Betting Talk

Rook's Occasional NBA Plays

rookrook Senior Member
edited June 2017 in Sports Betting
My 7 previous calls can be found in Obi One's NBA 2016 Discussion thread, and I thought I would stop hijacking Obi One's thread and open up a new one which could be more sensibly used to make my calls. Coming into this post I am 3-4 for the season, just one game short of being as accurate as a blindfolded guy throwing darts at a line sheet.

The next call is for Warriors vs Clippers on 12/7/16. On Bookmaker right now the Warriors are favored -4. I jumped on this line early in the fear it would get higher as game time approaches. As a long-time Clippers fan I can vouch for the fact that the Clippers can stand toe-to-toe with the Warriors any day of the week, talent-wise. But the Clippers are a mentally and emotionally fragile team, and their only chance to win this game if they impose their will defensively throughout the game, the way they did with the Cavaliers last week. But at the same time the Clippers need to be tough, they are facing a tough situation where they are playing their 2nd game back home after an arduous 6-game coast-to-coast road trip. The combination of the Warriors increasingly hot offense with the Clippers tough settling-in-after-a-road-trip situation, lead me to believe the Clipper's defense, even if they try to use it tomorrow, will eventually crack and yield an easy win for the Warriors.
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Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    2nd game after a long road trip Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 7-24 Last few years Good Luck like the play.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Thanks Old-Timer
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Checking a couple of betting trends sites, they show a big majority (76%) of bets going on the Warriors. I guess the fact that the line isn't changing means the books think the Clippers will cover. The good news is the books don't know everything. The bad news is they know a lot more than I do...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Hey OT , is that subset with 2 days off before that 2nd game ??
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    rook wrote: »
    My 7 previous calls can be found in Obi One's NBA 2016 Discussion thread, and I thought I would stop hijacking Obi One's thread and open up a new one which could be more sensibly used to make my calls. Coming into this post I am 3-4 for the season, just one game short of being as accurate as a blindfolded guy throwing darts at a line sheet.

    Great that you started your own thread. If you're going to (semi-) regularly post picks, then this is the way the to go.

    The discussion thread is there for just that: discussions. It's not my thread. It's for everybody that wants to talk about anything concerning the NBA.

    Good luck.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    OK Obi, good luck to you as well, even though you picked the Clippers.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    jets96 wrote: »
    Hey OT , is that subset with 2 days off before that 2nd game ??

    No doesn't matter. Just one of many situations to look at like GS. is 9-2 with one day off with an average of 24 points in winning and cover the spread by almost 11. Thought the Clippers were going to have a big year but I don't see that anymore. If your going to bet this game and I'm not but I would play GS. ML -165

    Just a side note with GS when they have 2 or more days off there 0-4-1 and that happens on the 20th of this month against Utah and among other things it appears to be a great spot for Utah Right Now but a lot can change in that amount of time.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Thanks for the useful information Old-Timer. I would imagine George Hill will be back by the 20th as well...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    rook wrote: »
    Thanks for the useful information Old-Timer. I would imagine George Hill will be back by the 20th as well...

    Good job playing the Warriors. Nothing like a cigar game a Red Auerbach tradition.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Auerbach
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Thanks Old-Timer. I noticed the article didn't say that every time Red lit up his victory cigar, the Celtics went on to win. A lot of times when Chris Paul loses, his face just gets more and more furious until the whole experience seems to get so painful for him that he then goes from fury to a kind of angry detachment. I never noticed him doing that last night so I never felt like lighting up a cigar, until Doc took the stars out for the last time with a couple minutes left in the game. But this year Chris Paul and Griffin both just seem a little bit more detached in general.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    They did cut it to 7 at one point but GS just blew it up again. Home team will always make that run but IMO game was never in doubt after the first quarter. The Clips committed nine TO's in the first quarter if I remember right kinda tough to beat GS that way. Cancel the season and go right to the finals barring injury it's Cleveland and GS again. Good luck with future bets look forward to seeing what you like.

    I almost missed it to.

    Famous for his polarizing nature, he was well known for smoking a cigar (illegal today) when he thought a victory was assured, a habit that became, for many, "the ultimate symbol of victory" during his Boston tenure.[2]
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Yes but there's nothing there that says Red never lit up a cigar once or twice and the Celtics ended up losing. Thanks again Old-Timer.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    The Kings have just finished what was supposed to be a 6-game road trip, but because of a game postponement vs the Seventysixers, they only played 5 games. Coming back home after these long trips tends to throw a team off, and the Kings seems to be one of those teams that doesn't respond well to this situation. To me as a rule the Kings are a tough team to bet on or against because Cousins can range from unstoppable on offense to a total zero on defense. I'm looking for today's situation to cause Cousins enough frustration (from early turnovers, fouls) so that he throws this game under the bus. I don't know the Knicks well but they seem to be taking winning more seriously this year, much more seriously than the Kings. At this time, it appears Rose won't play for the Knicks and Barnes won't play for the Kings.
    Knicks +5.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Last minute money moved the line to 5.5 . Another bad omen...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    5-4 at this point, much better than a sharp stick in the eye. Old-Timer brought in some good luck along with the good information.

    Next pick is Chicago at -10.5 over Miami. Miami seems to have so many things going against them that betting against them feels like a trap. They are on the second game of a BtoB, 4th in 5 games. Last night they only had 9 guys available to play, but then Udonis Haslem dropped out. In the 3rd quarter Spoelstra pulled Whiteside for playing like a lazy bum. Whiteside told the press his knee hurt. James Johnson, Justice Winslow and Dion Waiters are all out for sure. Josh Richardson is listed as questionable.

    I am also hoping that Wade still wants to sock it to Miami on the court. One blogger mentioned a lot of this and then said take Miami anyway because the Bulls don't win by more than 10 points. But 5 out of their 11 wins this season have exceeded 10 points.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    rook wrote: »
    5-4 at this point, much better than a sharp stick in the eye. Old-Timer brought in some good luck along with the good information.

    Next pick is Chicago at -10.5 over Miami. Miami seems to have so many things going against them that betting against them feels like a trap. They are on the second game of a BtoB, 4th in 5 games. Last night they only had 9 guys available to play, but then Udonis Haslem dropped out. In the 3rd quarter Spoelstra pulled Whiteside for playing like a lazy bum. Whiteside told the press his knee hurt. James Johnson, Justice Winslow and Dion Waiters are all out for sure. Josh Richardson is listed as questionable.

    I am also hoping that Wade still wants to sock it to Miami on the court. One blogger mentioned a lot of this and then said take Miami anyway because the Bulls don't win by more than 10 points. But 5 out of their 11 wins this season have exceeded 10 points.

    Great Minds, played them last night at the same line. I'm surprised I'm seeing 10 now and do expect this to go higher. Also like Portland with Indy in a bad spot. Like Portland but really liked them with Portland as slight dog. I also like Utah with Sac being in a terrible spot. Lineups look good as of now. Sac playing into an angle were it's 17-34 recently and 82-134 going back. Good Luck
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    I'm torn on The Kings because even though my bet won last night, it looked like (watching the play-by-play lines) it was because the Knicks played well rather than being a matter of the Kings committing turnovers or dumb fouls or missing free throws because of their tough scheduling situation. But I guess the 2nd game back from a long road trip can also be the killer for a team, and here we also have the Kings coming into high altitude after a late flight and the 2nd of a BtoB . It's the Jazz that is bothering me because it seems like George Hill keeps them from getting too squirrelly, and he's still not back yet, and Hood missing as well. I'll probably regret when I check out the scores later on and see the Kings down by 30 in the first quarter...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Boy I screwed up that last play. 5-5 now for the season. Today's play has its own dangers, mainly because it is quick without much time to try to look at different angles: Houston -8 first half vs Sac. Houston looks like they have established a pretty healthy lead each of the last 7 first halfs they have played, and today's Sac team should not be any more difficult to dominate, with Cousins, Gay, and McClemore all sitting out tonight. Still an hour before game time, I'm hoping D'antoni doesn't suddenly announce that he's resting Harden, Gordon and Beverley...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Last bet won, rocketed me back up to 6-5, as good or better than the blindfolded guy and his darts. Today is the Warriors, 1st half, -8.5 points (-115) to beat Portland. The idea here is that on any given day, the Warriors might easily be that far ahead at the half against anybody (though they seem to finish more of their games this season losing ground rather than gaining it). But today I am hoping for extra help because of a difficult Trailblazers schedule. They were on the road for 5 games, went as far East as Milwaukee, then came back and didn't show much fatigue as they trounced the Thunder in Portland. But then the fatigue seemed to play a role (along with altitude) when the Blazers got trounced in another road game in Denver. Now they have yet another road game in Oakland, a place that is difficult enough for a rested team...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    7-5 at this point. In December games, the Clippers have gone 5-3 over 212 points, the Wizards have gone 6-2 over 212 in December. I'm not seeing anything to indicate any special defense being played today. For instance the game does not appear to be nationally televised. So I am going with the Over 212.5 on this game...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Good Luck Rook, nice to see you back
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Thanks Old-Timer! Total dropped from 216 to 212.5, which I guess is partly because Luc Mbah Moute turns out to be playing today, but might also be because somebody smarter than me know the teams aren't going to score high today...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Where are you rook, Played Detroit tonight and a couple of 1st Half Under's. Been doing very well with the first half but it's been mostly over's with my reworked numbers. Tonight they say Under 1st half on Atlanta/OKC and Phoe/Minn. three plays tonight.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Hey OT cash your ticket now i took chi -2.5 ....either way good luck brother

    sorry rook
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    No problem jets96! Old-Timer, good luck on Detroit. I was leaning that way too but Detroit seems to be having some kind of problem with Reggie Jackson coming back. Team discord or something. Thanks for the tips on the unders!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Good Call Jets. 1-2 for me.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    No doesn't matter. Just one of many situations to look at like GS. is 9-2 with one day off with an average of 24 points in winning and cover the spread by almost 11. Thought the Clippers were going to have a big year but I don't see that anymore. If your going to bet this game and I'm not but I would play GS. ML -165

    Just a side note with GS when they have 2 or more days off there 0-4-1 and that happens on the 20th of this month against Utah and among other things it appears to be a great spot for Utah Right Now but a lot can change in that amount of time.

    So Old-Timer, what do you think about Jazz vs Warriors at this point? The Jazz still don't have George Hill, and the Warriors seem to be getting more and more dominating...BookMaker is showing -12 and 209.5 right now for that game...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    I can make a case for Utah tonight. Utah lost by 7 @Home on Dec 8 getting off to a terrible start trailing 35-17 after the 1st Q and wound up losing 106-99 holding GS to there 2nd lowest scoring game at that time by giving up 71 points the next three Q's. That game besides Hill they had no Hayward, Hood and Favors. GS finally covered a game after five no covers and there on a streak of seven Under's. I'll make a play against an inflated number IMO

    I like two plays tonight in addition. Under in the Knick/Indy game and Over in the Cleve/Milw game I played them earlier and picked-up a better line that' s showing but U209.5 and O212 are still worth a play.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    I was thinking the Knicks were in a bad situation, first game back from 5 road games stretching all the way back to the west coast. But the Pacers are on the second game of a BtoB, and they seem to really handle those badly. If both teams are out of sorts, maybe that translates into an under. But then again, some teams, when they get out of sorts, the first thing they do is abandon all defense, leading to an over. I don't know these teams well enough to bet on how they specifically tend to react to fatigue.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Spurs vs Rockets seems like it might have some value to it. Capela is out. I guess that moved the Spurs from 1-point dogs to 1-point favorites. But Capela seems like one of those guys who does so much of the Rockets' work, there might be a greater swing in how the game ends, with him out...
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