Betting Talk

Random Pool Theory Question (Horse Racing)

TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
edited December 2016 in Sports Betting
I'm doing a fantasy horse racing pool tomorrow. Everyone in the pool gets a fake $100 to play with, you can only do win bets, min is $25 and max is $100 (so can put it all on one race, spread it across 4 races, or something in between). The expectation is that about 20-25 people will be in it. And it's winner take all.

What is my best option? Obviously the strategy will be different between a pool with 2-3 people and a pool of this type with 10k entrants. At ~25 entrants, any thoughts on what I need to target in terms of $ to win it? I was thinking about putting it all on a horse in the 7-1 to 10-1 range, thinking that something around 800-1000 might be enough to win it while still giving myself a reasonable chance of hitting my play. It'll suck if someone else comes in with a 15-1 winner, but I don't think that I need to be looking at a complete longshot.

Any thoughts from a theory standpoint on how to play it?

Comments

  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2016
    TommyL wrote: »
    I'm doing a fantasy horse racing pool tomorrow. Everyone in the pool gets a fake $100 to play with, you can only do win bets, min is $25 and max is $100 (so can put it all on one race, spread it across 4 races, or something in between). The expectation is that about 20-25 people will be in it. And it's winner take all.

    What is my best option? Obviously the strategy will be different between a pool with 2-3 people and a pool of this type with 10k entrants. At ~25 entrants, any thoughts on what I need to target in terms of $ to win it? I was thinking about putting it all on a horse in the 7-1 to 10-1 range, thinking that something around 800-1000 might be enough to win it while still giving myself a reasonable chance of hitting my play. It'll suck if someone else comes in with a 15-1 winner, but I don't think that I need to be looking at a complete longshot.

    Any thoughts from a theory standpoint on how to play it?

    With only 20-25 people. if someone gets to $800, tip your cap and say good job. Since it sounds like you can't re-bet winnings, the only people getting that high are playing it the same way you describe, bet it all on a mid-range longshot and hope you hit it. I'd look for a play between 4-1 to 6-1ish and put $80 on it(if you find two at 7-1 to 9-1ish I would go 40 on each), and find a bigger longshot and put the other $20 on it. I'd take my chances trying to get to 300-400. If someone beats that, they took a shot and popped a bomb. If there were 1000 people in it, it is the way to play, but with 20-25, you just need a mid score. I've seen these smaller contest where no one broke even, 200 could easily be a winning number.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited December 2016
    StevieY wrote: »
    With only 20-25 people. if someone gets to $800, tip your cap and say good job. Since it sounds like you can't re-bet winnings, the only people getting that high are playing it the same way you describe, bet it all on a mid-range longshot and hope you hit it. I'd look for a play between 4-1 to 6-1ish and put $80 on it(if you find two at 7-1 to 9-1ish I would go 40 on each), and find a bigger longshot and put the other $20 on it. I'd take my chances trying to get to 300-400. If someone beats that, they took a shot and popped a bomb. If there were 1000 people in it, it is the way to play, but with 20-25, you just need a mid score. I've seen these smaller contest where no one broke even, 200 could easily be a winning number.

    Thanks. I almost either e-mailed you or posted a subject of "Question for StevieY", but figured I'd see if anyone else has any input. I used to do a monthly one like this where 1st and 2nd got paid and there were yearly winners over the 12 months, but this is a one-time deal so was trying to figure out exactly how to modify my strategy.
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