I'm not clear on your meaning -- are you having a hard time finding a -9 bet on the Spurs or just inquiring about my capping methods (which are very basic).
I actually took the Spurs at -7.5 last night but I didn't want to post a line that wasn't current. If the Spurs don't win by more than 12 I would consider my evaluation of the game to be incorrect. But I don't make my own lines in the capping sense. I look for lines that just don't seem right, and then I try to figure out if the line doesn't make sense because I'm totally missing something, or because maybe the line just isn't right.
3 vague ideas as to where I fumbled: 1) Failed to consider Spurs were on 1st game of BtoB 2) Maybe Spurs were partying like hell in New York and I incorrectly assumed they wouldn't be doing that 3) Underestimated how tired the Spurs would be on the 4th game of their road trip -- they were lifeless.
Gotta try to pick myself up and dust myself off: Won't have the quarter numbers from BookMaker till tomorrow, but 1st half of the Nets vs Grizzlies is Nets +5 right now. So the first quarter should be +2 to +3 for the Nets. As far as I can tell, in 28 away games the Grizzlies have outscored their opponents in the 1st quarter by more than 2 points, 6 of the 28 times. The last Grizzlies opponent was the Warriors, so it's got to be hard for the Grizzlies to get all psyched up right off the bat vs. the lowly Nets. Most teams lose ATS in their next game after playing the Warriors, and with the Memphis tendency to come out slow in the 1st quarter in away games, the bet (depending on the BookMaker 1st quarter line) will probably be Nets 1st quarter.
Another very bad (Nets vs Grizzlies 1st quarter +3) call on my part...
Going for the first half tonight, the Kings vs Warriors. Warriors +11. Have my doubts, because the Warriors historically don't do that well ATS leading into the All-star break. However, they did get beaten by the Kings in their previous game, and the Warriors are fresh off a loss to the Nuggets, so I am hoping they will be more motivated than they usually are heading into the break...
Your absolutely right with the Warriors being 0-5 the game before the All-Star break with an avg Lay 13.3. Thompson is suppose to play which helps with there rotation. Good Luck. +11 with the Warriors is always a good thing
Thanks again Old-Timer! I guess part of any advantage there was in betting on the Warriors was the Kings BtoB status, but I kind of negated that advantage by betting on the first half instead of the whole game. Last few weeks have been filled with under-researched and over-hurried bets. I need to take some time off until I get some joie de vivre back into my sports betting approach!
Trying to get back up on the horse that broke my leg. Lakers, bad as they are, are even worse lately at 1st quarters. as far as I can tell, the Lakers haven't outscored an opponent in the first quarter for the past 13 games. In 2 of those 13 games they were within 1 point, and 4 points of their opponents. Now today the bet is that a largely rested Cavaliers team will beat the Lakers by more than 4 points in the 1st quarter...
I'm back even with the blind man and his darts. Trying another 1st quarter bet. The Clippers appear to be rousing themselves to get ready for the postseason, especially defense-wise. I don't expect that Nick Young or DeAngelo Russell will shred the Clipper defense as easily as Russell did against the turn-it-on-in-the-4th-quarter Cavs: Clippers -3, 1st quarter vs Lakers.
Got my first win in 2 months. Hopefully the lid is off the basket now. Today's play is Clippers -5.5 first quarter vs Lakers. Lakers have been having 1st quarter troubles lately, and the Clippers have gotten in the habit of dismantling the Lakers in the first quarter anyway, over the past couple of years...
Tristan Thompson is out as the Cavs go on the road to Boston, playing the second of a B2B, which they are not good at doing. But for me it s the Tristan Thompson absence. The guy who does all the actual work. I'm thinking there's no way the Cavs don't get beaten badly with this guy not playing...Boston -4 vs Cleveland...
Another stab at stats: Rockets have played Thunder 5 times this year, and outscored them in the third quarter by 7, 5, 3, 3, and 10. So Rockets -2 third quarter bet...
I'm going to try to ride this horse again. It's worked now 5 times in a row, why not a sixth time? Rockets 3rd quarter PK.
Just to play devils advocate... Thunder were up comfortably in the 3Q last game and blew it completely as OKC put Westbrook on the bench up 12 points for last 3 minutes. Tonight is do or die, I don't expect Westbrook will sit 1 second of the 3Q tonight due to the way OKC fell apart late 3Q last game.
Just to play devils advocate... Thunder were up comfortably in the 3Q last game and blew it completely as OKC put Westbrook on the bench up 12 points for last 3 minutes. Tonight is do or die, I don't expect Westbrook will sit 1 second of the 3Q tonight due to the way OKC fell apart late 3Q last game.
I completely agree with what you are saying. But the impression I came away with was that okc wouldn't run Westbrook the entire 48 minutes, even in do-or-die mode, because he gets too worn out for the end of the game. That's the impression I got from watching his shooting the last few minutes of the 4th quarter of the last game. But you are right, in the scenario where Westbrook doesn't rest at all in the third quarter, the basic premise of the bet is pretty much trashed...
Sweet Jones was essentially correct last game: Russ actually did get his 3 minutes rest but 2 minutes of it got re-distributed into the 4th quarter. Today I want to take advantage of Toront's opening playoff series game issues with 3rf quarter -- Cavaliers -1.5 in 3rd quarter.
The only thing I had non-live for the 2 series currently still being played was that the Wizards were always winning the 1st quarter. That got blown up last game and I'm wondering whether to try going back to it again...
Back to the dartboard: Warriors vs Cavaliers game 1 Q1 Under 58 ; Both teams should be nervous, both teams should be working hard on defense, and either/both could easily be a little rusty...
Just to close out the year: 21 wins, 22 losses was the final tally. A small sample size but still pretty adherent to the basic laws of random probability. Going to come back next season and do better!
Comments
i took them also , only because my line is 10.55 i need a 2 pts or less var. to consider a play.
good luck
3 vague ideas as to where I fumbled: 1) Failed to consider Spurs were on 1st game of BtoB 2) Maybe Spurs were partying like hell in New York and I incorrectly assumed they wouldn't be doing that 3) Underestimated how tired the Spurs would be on the 4th game of their road trip -- they were lifeless.
Gotta try to pick myself up and dust myself off: Won't have the quarter numbers from BookMaker till tomorrow, but 1st half of the Nets vs Grizzlies is Nets +5 right now. So the first quarter should be +2 to +3 for the Nets. As far as I can tell, in 28 away games the Grizzlies have outscored their opponents in the 1st quarter by more than 2 points, 6 of the 28 times. The last Grizzlies opponent was the Warriors, so it's got to be hard for the Grizzlies to get all psyched up right off the bat vs. the lowly Nets. Most teams lose ATS in their next game after playing the Warriors, and with the Memphis tendency to come out slow in the 1st quarter in away games, the bet (depending on the BookMaker 1st quarter line) will probably be Nets 1st quarter.
1st quarter, Nets +3 vs. Grizzlies ...
Another very bad (Nets vs Grizzlies 1st quarter +3) call on my part...
Going for the first half tonight, the Kings vs Warriors. Warriors +11. Have my doubts, because the Warriors historically don't do that well ATS leading into the All-star break. However, they did get beaten by the Kings in their previous game, and the Warriors are fresh off a loss to the Nuggets, so I am hoping they will be more motivated than they usually are heading into the break...
Trying to get back up on the horse that broke my leg. Lakers, bad as they are, are even worse lately at 1st quarters. as far as I can tell, the Lakers haven't outscored an opponent in the first quarter for the past 13 games. In 2 of those 13 games they were within 1 point, and 4 points of their opponents. Now today the bet is that a largely rested Cavaliers team will beat the Lakers by more than 4 points in the 1st quarter...
I'm back even with the blind man and his darts. Trying another 1st quarter bet. The Clippers appear to be rousing themselves to get ready for the postseason, especially defense-wise. I don't expect that Nick Young or DeAngelo Russell will shred the Clipper defense as easily as Russell did against the turn-it-on-in-the-4th-quarter Cavs: Clippers -3, 1st quarter vs Lakers.
Got my first win in 2 months. Hopefully the lid is off the basket now. Today's play is Clippers -5.5 first quarter vs Lakers. Lakers have been having 1st quarter troubles lately, and the Clippers have gotten in the habit of dismantling the Lakers in the first quarter anyway, over the past couple of years...
Tristan Thompson is out as the Cavs go on the road to Boston, playing the second of a B2B, which they are not good at doing. But for me it s the Tristan Thompson absence. The guy who does all the actual work. I'm thinking there's no way the Cavs don't get beaten badly with this guy not playing...Boston -4 vs Cleveland...
Another stab at stats: Rockets have played Thunder 5 times this year, and outscored them in the third quarter by 7, 5, 3, 3, and 10. So Rockets -2 third quarter bet...
I'm going to try to ride this horse again. It's worked now 5 times in a row, why not a sixth time? Rockets 3rd quarter PK.
Just to play devils advocate... Thunder were up comfortably in the 3Q last game and blew it completely as OKC put Westbrook on the bench up 12 points for last 3 minutes. Tonight is do or die, I don't expect Westbrook will sit 1 second of the 3Q tonight due to the way OKC fell apart late 3Q last game.
I completely agree with what you are saying. But the impression I came away with was that okc wouldn't run Westbrook the entire 48 minutes, even in do-or-die mode, because he gets too worn out for the end of the game. That's the impression I got from watching his shooting the last few minutes of the 4th quarter of the last game. But you are right, in the scenario where Westbrook doesn't rest at all in the third quarter, the basic premise of the bet is pretty much trashed...
Sweet Jones was essentially correct last game: Russ actually did get his 3 minutes rest but 2 minutes of it got re-distributed into the 4th quarter. Today I want to take advantage of Toront's opening playoff series game issues with 3rf quarter -- Cavaliers -1.5 in 3rd quarter.
Last bet would have won in any quarter except the fourth... Next bet for tonight is Golden State Q1 -3.
Another 1st quarter bet: Wizards Q1 +1.5
Rockets -7 tonight. Basically betting against Kawhi Leonard's ankle...
Note to self: don't bet on a Harden team in the latter stages of a playoff series. Next bet: the Warriors Q1 -4.
Back to the dartboard: Warriors vs Cavaliers game 1 Q1 Under 58 ; Both teams should be nervous, both teams should be working hard on defense, and either/both could easily be a little rusty...