Betting Talk

Rook's Occasional NBA Plays

2

Comments

  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    I'll go ahead make that my play for today. I'm at 8-5 currently, and playing Spurs -1 vs Rockets...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    rook wrote: »
    Spurs vs Rockets seems like it might have some value to it. Capela is out. I guess that moved the Spurs from 1-point dogs to 1-point favorites. But Capela seems like one of those guys who does so much of the Rockets' work, there might be a greater swing in how the game ends, with him out...

    Agree with that statement it's a bigger loss then most people think. Good Luck
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    rook wrote: »
    I was thinking the Knicks were in a bad situation, first game back from 5 road games stretching all the way back to the west coast. But the Pacers are on the second game of a BtoB, and they seem to really handle those badly. If both teams are out of sorts, maybe that translates into an under. But then again, some teams, when they get out of sorts, the first thing they do is abandon all defense, leading to an over. I don't know these teams well enough to bet on how they specifically tend to react to fatigue.

    Indy is also playing 5 in 7 with two B2B's and 4 of the 5 playing to the Under Among a few other things I like about the play. The one thing I don't like it appears to me anyway that playing the Under in what I call the new NBA is dangerous.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    9-5 now, but that was a bad bet that got really lucky...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    rook wrote: »
    9-5 now, but that was a bad bet that got really lucky...

    Just add one for the good guys we lose them like that also. I'm getting lucky on the College side but if I make another under I hope somebody cuts my hands off.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    At 9-5, next bet is 1st half Cle/GS under 112.5. Lebron is 8-1 o/u on Xmas games. Also, it appears from the Nets boxscore that Cle took the time to throttle the nets defensively for the first three quarters, presumably as preparation for this game...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    10-5 so far this season. Next game is Jazz vs Lakers . The Jazz have dominated the Lakers in the first half of 2 games they have played so far. The Jazz are still without George Hill and Alec Burks, but those guys have been practicing with the team lately and so that perhaps gives the Jazz some optimism. In the mean time the team has been upset with itself for letting some games slip by that they could have won, and thereby fortified their record. In the mean time, the Lakers are on the 2nd game back from a 7-game cross country road trip, they just got done beating the Clippers on Christmas Day, so hopefully there is some fuzziness on their part for tonight's' game. I'm picking the Jazz -2.5 first half...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    10-6 now. Overestimated the effects of the 7-game road trip on the baby Lakers, and under-estimated the squirreliness of the Jazz when George Hill isn't keeping them focused..

    Next is another 1st half bet, this one on Cavaliers -3.5 over Boston. The full game last night was 6, which is how many points the Cavaliers beat the Celtics by on 11/3/16. But the Celtics were actually down by 17 at the half in that game. I'm looking for a similar pattern tonight where the Cavaliers start out strong but the Celtics keep fighting back, with the Cavaliers' biggest lead coming well before the game ends.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    11-6 for the season so far. Next pick looks dangerous because it seems so completely clear cut to me, and that usually means I'm missing something obvious. 1st half bet, Rockets -5.5 vs Clippers. (-115 on BookMaker). Rotoworld is reporting Chris Paul as not playing tonight, and it kind of seems to me that the Rockets playing at home (Beverley reported as playing) will win by an infinite number of points. The only problem I am able to see beforehand is maybe I should be betting full game, my only excuse being that 9.5 points makes me nervous (even though 9.5 is a lot less than infinite). But Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are the heads of the snake, and so far, without either player on the court, the Clippers are kind of directionless...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    12-6. Today looks like a rinse and repeat, with some variables changed. 1st half, Thunder -5 vs Clippers. Chris Paul is currently listed as doubtful, so the possibility he still plays could cause problems. The Thunder are not nearly as explosive as the Rockets, who might well have blasted the Clippers last night even if Chris Paul had been healthy. But hopefully Raymond Felton used up all his energy last night bringing the Clippers back within 6 points during the second half, and some of the other Clippers could be tired as well. Wesley Johnson is listed as questionable. Oladipo will be back, playing for the Thunder. There's enough going against the Clippers that this bet should slide through OK, though probably not as comfortably as last night's bet...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    I'm not taking back the bet, but looking at it again, I don't feel great about it -- the Thunder rarely seem to lead anybody by more the 5 points at halftime...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    13-6 so far this season. Today's bet is on 2 teams I don't know well and trust even less. 1st half, Kings vs Nuggets, Kings +1. Teams coming off a game with the Warriors on 0 days rest are 6-19 against the spread...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    even with that the market bet up den from 1.5 to 3 ...luck
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    jets96 wrote: »
    even with that the market bet up den from 1.5 to 3 ...luck

    Thanks jets96. In betwen selecting the bet and confirming it they changed the 1st half line to +1.5 . If the actual score ends up at +1 I'll be glad to take the push in this thread.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    OK, back to trying to pick a winning side bet, now at 14-6 for the season: I wish I had more evidence behind me on this bet, my basis is a bit weak for betting on the Warriors -12 vs the Kings. Basically, the Warriors have been goofing around quite a bit in 4th quarters so far this season, and this finally came to a head vs the Grizzlies last game when they dropped a huge lead in the 4th quarter and lost in overtime. So my expectation (hope) is that the Warriors, instead of goofing around in the 4th quarter tonight, and allowing yet another backdoor cover, will instead turn the jets on hotter and pile on some extra points at the end of the game...
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Good Luck rook
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Good Luck rook

    Thanks Old-Timer! I needed some luck because I called it wrong. But the coin landed on the wrong side this time around. Hope the bets are cashing for you.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    rook wrote: »
    Thanks Old-Timer! I needed some luck because I called it wrong. But the coin landed on the wrong side this time around. Hope the bets are cashing for you.

    It hasn't been a good year nothing serious but it seems the NBA is playing like a video game and after getting beat up in the early part of the season it's been a little slow playing catch-up. Hopefully I'll get there and if not O-well 2016 was a big year and will move on.
    The plays are solid and your reasoning's are also so best of luck moving forward and I do enjoy reading your posts.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Double Post, sorry
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    OK, now at 14-7. Couldn't resist this next bet because Chicago just lost scorer after scorer after scorer -- Butler sick, Wade resting, Dunleavy traded, and now Mirotic is out. So Wizards -11.5 vs Bulls. Probably Valentine and Lopez will step up and score 100 points between them, because that's what usually happens when a team looks totally eviscerated by fortune and circumstances. But if they do score 100 points between them, I tip my hat to them...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Didn't get to see the game, but the line score looked like it was a Tuesday-night-in-January-with-a-game-tomorrow-night-what's-the-least-we-can-do-and-still-win? type of game, and the bet was a lousy bet...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Moving in the wrong direction--> 14-8. Next bet is based on watching the Pistons play against the Warriors, then play the Jazz next day, and also watching the Lakers play vs the Clippers today. The Pistons appear to be a serious team with internal strife that is suffering from fatigue as well as a couple of injuries. Even so they managed to match up with both the Warriors and the Jazz for at least the first half of their games, before they collapsed. Now with a day of rest under their belts, they face the Lakers, who just got clobbered by the Clippers on the front end of a BtoB.

    The bet is 1st half, -.5 Pistons vs Lakers. My hope is that sticking with 1st half will avoid whatever emerging trend the Pistons are showing in collapsing during the 2nd half, and if the Pistons were able hang with Warriors and the Jazz for the first half of those games, then the Pistons should be able to get at least a 1-point lead over the Lakers in the first 24 minutes.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Bad bet, but lucky break helped me win the ensuing coin toss, putting me at 15-8 for the season. Been a while since I made a pick that won without depending on one last shot going in or out. Maybe today can be my day:

    Going for the half-time spread (-5) For Golden State. -5 is pretty steep, especially compared to the -7.5/-8 full game spread. I guess a -4 spread would have drawn more Warriors' 1st half bets than the books wanted to handle, and/or would have been too easy for the Warriors to cover. I like 1st half bets anyway, but the way the Warriors have collapsed in the second half vs the Cavaliers and the Grizzlies gives me a little more reason for going this route.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    That last bet was the first in a long time that went down easy, to get me to 16-8. I'm making a quick jump on this next bet (which I might regret) playing the Warriors at -8.5 for the first half vs the Thunder. I feel like the only 2 things I need to know are that 1) Steven Adams isn't playing tonight and 2) The Warriors should still be on guard to make sure Durant beats his old team as thoroughly as possible.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    YTD: 16-9

    Maybe one reason the Clippers kept womping all over the Thunder even after Chris Paul dropped out was because the Thunder were saving their energy for the Warriors. They then used all that energy up in the first half last night, making my first half bet a bad one.

    Next bet: Phoenix Suns 1st half +7.5 vs Cavaliers. This is a convergence of Cleveland having its first day home off of a long road trip, which can be problematic, along with the fact that so far teams coming off a double-digit loss to the Warriors in their previous game are 6-15 ATS. Love is hurting, and what team would the Cavaliers tend to coast on, if not the Suns, who they just recently beat a week and a half ago. At least for the first half, I am hoping...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    YTD: 16-10

    Didn't see the Suns vs. the Cavaliers, but I think the Cavaliers took matters into their own hands and that was that. I shouldn't be surprised given that the Cavaliers were already building up so many losses -- why should they want to coast?

    Next bet is the Grizzlies +1.5 over the Rockets at -115. Houston looked really ragged to me in the 2nd half last night. They have played a lot of games in not so many days. Grizzlies have beaten them twice already this season, once home and once away. This should work, but gotta hope the Grizzlies don't decide to go easy on the grinding tonight...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    YTD: 16-11

    That last bet on Memphis was horrendous, but I'm hoping for better from them today. They rested Randolph and Carter on Wednesday, presumably looking forward to the Warriors tonight. In the mean time, the Warriors will be playing the Thunder tomorrow night. Pachulia and West are out, perhaps making the Warriors more vulnerable to the Grizzlies game plan: Grizzlies -7.5.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    rook wrote: »
    YTD: 16-11

    That last bet on Memphis was horrendous, but I'm hoping for better from them today. They rested Randolph and Carter on Wednesday, presumably looking forward to the Warriors tonight. In the mean time, the Warriors will be playing the Thunder tomorrow night. Pachulia and West are out, perhaps making the Warriors more vulnerable to the Grizzlies game plan: Grizzlies -7.5.

    you obviously mean the Grizz +7.5?
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    Oops! Yes, thanks for pointing that out!
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    YTD: 16-12

    If I couldn't even type the odds correctly then how was I going to make the right pick? It was an omen. I think I correctly figured out that Memphis would be motivated, but I badly misjudged how much the Warriors (especially Thompson and Green) would overlook that last game game. Today's bet is Spurs at -9...
Sign In or Register to comment.