently, the service is as strong as ever.
That why I said it too much for me so I jump off the ship maybe u have 7k to buy 400 credit to get thru the season but to me it just to much for a cbb season I might play my own shit to save that money rather pay for it and still don't know gonna make any money back and I think u not ras subscriber so u don't know when u need stay on the ship or jump off the ship
I dont play Ras plays no, I bet 100 a game tops. Not worth it for me. But I've been around this site long enough to know these same conversations happen every single year.
Comments
Market has a game 140. I bump it to 142 20 seconds before release and send under 142. It closes 140. Does the 2 points clv that could be "claimed" represent anything significant? No. Subs have a better line, good for them for sure, but that does not represent a market edge in any way.
I'm not saying this is bad, most subs would like it. I do think it makes the clv at times misleading though because it's 100% artificially created.
No. Do you do it?
Do you think +2 clv in that instance represents RAS true edge over the market?
But I'm having a nightmare of a time getting the release number this year.... But that's another discussion.
I guess it comes down to what you're trying to evaluate when looking at the CLV.
If you're trying to figure out if the guy is a good handicapper, then not necessarily. If I'm hitting Women's NCAA hoops plays at $25 a pop at 5D and hit it 4 times just to move the line ~6 points and then release the other side, it doesn't really show that I know what I'm doing when the line goes back to where it should go (just using it as an analogy, obviously a big difference between some of the laughable women's hoops lines they hang and hitting NCAA men's plays at Pinny when the market is mostly mature).
But if I'm looking at CLV in terms of adding value to plays, then absolutely. If we think that the closing line is efficient, then it really doesn't matter how those extra 2 points came about? In the end, those 2 points just add to the +EV of the play. You obviously see doing something like this as a negative since you think they're using smoke and mirrors to enhance their CLV (if they are doing it), but I'd love it since it just gives the plays more value. I'd say that RAS has a proven track record of winning in the college sports marketplaces, but seems like the value of the service is enhanced if they're going to manipulate lines for me as well.
I agree with what you're saying.
I'm not disputing that it's +EV for the client, I just don't think it is any indicator of how solid the play is.
In what sense? Isn't the line really everything when it comes to making a play? In the old coin toss example, say that I bet "heads" from -105 up to +110 and then released it to my clients. It ended up closing at +100. That CLV might not show that I have any edge over the market when handicapping a coin toss, but it was certainly a solid play for my clients.
I'm guessing that your thoughts are that this "inflated" CLV (if it is in fact inflated) is making RAS look like better cappers than they actually are, when looking specifically at CLV. And maybe that's true, I don't know. But for me, I don't care how they get there, whether it's technical capping, info gathering, or setting up the line. I'd just want to get the strongest plays possible, and I'd say that getting a couple of extra points only adds to the strength.
Ed can I start a double reverse jinx thread for CBB? We need to change the mojo. Please!
I don't know how many credits I have left, but this is it for me too. Just too bad this year.
Do you still have a website?
I don't know how many more credit to buy to get thru the season but it already cost me 160 credit that just too much for me so I decide to jump off the ship miss a lot of line didn't get to win like other people so sad.
Play your own shit then, this isn't the Salvation fucking Army. The season isnt even half over yet and the guys won 14 st8 years or whatever. Give it some time. Maybe the issue is that you dont have a big enough bankroll to justify spending the amount needed to buy credits. Just a thought, not attacking you.
That why I said it too much for me so I jump off the ship maybe u have 7k to buy 400 credit to get thru the season but to me it just to much for a cbb season I might play my own shit to save that money rather pay for it and still don't know gonna make any money back and I think u not ras subscriber so u don't know when u need stay on the ship or jump off the ship
Sure he is but I doubt the majority of subs are. Just look at his pushes and slim victories and see how many of these subs are laughing.
We are hitting 55.63% overall (almost identical to our win rate over last 5 years coming in) and up +9.95 units for season. Last year we weren't above 5 units once in Nov-Dec and were -1.65 units on Jan 1st before finishing +16.00 units.
As for the overall cost, yes it is much higher than it has ever been, that is because we are releasing more types of plays at higher volume than we ever have. We used to sell sides only for the season for $2500-$3000. Right now sides only for the season is on pace to cost considerably less than that. If you want less volume/cost, simply pick the subset(s) of plays that work best for you based on your schedule and ability to get good lines.
We understand that not everyone can get the release lines consistently, and that losing on any game where the service had a different result is extremely frustrating. This is and likely will always be the biggest drawback of the service. However, for anyone who is still able to get the release lines consistently, the service is as strong as ever.
I dont play Ras plays no, I bet 100 a game tops. Not worth it for me. But I've been around this site long enough to know these same conversations happen every single year.
Thought there was about a 60% chance I'd be getting Rick-Rolled, so I'm pleasantly surprised.
Lololololololololololzzzzzz!